Teams to watch in Christian McCaffrey trade talks include Bills, 49ers

Despite a litany of media reports suggesting otherwise, the Christian McCaffrey trade talks are in the early stages of a junior high prom: More staring and waiting than actual dancing.

Right now, that’s the proper framing of talks involving the All-Pro Carolina Panthers running back.

There’s an emphasis on “right now” because things can change quickly. But any potential deal has a long way to go through before the league’s Nov. 1 trade deadline. At the moment, there are a handful of interested teams checking in. Not one has made a concrete offer. That includes the Buffalo Bills, who despite reports of a pursuit, are also taking a wait-and-see posture. We’ll get to the particulars of how a deal can come together — and who could be in play — but first, let’s unwrap some context surrounding McCaffrey and current interest.

How the Bills figure in potential trade talks

Last week started with the Panthers firing head coach Matt Rhule on Monday, followed by dueling reports about whether or not the Bills and Panthers were having discussions about McCaffrey. Both denied being engaged in talks. A more pertinent question was whether or not the Panthers and Bills had previous conversations about the running back. The answer is yes.

During the offseason, the Bills checked in on McCaffrey’s availability. The inquiry ultimately went nowhere. There wasn’t a trade offer or even a spitballed discussion about what assets would need to be on the table. And since that exchange concluded in the offseason, the Bills and Panthers have not discussed McCaffrey’s trade availability beyond one simple parameter: If Carolina decides to trade him, Buffalo would appreciate a courtesy call so it can decide whether it wants to be involved.

As of this week, that’s the same stance of a handful of other teams that called the Panthers following the report of Buffalo’s interest. Much like the Bills, other teams would like to be involved if McCaffrey is going to be made available. They also haven’t made any offers.

This is a fairly natural posture for NFL teams when there is two weeks of runway before the trade deadline and nobody wants to open talks by bidding against themselves. Once the deadline gets closer and the luxury of waiting vanishes, that could change, especially if it becomes clearer what Carolina wants for McCaffrey.

Multiple first-round draft picks isn't realistic for Panthers

So who is interested and what are the Panthers seeking?

The teams interested in McCaffrey are trying to conceal themselves at this point, but they fit a similar template. Look for the well-built franchises that are ready to contend for a Super Bowl this season, then circle the ones that appear to be one dynamic running back away from significantly improving their title shot.

The Bills fit. So do the San Francisco 49ers, along with a small handful of others.

Ultimately, the question is going to come down to the assets offered for McCaffrey. In terms of tradable commodities, the Panthers are approaching him more as a pocket listing than someone being actively shopped on the trade market. If teams want to make an offer, Carolina will entertain it. They’ll also do so knowing two things about his value: He’s a player who could be significantly helpful if the team decides to make a run at one of the elite quarterbacks in the 2023 draft; and he’s an attractive player to keep in the fold for whoever the head coach is next season.

If that’s interim head coach Steve Wilks, he’s already familiar with McCaffrey representing the best player he currently has on his offense. If it’s another coach the Panthers are attempting to hire, McCaffrey remains a player who can be viewed as a selling point. Not to mention the reality that his contract starts becoming far easier to offload if necessary after the 2023 season.

The next two weeks should sharpen what it will ultimately take to get McCaffrey in a deal, but it’s safe to say that the early proclamations of “multiple” first-round draft picks is inaccurate. While that may be the hopes and dreams of team owner David Tepper — who is going to be the one making the final call — Carolina is not getting that kind of package for McCaffrey.

For now, it’s better to think of McCaffrey’s value in terms of how his trade could set Carolina up for a future quarterback pursuit. Resolving the quarterback spot is the No. 1 priority for the organization. If a team offers a package of trade assets that get the Panthers closer to being in play for the draft’s top two quarterbacks, then it will likely be viewed as a realistic offer.

Anything less is going to leave the Panthers where they are now: Stuck at the junior prom and staring at dance partners, with nobody making the move that matters.