State House Dome: Sherman poll gives him a shot vs. Sununu if he frames abortion ban

Jul. 10—THERE CAN BE no doubt that Gov. Chris Sununu is a solid favorite to win a fourth term this fall.

A poll recently done for Democratic nominee Tom Sherman, however, concludes that the challenger is "within striking distance" of the Republican Sununu if voters are "informed" of the state of abortion rights in New Hampshire.

Public Policy Polling, an outfit that works for Democratic candidates and liberal causes, did the survey of 601 registered voters on July 5-6.

The Sunday News received a memo on the poll by the Global Strategy Group, Sherman's media consultant.

Head to head, the poll found Sununu led Sherman, 43% to 33%, with 8% for Libertarian nominee Karlyn Borysenko and 16% undecided.

These results are much better for Sherman than those reported in independent polls.

According to Real Clear Politics, the average of those polls had Sununu with a 2-to-1 advantage — 53% compared to 26.5% for Sherman.

Sherman's poll concluded the race was a dead heat after likely voters learned about the abortion ban Sununu signed into law in June 2021.

With that "information," Sherman pulls up to 39%, compared to 40% for Sununu and 6% for the Libertarian candidate.

The short statement read to respondents by pollsters clearly is aimed at moving voters, especially women, away from the incumbent.

It reads, "As governor, Chris Sununu signed the first abortion ban in modern New Hampshire history. Sununu ignored 200 of the state's leading medical experts and signed a restrictive abortion ban that contained no exceptions for rape, incest or fatal fetal diagnosis, required medically unnecessary and invasive pre-abortion ultrasounds and criminalized doctors with felony penalties for providing abortions."

The statement gives the impression the abortion ban applies to all pregnancies, rather than to just abortions during the last trimester.

The super-majority of states in the country have the same late-term abortion restriction, and polls have shown up to 70% of New Hampshire voters support that position.

The poll did not inform voters the ban now exempts fatal fetal anomalies. The GOP-led Legislature also agreed to require ultrasounds only when a doctor has reason to believe the fetus may be at least 24 weeks old.

Sununu campaign manager Paul Collins said the survey was revealing.

"Tom Sherman's struggling gubernatorial campaign engages a liberal polling group to do a survey with very slanted questions and still manages to lose to Chris Sununu. Clearly what's up in the air this election isn't whether Tom Sherman loses — it's by how much," Collins said.

Candidates with cash

The fundraising numbers coming in for the second quarter reveal the two newest Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, Bruce Fenton of Durham and Vikram Mansharamani of Lincoln, are pretty flush.

As expected, the first stake for Fenton's campaign, $1.6 million, came out of his own pocket.

In a social media video last week, the bitcoin millionaire said he had changed his mind and decided to seek individual donations to his campaign.

"Politics is a team sport," Fenton said.

Mansharamani said he raised $830,000, which included a little more than $250,000 of his own money.

A political novice and entrepreneur, Mansharamani noted the $568,000 he raised from individuals was competitive with first-quarter fundraising from Senate President Chuck Morse ($750,000) and former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith ($410,000).

"Given the amount of support I have received, I am confident that we will win this election," Mansharamani said.

"And since I am asking people to bet on me, I am going to bet on myself; that is why I have decided to make a personal contribution."

Ballot tech on display

The Special Committee on Voter Confidence will see and discuss a demonstration of the latest in ballot-counting machine technology at its next meeting on Tuesday.

Co-chairman Brad Cook will discuss the rules the Ballot Law Commission has agreed to as it considers approving the use of newer machines for future elections.

To date, only the AccuVote machine has been allowed in New Hampshire.

The AccuVote technology dates to the late 1980s. Because it's become difficult to get replacement parts, many city and town clerks have been lobbying to permit communities to use newer ones.

Vendors of new ballot-counting machines will show off their wares at the meeting, which begins at 1 p.m. at the State Archives Building in Concord.

A Giuliani-Smith alliance

American Bridge 21st Century, the largest opposition research group in Democratic politics, noted that Smith, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, had a long relationship with ex-Trump lawyer and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Smith volunteered and raised money for Giuliani's presidential campaign in 2007 and 2008.

When Smith ran for governor in 2012, Giuliani endorsed him and Smith hired former Giuliani campaign staffers for his team.

"'I have a sense of loyalty to Kevin because he supported me," Giuliani said at the time.

Former GOP State Chairman Wayne Semprini, one of Giuliani's most prominent backers, also endorsed Smith in that race for governor.

American Bridge officials acknowledge there's been no public association between the pair for some time. but a group spokesperson said that "In light of the recent January 6th hearings, Kevin Smith's silence on Rudy Giuliani is deafening."

Said American Bridge's Grace Hagerty: "Smith spent the better part of a decade touting his close relationship with national pariah Rudy Giuliani. With Giuliani continuing to make national news for his criminal behavior, Granite Staters deserve to know where their friendship stands."

Hagerty worked as press secretary for the New Hampshire Democratic Party before joining American Bridge.

Seb Rougemont, Smith's campaign manager, belittled the inquiry.

"What a stupid question from (George) Soros-funded socialists. Kevin and Rudy haven't spoken in years," Rougemont said.

Atwitter over pol's tweets

House Majority Leader Jason Osborne, R-Auburn, has become a lightning rod on the right with his social media presence.

For some time in 2021-22, Osborne's Twitter profile was private.

Near the close of the latest legislative session, Osborne went public in a big way, launching several attacks against Democratic positions.

On July 3, Osborne posted, "Instead of spending $20 more next year on your Independence Day hot dogs, lay off the calories and buy a few rounds for your AK-47. You'll thank yourself later."

A day later seven people were killed in a mass shooting at the Independence Day parade in Highland Park, Ill.

Osborne's tweet went viral.

House Democratic Leader David Cote of Nashua was one of many gun control advocates to condemn Osborne's choice of words.

"Rep. Osborne's flippant remark about stockpiling ammo for semiautomatic weapons was particularly egregious given the barrage of firearm killings our country has endured in recent weeks," Cote said.

By the middle of last week, Osborne's Twitter account reverted to private status, which means Osborne must give permission before anyone can view his tweets.

"I mistakenly believed Twitter had become more friendly to basic First Amendment rights," Osborne said.

"Unfortunately, there are difficult conversations that need to be had, but rather than have those conversations, Democrat gun-grabbing extremists and their big tech allies conspire to limit free speech."

During a podcast on NHJournal late last week, Osborne said that within two weeks of his return to Twitter, the platform suspended him because of complaints.

Osborne said he got back on the platform but decided to go dark again because the partisan attacks became tiresome.

As for the gun tweet, Osborne said he "doesn't regret anything" and maintained Democrats risk losing votes by keeping up their assault.

"I have no trouble double and tripling down on the Second Amendment all day long. That is going to do nothing but good for Republicans," Osborne said.

Election audits on the way

Two bills recently signed into law by Sununu give Secretary of State David Scanlan marching orders to audit future elections.

Scanlan has commended the Legislature for taking these steps to instill more faith in the accuracy of election results.

The first (HB 1467) clearly was in response to the Windham recount controversy, which involved a major discrepancy between the votes for state representative in that town. An investigation concluded that ballots that went through a specific folding machine were inaccurately read.

Rep. Michael Yakubovich, R-Hooksett, authored this bill, which requires the state to audit up to 10 state rep races close enough to require recounts..

In those elections, the audit must include votes cast in a race for a major office — president, governor, U.S. senator or U.S. representative.

Supporters maintain this change would have confirmed early on that Windham's election night results were wrong.

The second election audit bill (SB 366) was the cooperative, bipartisan effort of the Senate's two leading authorities on the issue, Senate Election Laws and Municipal Affairs Chairman James Gray, R-Rochester, and Senate Democratic Leader Donna Soucy of Manchester.

Under the bill's provisions, Scanlan's office must acquire a high-speed ballot-counting scanner to conduct primary and general election audits of AccuVote returns in the 2022 election.

The bill calls for an audit of primary ballots cast in two towns or city wards and at least four towns or city wards in the general election.

Results of the audit must be complete and public by Friday at noon after the general election.

First secret ballots saved

State Archivist Brian Burford announced last week that his staff has completed the preservation of sample "Australian" ballots from the 1900 presidential election.

Former Secretary of State Bill Gardner pioneered this project in 2020.

Before the adoption of these anonymous ballots, bystanders at the polls could tell how citizens were voting because their ballots came from the political party of their choice.

The 1900 sample ballots underwent professional cleaning to remove debris and repair any tears.

A special solution neutralized the acid on the paper to prevent further deterioration, Burford said.

"It's heartbreaking when old records start to flake and fall away. The Archives Division strives to slow this trend and share our ancestors' stories with the New Hampshire public through successful conservation projects like these," Burford said.

Incumbents lead money race

Both U.S. Reps. Annie Kuster and Chris Pappas, D-N.H., raised more money than their GOP rivals from April through June.

Each raised roughly the same amount, about $610,000.

Kuster had $2.8 million in the bank, and Pappas had $2.2 million.

George Hansel, Keene's mayor and a GOP hopeful for Kuster's seat, said he collected more than $310,000 in his first quarter of fundraising.

Kevin Landrigan is State House Bureau Chief for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. Reach him at klandrigan@unionleader.com.