Targets Aren't Created Equal: Adams is the WR1

Hayden Winks
·16 min read



Targets aren't created equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals.

TargetsArentCreatedEqual
TargetsArentCreatedEqual

Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player

Targets

Share

RZ

Middle %

Deep %

1. Davante Adams

13.0

40%

1.5

15%

11%

2. Emmanuel Sanders

11.5

32%

1.6

28%

3%

3. Jamison Crowder

11.0

33%

0.8

26%

9%

4. Terry McLaurin

11.0

33%

1.0

26%

14%

5. Stefon Diggs

10.5

29%

0.9

14%

10%

6. Corey Davis

10.0

30%

0.8

24%

3%

7. Allen Robinson

9.8

25%

0.9

34%

17%

8. Tyler Lockett

9.7

26%

1.3

22%

10%

9. Adam Thielen

9.3

29%

1.3

8%

24%

10. Amari Cooper

9.3

23%

1.1

21%

10%

11. Robby Anderson

9.3

30%

0.9

22%

17%

12. Travis Fulgham

9.3

26%

1.8

19%

11%

13. DeAndre Hopkins

9.0

27%

1.0

11%

12%

14. Keenan Allen

9.0

28%

1.0

17%

11%

15. Tyler Boyd

8.8

23%

1.3

44%

3%

16. D.J. Chark

8.5

23%

1.3

20%

22%

17. Brandin Cooks

8.3

23%

0.7

31%

14%

18. CeeDee Lamb

8.3

20%

0.7

33%

16%

19. A.J. Brown

8.0

24%

1.5

25%

6%

20. Chris Godwin

8.0

21%

1.3

28%

7%

21. Diontae Johnson

8.0

23%

1.0

22%

15%

22. Marquise Brown

8.0

29%

0.2

48%

38%

23. Sterling Shepard

8.0

29%

1.3

22%

6%

24. Will Fuller

8.0

23%

1.3

34%

17%

25. DeVante Parker

7.7

23%

0.2

20%

8%

26. Julio Jones

7.7

20%

1.2

18%

15%

27. JuJu Smith-Schuster

7.7

22%

1.0

24%

5%

28. A.J. Green

7.5

20%

0.4

22%

24%

29. Cooper Kupp

7.5

23%

0.7

37%

8%

30. DK Metcalf

7.3

20%

0.8

18%

34%

31. Cole Beasley

7.3

20%

1.0

33%

8%

32. Calvin Ridley

7.3

19%

1.7

16%

28%

33. Denzel Mims

7.0

21%

2.0

14%

0%

34. Justin Jefferson

7.0

22%

0.5

17%

19%

35. Kenny Golladay

7.0

23%

1.3

36%

21%

36. Odell Beckham

7.0

24%

1.0

30%

19%

37. Tee Higgins

7.0

19%

1.0

23%

23%

38. D.J. Moore

6.8

22%

0.4

28%

21%

39. Robert Woods

6.8

21%

0.7

13%

17%

40. T.Y. Hilton

6.7

20%

0.7

11%

11%

41. Darnell Mooney

6.5

16%

0.3

14%

27%

42. Darius Slayton

6.5

23%

1.1

25%

15%

43. Jarvis Landry

6.5

22%

0.3

28%

10%

44. Tim Patrick

6.3

21%

0.5

21%

36%

45. Jeff Smith

6.3

19%

0.5

12%

24%

46. Randall Cobb

6.3

18%

0.6

37%

5%

47. Tyreek Hill

6.3

21%

1.1

13%

25%

48. Bennie Fowler

6.0

17%

0.0

33%

0%

49. Isaiah Ford

6.0

18%

0.4

46%

0%

50. Jakobi Meyers

6.0

21%

0.0

29%

43%

51. Justin Watson

6.0

16%

0.0

55%

9%

52. Laviska Shenault

6.0

16%

0.4

26%

5%

53. Scotty Miller

6.0

16%

0.5

9%

38%

54. Christian Kirk

5.8

17%

1.0

3%

31%

55. Marquez Callaway

5.7

16%

1.0

35%

0%

56. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

5.7

17%

0.7

12%

35%

57. Zach Pascal

5.7

17%

1.3

32%

18%

58. Chris Hogan

5.5

16%

0.8

0%

12%

59. Deebo Samuel

5.5

17%

0.5

32%

5%

60. Keelan Cole

5.5

15%

0.4

30%

23%

61. Larry Fitzgerald

5.5

17%

0.3

35%

3%

62. Chase Claypool

5.3

15%

0.3

24%

28%

63. Damiere Byrd

5.3

19%

0.0

11%

18%

64. Brandon Aiyuk

5.3

16%

1.0

28%

16%

65. Greg Ward

5.3

15%

0.7

33%

3%

66. Josh Reynolds

5.3

16%

0.4

21%

24%

67. Mike Evans

5.3

14%

0.9

15%

13%

68. Breshad Perriman

5.0

15%

0.3

12%

18%

69. Curtis Samuel

5.0

16%

0.3

24%

7%

70. DeSean Jackson

5.0

14%

0.5

12%

28%

71. Hunter Renfrow

5.0

14%

0.7

24%

21%

72. Julian Edelman

5.0

18%

0.7

41%

13%

73. Mike Williams

5.0

15%

0.4

8%

42%

74. Nelson Agholor

5.0

14%

0.5

40%

20%

75. Olamide Zaccheaus

5.0

13%

0.2

32%

14%

76. Russell Gage

4.8

13%

1.1

26%

5%

77. Adam Humphries

4.5

14%

0.8

21%

3%

78. John Brown

4.5

13%

0.8

19%

22%

79. Sammy Watkins

4.5

15%

1.2

34%

3%

80. Cedrick Wilson

4.3

11%

1.0

20%

20%

81. Jerry Jeudy

4.3

14%

0.5

32%

16%

82. Marvin Jones

4.3

14%

0.8

30%

17%

83. Anthony Miller

4.3

11%

0.7

29%

16%

84. Michael Gallup

4.3

10%

0.4

8%

22%

85. James Washington

4.0

11%

0.5

26%

15%

86. Marcus Johnson

4.0

12%

0.3

17%

42%

Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Player

Targets

Share

RZ

Middle %

Deep %

1. George Kittle

10.0

30%

0.6

40%

4%

2. Darren Waller

9.3

26%

1.7

29%

2%

3. Austin Hooper

7.7

26%

0.3

18%

9%

4. Travis Kelce

7.3

24%

1.6

29%

7%

5. Zach Ertz

7.0

20%

0.8

42%

4%

6. Albert Okwuegbunam

6.5

22%

1.5

15%

15%

7. Noah Fant

6.5

22%

1.0

32%

9%

8. Tyler Eifert

6.5

18%

1.2

35%

13%

9. Rob Gronkowski

6.3

16%

1.1

25%

22%

10. Eric Ebron

6.0

17%

1.2

44%

6%

11. Evan Engram

6.0

21%

0.7

23%

2%

12. Hunter Henry

6.0

18%

0.7

17%

7%

13. Jimmy Graham

6.0

15%

1.6

14%

5%

14. O.J. Howard

6.0

16%

0.8

16%

21%

15. Hayden Hurst

5.8

15%

0.4

18%

8%

16. Anthony Firkser

5.3

16%

0.6

36%

5%

17. Mark Andrews

5.3

19%

1.3

48%

9%

18. Trey Burton

5.3

16%

0.7

13%

0%

19. Dalton Schultz

5.0

12%

0.7

33%

10%

20. T.J. Hockenson

5.0

16%

1.7

23%

3%

21. Jonnu Smith

4.3

13%

1.2

27%

3%

22. Logan Thomas

4.0

12%

1.0

38%

10%

23. Richard Rodgers

4.0

11%

0.2

17%

11%

24. Robert Tonyan

4.0

12%

0.8

20%

15%

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Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

Team Player

Targets

Share

RZ

Middle %

Deep %

ARI Chase Edmonds

5.3

16%

0.9

25%

3%

ARI Christian Kirk

5.8

17%

1.0

3%

31%

ARI DeAndre Hopkins

9.0

27%

1.0

11%

12%

ARI Larry Fitzgerald

5.5

17%

0.3

35%

3%

ATL Calvin Ridley

7.3

19%

1.7

16%

28%

ATL Hayden Hurst

5.8

15%

0.4

18%

8%

ATL Julio Jones

7.7

20%

1.2

18%

15%

ATL Olamide Zaccheaus

5.0

13%

0.2

32%

14%

ATL Russell Gage

4.8

13%

1.1

26%

5%

BAL Mark Andrews

5.3

19%

1.3

48%

9%

BAL Marquise Brown

8.0

29%

0.2

48%

38%

BUF Cole Beasley

7.3

20%

1.0

33%

8%

BUF John Brown

4.5

13%

0.8

19%

22%

BUF Stefon Diggs

10.5

29%

0.9

14%

10%

CAR Curtis Samuel

5.0

16%

0.3

24%

7%

CAR D.J. Moore

6.8

22%

0.4

28%

21%

CAR Mike Davis

6.0

19%

1.5

12%

0%

CAR Robby Anderson

9.3

30%

0.9

22%

17%

CHI Allen Robinson

9.8

25%

0.9

34%

17%

CHI Anthony Miller

4.3

11%

0.7

29%

16%

CHI Darnell Mooney

6.5

16%

0.3

14%

27%

CHI David Montgomery

6.0

15%

0.7

18%

3%

CHI Jimmy Graham

6.0

15%

1.6

14%

5%

CIN A.J. Green

7.5

20%

0.4

22%

24%

CIN Joe Mixon

5.7

15%

0.5

15%

0%

CIN Tee Higgins

7.0

19%

1.0

23%

23%

CIN Tyler Boyd

8.8

23%

1.3

44%

3%

CLE Austin Hooper

7.7

26%

0.3

18%

9%

CLE Jarvis Landry

6.5

22%

0.3

28%

10%

CLE Odell Beckham

7.0

24%

1.0

30%

19%

DAL Amari Cooper

9.3

23%

1.1

21%

10%

DAL Cedrick Wilson

4.3

11%

1.0

20%

20%

DAL CeeDee Lamb

8.3

20%

0.7

33%

16%

DAL Dalton Schultz

5.0

12%

0.7

33%

10%

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

5.8

14%

0.6

20%

0%

DAL Michael Gallup

4.3

10%

0.4

8%

22%

DEN Albert Okwuegbunam

6.5

22%

1.5

15%

15%

DEN Jerry Jeudy

4.3

14%

0.5

32%

16%

DEN Noah Fant

6.5

22%

1.0

32%

9%

DEN Tim Patrick

6.3

21%

0.5

21%

36%

DET D'Andre Swift

4.3

14%

0.7

24%

0%

DET Kenny Golladay

7.0

23%

1.3

36%

21%

DET Marvin Jones

4.3

14%

0.8

30%

17%

DET T.J. Hockenson

5.0

16%

1.7

23%

3%

GB Aaron Jones

5.0

15%

1.8

4%

14%

GB Davante Adams

13.0

40%

1.5

15%

11%

GB Jamaal Williams

4.7

14%

0.2

26%

5%

GB Marquez Valdes-Scantling

5.7

17%

0.7

12%

35%

GB Robert Tonyan

4.0

12%

0.8

20%

15%

HOU Brandin Cooks

8.3

23%

0.7

31%

14%

HOU Randall Cobb

6.3

18%

0.6

37%

5%

HOU Will Fuller

8.0

23%

1.3

34%

17%

IND Marcus Johnson

4.0

12%

0.3

17%

42%

IND Nyheim Hines

4.3

13%

0.8

19%

0%

IND T.Y. Hilton

6.7

20%

0.7

11%

11%

IND Trey Burton

5.3

16%

0.7

13%

0%

IND Zach Pascal

5.7

17%

1.3

32%

18%

JAX D.J. Chark

8.5

23%

1.3

20%

22%

JAX James Robinson

5.3

14%

0.6

22%

0%

JAX Keelan Cole

5.5

15%

0.4

30%

23%

JAX Laviska Shenault

6.0

16%

0.4

26%

5%

JAX Tyler Eifert

6.5

18%

1.2

35%

13%

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

4.8

16%

0.6

14%

0%

KC Sammy Watkins

4.5

15%

1.2

34%

3%

KC Travis Kelce

7.3

24%

1.6

29%

7%

KC Tyreek Hill

6.3

21%

1.1

13%

25%

LA Cooper Kupp

7.5

23%

0.7

37%

8%

LA Josh Reynolds

5.3

16%

0.4

21%

24%

LA Robert Woods

6.8

21%

0.7

13%

17%

LAC Hunter Henry

6.0

18%

0.7

17%

7%

LAC Justin Jackson

4.7

14%

0.3

14%

0%

LAC Keenan Allen

9.0

28%

1.0

17%

11%

LAC Mike Williams

5.0

15%

0.4

8%

42%

LV Darren Waller

9.3

26%

1.7

29%

2%

LV Hunter Renfrow

5.0

14%

0.7

24%

21%

LV Jalen Richard

4.5

12%

1.0

38%

0%

LV Nelson Agholor

5.0

14%

0.5

40%

20%

MIA DeVante Parker

7.7

23%

0.2

20%

8%

MIA Isaiah Ford

6.0

18%

0.4

46%

0%

MIA Myles Gaskin

4.3

13%

0.8

24%

0%

MIN Adam Thielen

9.3

29%

1.3

8%

24%

MIN Justin Jefferson

7.0

22%

0.5

17%

19%

NE Damiere Byrd

5.3

19%

0.0

11%

18%

NE Jakobi Meyers

6.0

21%

0.0

29%

43%

NE James White

6.0

21%

0.3

10%

0%

NE Julian Edelman

5.0

18%

0.7

41%

13%

NO Alvin Kamara

7.3

20%

1.3

19%

6%

NO Bennie Fowler

6.0

17%

0.0

33%

0%

NO Emmanuel Sanders

11.5

32%

1.6

28%

3%

NO Marquez Callaway

5.7

16%

1.0

35%

0%

NYG Darius Slayton

6.5

23%

1.1

25%

15%

NYG Evan Engram

6.0

21%

0.7

23%

2%

NYG Sterling Shepard

8.0

29%

1.3

22%

6%

NYJ Breshad Perriman

5.0

15%

0.3

12%

18%

NYJ Chris Hogan

5.5

16%

0.8

0%

12%

NYJ Denzel Mims

7.0

21%

2.0

14%

0%

NYJ Jamison Crowder

11.0

33%

0.8

26%

9%

NYJ Jeff Smith

6.3

19%

0.5

12%

24%

PHI Boston Scott

4.5

13%

0.8

0%

0%

PHI DeSean Jackson

5.0

14%

0.5

12%

28%

PHI Greg Ward

5.3

15%

0.7

33%

3%

PHI Richard Rodgers

4.0

11%

0.2

17%

11%

PHI Travis Fulgham

9.3

26%

1.8

19%

11%

PHI Zach Ertz

7.0

20%

0.8

42%

4%

PIT Chase Claypool

5.3

15%

0.3

24%

28%

PIT Diontae Johnson

8.0

23%

1.0

22%

15%

PIT Eric Ebron

6.0

17%

1.2

44%

6%

PIT James Washington

4.0

11%

0.5

26%

15%

PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster

7.7

22%

1.0

24%

5%

SEA Carlos Hyde

4.0

11%

0.0

0%

0%

SEA Chris Carson

4.3

12%

1.0

12%

0%

SEA DK Metcalf

7.3

20%

0.8

18%

34%

SEA Tyler Lockett

9.7

26%

1.3

22%

10%

SF Brandon Aiyuk

5.3

16%

1.0

28%

16%

SF Deebo Samuel

5.5

17%

0.5

32%

5%

SF George Kittle

10.0

30%

0.6

40%

4%

SF Jerick McKinnon

5.0

15%

0.5

8%

12%

TB Chris Godwin

8.0

21%

1.3

28%

7%

TB Justin Watson

6.0

16%

0.0

55%

9%

TB Leonard Fournette

7.0

18%

0.8

33%

0%

TB Mike Evans

5.3

14%

0.9

15%

13%

TB O.J. Howard

6.0

16%

0.8

16%

21%

TB Rob Gronkowski

6.3

16%

1.1

25%

22%

TB Ronald Jones

4.5

12%

0.6

15%

0%

TB Scotty Miller

6.0

16%

0.5

9%

38%

TEN A.J. Brown

8.0

24%

1.5

25%

6%

TEN Adam Humphries

4.5

14%

0.8

21%

3%

TEN Anthony Firkser

5.3

16%

0.6

36%

5%

TEN Corey Davis

10.0

30%

0.8

24%

3%

TEN Jonnu Smith

4.3

13%

1.2

27%

3%

WAS Antonio Gibson

4.0

12%

0.1

17%

0%

WAS J.D. McKissic

6.0

18%

0.3

18%

0%

WAS Logan Thomas

4.0

12%

1.0

38%

10%

WAS Terry McLaurin

11.0

33%

1.0

26%

14%

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 8

Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks