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The PGA Tour shifts to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson as the final tune-up ahead of next week’s PGA Championship. Below, we look at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Five of the top-nine golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in attendance. The strong field is headlined by world No. 1 Jon Rahm and reigning FedExCup champ Dustin Johnson. Sung Kang is defending his 2019 Byron Nelson championship but this is the first year the tournament is being played at TPC Craig Ranch.
The venue measures 7,468 yards and plays to a par of 72. It has hosted Korn Ferry Tour events but will welcome the PGA Tour for the first time this week.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Favorite
Will Zalatoris (+3000)
At No. 7 in the Golfweek rankings, Zalatoris is the third-best golfer in this field, but he has just the 10th-best odds to win. His missed cut at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship was his first in 14 PGA Tour events since the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.
It was poor putting which did in Zalatoris last week at Quail Hollow Club. He still gained strokes from tee-to-green and around-the-green over his two rounds, and he has been an above-average putter for the 2020-21 season.
As in every tournament immediately preceding a major, the motivation of the top players in the field is questionable this week. Zalatoris still needs a win in order to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs, despite his world ranking and three top-10 finishes this year.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Contender
Keith Mitchell (+8000)
The value’s still right for Mitchell coming off his T-3 finish at Quail Hollow last week. He held the 54-hole lead and was in the final pairing with Rory McIlroy. He fell two strokes shy of victory with a Sunday round of plus-1, 72.
Mitchell was second in the field with 1.85 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and sixth with 2.32 SG: Tee-to-Green per round last week. TPC Craig Ranch is of similar length, and those two parts of his game will transfer well.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Long shot
Sung Kang (+50000)
Kang’s 2019 Byron Nelson win should be ignored as it was at a different venue and against a considerably weaker field. He’s still well worth a long-shot bet, as he is a member of TPC Craig Ranch and will have an edge over most of the field in the venue’s PGA Tour debut.
Kang missed the cut in eight of his 12 events to begin 2021, but he tied for second in last year’s Genesis Invitational and finished T-9 at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Both results were in strong fields and at long courses.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Kang to win would return a profit of $5,000. The same wager on Zalatoris would net a return of $300.
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