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The No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking and reigning Masters champion, Dustin Johnson, returns to the PGA Tour following a victory at the European Tour’s Saudi International last week. He is among a solid field of 156 golfers teeing it up at Pebble Beach Golf Links for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Below, we look at the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
This year’s event will look considerably different due to COVID-19 protocols. There will be no celebrity pro-am portion of the tournament and golf will be played on just two courses – Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course – instead of three. The cut will be made after the standard 36 holes instead of 54.
Johnson, who’s playing his first PGA Tour event on the mainland since his Masters victory, is a prohibitive betting favorite at BetMGM following his Saudi International win. He’s +350 as the only member of the top five in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings in attendance.
While acknowledging Johnson’s high chance of winning this event for the third time, we’ll look for some better value.
2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks – Favorite
Jason Day (+3000)
Day has never won this event, but he was a co-runner-up in 2018 as one of six top-10 finishes in his last eight appearances. He missed the cut each of the last two weeks, but those performances have now helped to boost his odds at a course where he has had great success.
Day gained strokes off-the-tee, from tee-to-green and around-the-green last week, but he lost 2.62 strokes per round with the putter over his 36 holes. Trust in his driver and irons while expecting his putter to get right at a familiar venue.
2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks – Contender
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+9000)
Lee was the co-runner-up to Brooks Koepka last week in Phoenix. He vaulted from No. 263 to No. 142 in the OWGR with his best finish on the PGA Tour. He’s a two-time winner on the Japan Tour and previously had a top PGA Tour finish of T-5 at the 2019 RSM Classic.
Lee led the field last week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Around-the-Green. His odds are far too high coming off of that well-rounded performance.
2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks – Long shot
Brian Gay (+25000)
Gay missed the cut in each of his last two events following a 72nd-place finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T-29 at the Sentry of Tournament of Champions, but he’s just four events removed from his victory at the Bermuda Championship, albeit in a much weaker field.
He tied for 38th last year, seventh in 2019 and eighth in 2018. He was solid from tee-to-green and on approach all three of those years and didn’t rely too heavily on his putter. Port Royal Golf Course, the home of the Bermuda Championship, was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr., who also designed Spyglass.
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