Soccer odds, free picks & betting tips: 11/29

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BLOWN WIDE OPEN

A stunning loss to Union Berlin last time out has brought Bundesliga leader Borussia Monchengladbach back to the pack – and RB Leipzig will be looking to capitalize this week as the No. 2 team in the standings visits Paderborn on Saturday. Leipzig (-275) have reeled off three consecutive victories to move to within one point of the German League lead, and have a Bundesliga-best +20 goal differential through 12 games. 

Three more points in Matchweek 13 appear to be a foregone conclusion against Paderborn (+550), who sit dead last in the standings with just one win and five points to date.

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MAKING ANOTHER RUN

Leicester City are making the kind of run that brings back fond memories of their unfathomable 2015-16 English Premier League title. The current EPL runners-up carry a five-game domestic winning streak into Sunday's showdown with visiting Everton, and come in boasting the best goal margin in the league to date at +23. 

The hosts (-163) remain a full eight points back of table-leading Liverpool, but are heavy favorites to keep pace against an Everton squad (+425) that has just four wins from 13 games so far this season. Of note: the away team won both meetings last season.

 

FREE FALLING

Napoli fans are officially in panic mode following another lost opportunity in domestic action. The defending Serie A runners-up have gone five league games without a victory entering Sunday's meeting with visiting Bologna, earning just four points over that span to slip all the way to seventh in the standings. 

However, Napoli are -200 favorites this weekend against Bologna (+550), who are languishing in 15th place with just a single point earned from their previous four domestic encounters. But the hosts will need to be wary, having dropped a 3-2 decision to Bologna the last time they squared off back in May.

 

BIG TEST FOR BARCA

None of the top teams can get separation atop the La Liga standings – but Barcelona can take matters into their own hands as they visit Atletico Madrid on Sunday. Barca share the points lead with Real Madrid atop the table, but with four other teams sitting within five points of top spot, there is little margin for error. 

Not only are fourth-place Atletico (+175) one of those teams in the mix, they've gone unbeaten in their past 14 home games in league play. That said, Barcelona (+160) have been the superior team in recent meetings, having gone eight straight matches (four wins, four draws) without a loss.

 

BETTING TRENDS

• Bournemouth's recent visits to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have been a major downer for the away side as the teams face off Saturday. Not only have Spurs won each of their previous four home encounters with Bournemouth, they've held the visitors without a goal in that span. The Tottenham clean sheet should spark some interest at +137.

• West Ham have given Chelsea all sorts of trouble – and might be catching the Blues at the right time as they head to Stamford Bridge for a Saturday tilt. Coming off a league loss to Man City and a Champions League draw with Valencia, Chelsea must now face a West Ham side it has beaten just once in four meetings, with each going below the total. We like the U2.5 at +175.

• Free betting squares are fun – and they don't come much freer this weekend than the O2.5 play on Sunday's Napoli-Bologna showdown. The teams have surpassed the 2.5-goal threshold in each of their previous 13 matches, including a pair of 3-2 decisions in favor of the home teams last season. The O2.5 (-175) should be popular, while the O3.5 (+137) is also in play.

• Genoa and Torino know how to put on some competitive games – and bettors will be curious to see if they can extend that trend Saturday at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The teams have played eight straight games that either ended in a draw or were decided by a goal; with the home team 4-2-2 in that span, we recommend the Tie play on the Genoa -1 handicap at +300.

• Valencia have dominated their head-to-head series with Villarreal as the teams do battle Saturday at Mestalla Stadium. Host Valencia have won all three meetings with Villarreal this calendar year, outscoring their opponents by a ridiculous 8-1 margin in the process. Banking on that trend to continue makes the Valencia -1 handicap an intriguing option at +333.

• Will Sevilla and Leganes be on their best behavior for a second consecutive meeting? Time will tell as the clubs face off Sunday at Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium. After combining for 12 yellow cards and two reds in their previous two meetings, the teams drew just two yellow cards in their last tilt. The O5.5 for this weekend's game is +110, while the U5.5 is set at -150.

• Do you like high-scoring Bundesliga games? We have just the thing for you, as Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen look to trade tallies Saturday at famed Allianz Arena. The sides have gone above the 2.5-goal barrier in each of their previous five meetings in all competitions, averaging 4.8 combined goals along the way. We recommend the O3.5 at -125.

Borussia Monchengladbach came up empty in the goal column at Union Berlin – but that shouldn't be a problem this weekend as they host fourth-place Freiburg. Monchengladbach have converted the half-time/full-time double in three straight home games while scoring 3 or more goals in each. Consider taking the home side O2.5 at a tantalizing +240.

 

TEAM NEWS

• Arsenal might soon have a new head coach following their latest disappointing result, a 2-1 Europa League defeat at the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt. Calls for Unai Emery's firing have ratcheted up with the Gunners now winless in their previous seven games, their longest such span since 1992. The seventh-place club has fallen to +600 to finish top-4 in the EPL standings. 

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