Late start to minor league season may not deter top prospects from reaching the majors

It might be tough to remember what a “typical” season is like, but the middle of May is usually the time when minor league prospects start making their way to the majors.

Remember two years ago when Austin Riley, Cavan Biggio, Keston Hiura, Yordan Alvarez and others suddenly burst onto the scene? Teams were able to fill holes on their rosters with players who ended up contributing for the rest of the season.

We missed out on that last year because no one was playing baseball in May, but the reason some fantasy managers might be caught off guard this time around is because the minor league season only began last week. In a typical year, we’d have a month’s worth of stats to review and it might be a little easier to tell which prospects were on the verge of a promotion.

While alternate camps were up and running at the end of spring training, MLB teams prefer to have their minor leaguers play in some actual games before calling them up.

However, injuries have already hastened the process in Minnesota for outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach.

Kirilloff started off hitless in his first 15 major league at-bats before going on a seven-game hitting streak that included four homers and 11 RBI. However, a sprained right wrist sent him to the injured list. That, along with injuries to Byron Buxton and Luis Arraez, paved the way for Larnach’s debut last weekend.

The first-round pick in 2018 out of Oregon State hits left-handed and has a history of excellent plate discipline in the minors.

He should see regular playing time, even when Kirilloff returns, with Buxton out for several weeks.

The Toronto Blue Jays also promoted one of their top prospects this week in hard-throwing right-hander Nate Pearson. A groin injury kept Pearson from making the Jays roster out of spring training, but he got the call after an abbreviated opening day start for Class AAA Buffalo (New York).

Pearson had a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings with the Jays in 2020, and he allowed three earned runs in 2 1/3 innings May 9. However, he walked five and didn’t strike anyone out.

A pair of call-ups doesn’t necessarily constitute a wave just yet, and a few good games in the minor leagues is no guarantee of future success. But more top prospects will be getting promotions fairly soon, and fantasy managers should be prepared.

Ready and waiting

OF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners: The Mariners have the lowest team batting average and third-worst OPS in the majors, yet they began the week a game above .500 and just 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL West.

Kelenic, who hit a pair of home runs in his debut with Class AAA Tacoma (Washington), would provide a much-needed boost on offense. He crushed the ball this spring and he has fully recovered from a minor knee injury. He really has nothing left to prove in the minors. (UPDATE: The Mariners are expected to make it official on Thursday that Kelenic will be joining them for the start of a series at home vs. Cleveland)

SS Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays: The game’s consensus No. 1 prospect had five hits, three for extra bases, in his first nine at-bats for Class AAA Durham (North Carolina).

The Rays’ Willy Adames is a capable MLB shortstop, but Franco could be something special.

SP Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays: While Kelenic and Franco are probably already rostered, even in mixed fantasy leagues, Manoah could be the first impact prospect to arrive on the open market. He had a monster spring, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 15, but the Jays chose to have him start the season at Buffalo.

He was just as dominant in his first Triple-A start, allowing two hits in six scoreless frames and striking out 12. Manoah, 23, may not last much longer in the minors, especially if Pearson struggles again in his next outing for the Jays.

SP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners: Gilbert prevailed in a battle of top pitching prospects when he outdueled MacKenzie Gore in their minor league openers. The 24-year-old right-hander gave up one run over five innings as Tacoma topped El Paso (Texas). Meanwhile, the Mariners are trying to work around having four starting pitchers on the injured list.

Not far away

SP Josiah Gray, Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers’ vaunted pitching depth is noticeably thinner than it looked this spring. With Dustin May out for the season and David Price and Tony Gonsolin on the injured list, Gray would be a logical replacement if a need for a spot starter should arise. For now, they’re planning to employ a four-man rotation until Gonsolin returns.

Gray, 23, was extremely impressive in his opening-day start at Class AAA Oklahoma City, notching a career-high 10 strikeouts while giving up two runs and three hits in five innings.

2B-OF Vidal Brujan, Tampa Bay Rays: Brujan can be overshadowed in the Rays organization playing alongside Franco. However, he had four home runs and nine RBI in his first six games for Triple-A Durham. His greatest asset is his speed – with 55 and 48 stolen bases in his previous two minor league seasons.

SP Jackson Kowar, Kansas City Royals: The Royals went heavy on pitching in the 2018 draft and landed four quality starters. Three of them – Brady Singer, Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch – are already in the majors. The fourth, Kowar, isn’t too far behind.

The 24-year-old right-hander is already 2-0 at Class AAA Omaha (Nebraska), allowing just one run and striking out 14 in 10 1/3innings.

Summer possibilities

SP MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres: One of the minors’ most talented pitchers, Gore’s issues with his mechanics have kept him from making that last jump to the majors. In his first start with Triple-A El Paso, he pitched in and out of trouble over four innings, yielding five hits, three walks and three runs.

With a deep starting rotation already bolstered by the addition of prospect Ryan Weathers, the Padres won’t promote Gore, 22, until he shows more consistency.

OF Travis Swaggerty, Pittsburgh Pirates: The 2018 first-rounder impressed the Pirates brass last year with his performance at the alternate training site and was rewarded with an aggressive assignment to Class AAA Indianapolis this spring. At 23, he’s shown more speed than power so far.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: For a brief moment during spring training, Witt, 20, appeared to have a chance of making the big-league roster. Some loud home runs will do that. Instead, he’s starting the season at Class AA Northwest Arkansas, where he might also play some second base and outfield to open multiple pathways to Kansas City.

Follow Steve Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jarred Kelenic, other top prospects await big league debuts