Stay or Go: Should Knicks bring back Obi Toppin?
Obi Toppin’s Knicks tenure has been a constant tug-of-war between his potential and the constraints of the surrounding roster on that potential. Ever since he’s dawned the blue and orange, an especially durable All-NBA talent sat ahead of him on the depth chart, giving Toppin few sustained opportunities.
That’s why Immanuel Quickley, the 25th pick of Toppin’s draft, is likely to re-up with New York at over $20 million a year after a stellar third season, and Toppin’s Knicks future is in question. He’s extension-eligible, but due no more than the 15 bench minutes a night he’s averaged in three seasons, making it questionable whether it’s worth the cost.
When Toppin was first drafted, Julius Randle was the returning starting power forward coming off a rough 2019-20 campaign. This opened the door for Toppin potentially becoming his replacement, until the new season began.
Randle made a major leap, making an All-NBA team and winning Most Improved Player, while Toppin backed him up in an underwhelming rookie year. Despite many expecting him to be one of the more NBA-ready prospects, Toppin looked lost defensively and apprehensive offensively, playing only 11 minutes a night.
Season Two was when Toppin began to shine. He looked much more comfortable as part of a killer bench unit that carried the team for much of the year.
Toppin averaged nine points and 3.7 rebounds in 17 minutes a game, shooting 65.5 percent on twos. He earned much more trust as Randle suffered through a regression year, thus granting him more opportunities and more confidence.
With Randle dealing with injuries down the stretch of a lost year, Toppin got to start eight of the team’s last 11 games, putting up 19.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists on 58.4 percent shooting from the field and 44.1 percent from deep. It was April in the NBA, but it was enough to convince many that Toppin was still the man to replace Randle.
This year, Randle bounced back big time with a similar year to 2021, once again holding Toppin to reserve minutes. The young forward showed much improvement, bumping his three-point volume and accuracy up to career-highs, while showing more of an off-the-dribble game.
There was something off about this third Toppin season, though.
Nearly 60 percent of his shot attempts came from behind the arc, despite being arguably the most athletic member of the team. And even with his improved offense, he’d go entire games without a set being run for him or the chance to create, instead taking a couple spot-up threes and unceremoniously returning to the pine.
Toppin went 19 consecutive games without recording double-digit points for one stretch in which he missed time in the middle with an injury. He only really got it going once again in April, when Randle turned his ankle and missed time.
The playoffs were much of the same story, as Toppin was largely forgettable with Randle healthy, but when needed he stepped up in his absence.
When Randle re-injured his ankle, Toppin closed the second half of an elimination Game 5 against Cleveland, scoring all 12 of his points in the third quarter. He then started Game 1 against Miami, putting up 18 points and 8 rebounds in a solid performance. When Randle returned, he resigned to the bench and only played over 12 minutes once.
Ultimately, the Knicks need to decide what the story of Toppin’s Knicks career has been. Was he a victim of too little opportunity or of his own ceiling and limitations?
Fans have called for a variety of ways to get Toppin more minutes within this roster construction. One is playing him and Randle in the front-court together, an experiment Tom Thibodeau dabbled in but deemed situational at best.
He’s probably right, given the two work together best against smaller lineups and when they’re adequately defending the rim without a traditional protector, a tough ask. Toppin’s three ball and ball-handling suggest he could be an interesting big wing at the three, but at what point do you stop throwing things at the wall and just move on?
Whatever Toppin truly is, we won’t find that out so long as he and Randle are Knicks at the same time. Barring a trade for the latter, this summer presents a good opportunity for another team to bet on Toppin.
If the Knicks want to extend him, the market price projected by Sportrac’s Keith Smith was set at $17.5 million a year. That’s a large number to dedicate to a prospect not given room to develop and perform.
New York can probably get a first-round pick or capable veteran in return for Toppin, which would set them up to move on without him. They’d be losing a fan favorite, but gaining a resolution to this tug-of-war that’s brewed for years, freeing Toppin of his bench role.
