Which team in the Pac-12 is best set up for season-long success in 2022?

·4 min read

One thing that we do each week after the slate of games in the college football world has come to an end is put out our weekly edition of the Pac-12 Power Rankings. It is a way to assess how each team in the conference played in the days before and gives us a good look at where they stand among the other teams in the conference. So far, teams like Oregon State and Washington State have done well for themselves relative to their place ahead of the season, while schools like Colorado and Oregon have struggled early on.

We wanted to take another look at where the power balance stands in the Pac-12, though. While our rankings at Ducks Wire give a good sense of who is good and who is bad, they are inherently biased. We cover one of the Pac-12 teams each week, and no matter how hard we try to be completely objective, there are opinions that shape our views.

That is not the case with the ESPN Football Power Index, which is a tool that I often refer to throughout the football season. As a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. ESPN also uses it to predict outcomes of games, and give a percent chance for how successful a team will be come season’s end.

It updates each and every week after the results are finalized, and we keep track of where it holds the Ducks in accordance with the best teams in the nation.

I wanted to see where it feels the best teams in the Pac-12 stand. Here are some interesting numbers that I gleaned from the FPI for each team:

  • Chance to Win Out

  • Chance to Make a Bowl Game

  • Chance to Win the Conference

  • Chance to Make the College Football Playoff

  • Chance to Make and Win the National Championship

With those things in mind, let’s see where ESPN ranks the teams in the Pac-12 from worst to best:

Colorado Buffaloes

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: -10.3

National FPI Rank: 104

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 0.0%

Conference Championship: 0.0%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Arizona Wildcats

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: -2.2

National FPI Rank: 80

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 23.2%

Conference Championship: 0.1%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Washington State Cougars

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: -1.4

National FPI Rank: 76

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 54.9%

Conference Championship: 0.1%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

California Golden Bears

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: -1.0

National FPI Rank: 74

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 53.5%

Conference Championship: 0.2%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Stanford Cardinals

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 1.3

National FPI Rank: 62

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 21.8%

Conference Championship: 0.0%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Arizona State Sun Devils

Bryan Terry-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 3.9

National FPI Rank: 53

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 73.4%

Conference Championship: 1.2% 

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Oregon State Beavers

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 4.7

National FPI Rank: 50

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 92.5%

Conference Championship: 1.4%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

UCLA Bruins

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 5.7

National FPI Rank: 45

Win Out: 0.0%

Reach Bowl Game: 93.6%

Conference Championship: 2.7%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Oregon Ducks

ESPN FPI: 8.6

National FPI Rank: 32

Win Out: 0.4%

Reach Bowl Game: 90.8%

Conference Championship: 8.3%

College Football Playoff: 0.0%

Make National Championship: 0.0%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Washington Huskies

Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 9.6

National FPI Rank: 25

Win Out: 0.5%

Reach Bowl Game: 99.0%

Conference Championship: 11.1%

College Football Playoff: 0.7%

Make National Championship: 0.1%

Win National Championship: 0.0%

Utah Utes

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 15.3

National FPI Rank: 10

Win Out: 5.3%

Reach Bowl Game: 99.6%

Conference Championship: 34.8%

College Football Playoff: 5.3%

Make National Championship: 1.4%

Win National Championship: 0.5%

USC Trojans

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN FPI: 15.5

National FPI Rank: 8

Win Out: 4.9%

Reach Bowl Game: 100%

Conference Championship: 40.0%

College Football Playoff: 19.7%

Make National Championship: 5.4%%

Win National Championship: 1.8%

Story originally appeared on Ducks Wire