Sunday Prop Shop Week 8: Fade Justin Fields

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Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.

Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.

Darrell Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (+135)

Henderson has topped this prop in half of his games this year despite exiting with an injury on two separate occasions. Over the past two weeks, he has appeared fully healthy, logging snap shares over 80 percent in consecutive contests. Averaging 3.7 targets for exactly 2.5 catches per game, this propr should have something close to even juice on both sides.

Justin Fields Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Fields has five games as a starter under his belt and has been held under this prop in three of those contests. Since entering the starting lineup, Matt Nagy has dialed up three designed runs for him. That’s as many as he gave Fields’ in his first two weeks...when Andy Dalton was the starter. Fields is being used as a pocket passer and we need to be betting his lines as such.

Jared Goff Under 265.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Goff has only topped this prop in three of seven games this year and his team somehow trending in the wrong direction in terms of their passing rate. The Lions’ pass rate has dropped by two percent in the past three weeks despite their average point differential also dropping by two. Goff is averaging 253 yards at 6.5 yards per pass attempt and his team is expected to be in a close game for a change. All of that should culminate in an underwhelming outing from the veteran.

Deebo Samuel Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Samuel has only fallen short of this line in two games this year and his floor has been 52 receiving yards. Samuel is fourth in receiving yards and the only players ahead of him have yet to get their bye week, unlike Samuel. He leads the league with a 34 percent target share.

Donald Parham Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Parham has seen his role increase this year but that has primarily come from his role as a blocker. He’s hovering around 50 percent of the Charger’s snaps each week and is maxing out at two catches. Pro Football Focus has him blocking on 57 percent of his snaps. His .93 yards per route run would be 36th out of 30 tight ends with 15 or more targets but he has only seen nine looks this year. Parham is simply an ancillary piece of the offense who is liable to catch zero passes in a week.

Last Week: (2-3), -.8 units

Season: 13-22, -11 units