AT&T Byron Nelson: An Early Final Round Looms

·3 min read

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Things have tightened heading into the final round of the AT&T Byron Nelson. With inclement weather in the forecast for tomorrow, tee-times have been pushed up and threesomes, instead of the traditional twosomes, will be played. It’ll be interesting to see how that affects the leader, Sam Burns, as he goes for his second win in as many starts.

Coming off his maiden victory at the Valspar Championship, Burns blitzed the field over the first two days of the Byron Nelson. Things settled down on Saturday as Burns watched his lead shrink. A round of 3-under 69 left a lot to be desired, but it was still enough to maintain a one-stroke lead going into Sunday.

According to the oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook, there are five suitors who have real potential to chase down Burns. Jordan Spieth will likely garner the most attention from the general public as he is the biggest name of the bunch. The Dallas-native sits three-strokes back thanks to yet another eagle on the par-5 18th hole.

Updated Odds (via PointsBet):

+140: Sam Burns

+450: Jordan Spieth

+500: K.H. Lee

+1100: Charl Schwartzel, Matt Kuchar

+1600: Alexander Noren

+4000: Doc Redman, Harris English

+6000: Seamus Power

+7000: Rafa Cabrera Bello, Scott Stallings

Round 4 Plays:

Charl Schwartzel (+1100 to win):

No player struck the ball better than the South African on Saturday. Schwartzel led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on his way to a round of 6-under 66. There were plenty of near misses as Schwartzel was unable to convert a number of birdie and par putts. For the day, he lost nearly a stroke on the greens, and I’d expect that to change on Sunday.

He gained strokes on the green in both of the first two rounds, so I don’t think it’ll be too much to ask for a positive day of putting in the final round. He’s striking the ball beautifully and has seemingly been on the cusp of victory for the last month. I’m sure he still has a sour taste in his mouth from the Zurich Classic playoff loss, which only helps our cause.

Matt Kuchar (+1100 to win):

Kuchar was the best iron player in Round 3, gaining more than 2.5 strokes on approach. The nine-time PGA Tour winner will be looking for his first victory since the 2019 Sony Open. He sits only three-strokes back, just like Schwartzel, and will also need to improve on the greens in order to pose as a serious threat.

He too was positive on the greens in both Round 1 and Round 2. He lost just slightly on Saturday as Kuchar missed a number of short putts coming down the stretch, one of which included a birdie look on the par-5 18th. Despite the unorthodox putting style, Kuchar has shown to be effective with the flat stick in the past and will likely bounce back on the greens tomorrow.

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