Tag or no tag, 2024 will be a win for Josh Jacobs

Raiders running back Josh Jacobs did not secure a promise that the team won't tag him again in 2024. He got the next best thing.

With a base package of $11.8 million under his upgraded one-year deal, he'll get at least $14.16 million under a second tag from the Raiders.

If the Raiders exercise it, that's great money given the current running back market. If they don't, Jacobs becomes a free agent.

It's too early to know whether the Raiders will tag him again. He'll need to have another solid season, obviously. And the same internal forces that recently kept his two-year guarantee on a multi-year deal below $20 million might argue loudly that the team should not pay him $14.16 million in 2024.

Either way, he wins. He gets $14.16 million or he hits the open market, possibly getting more than $14.16 million in guarantees on a long-term deal from another team.

Of course, if he has a bad year, he won't get either. But there's a sweet spot in which Jacobs doesn't do enough to get the Raiders to tag him again — but he does more than enough to get a long-term deal that pays out more than $14.16 million in full guarantees at signing.