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Six games into his $100m reign, Jon Gruden looks a disaster for the Raiders

The Oakland coach is what we thought he was: cantankerous, old-school and arrogant. Time away from the game hasn’t changed that

Jon Gruden talks with quarterback Derek Carr, who has failed to come back from a drop in form this season
Jon Gruden talks with quarterback Derek Carr, who has failed to come back from a drop in form this season. Photograph: Kelvin Kuo/AP

Does Jon Gruden feel the tiniest bit of regret about returning to the sidelines? Or do his melodramatic, this-is-everyone’s-fault-but-mine press conference antics prove he is as entrenched as ever, the only guy able to restore the Raiders to their halcyon days?

A normal human may feel both of those emotions: overwhelming self-doubt combined with a belief they can solve it. But this is no ordinary man. This is Jon Effing Gruden.

In semi-retirement, he was pumped up as the knower of all football, paraded the nation over, every coaching cycle, as the man who could ride to the aid of a franchise, college or pro, and fix all of its ills with the flick of a magic, schematic wand, before signing a massive contract extension to stay in ESPN’s commentary booth.

Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis eventually tempted him back. It took all of the 10-years, $100m guaranteed (only a slight pay rise on his ESPN deal) in his eye-popping contract to seal the deal.

Gruden arrived in Oakland espousing all of the Grudenisms that made him in one instance entertaining, in another a caricature. He promised to Make Football Great Again, restoring the 1990s tough, physical style that eludes the self-entitled young pups these days. “I’m trying to throw the game back to 1998,” he told reporters in February, shortly after his appointment to the Raiders job.

Indeed, Gruden went on a media blitz prior to the start of the season. He wasn’t out of touch, he said. A decade away from coaching was nothing. If anything, his time away was an advantage, Gruden’s defenders would have you believe. He had spent all that free-time cycling through the league cherry-picking the best components from everyone else’s program. What could go wrong?

As it turns out, pretty much everything.

The Raiders have sunk to 1-5 this season, and are bottom of the AFC West. Gruden traded the team’s star, Khalil Mack, a future Hall of Fame edge-rusher at the peak of his athletic powers, in part because his owner didn’t have the cash on hand to put the guaranteed portion of any Mack extension into escrow (as is mandated by NFL rules). Gruden shipped the brilliant pass-rusher to Chicago … then grumbled about the difficulties of finding a brilliant pass-rusher.

The situation looks ever worse when you consider that there was a genuine debate not that long ago about which team had the most potential in the league: Jacksonville or Oakland. The Jaguars were deeper, but the Raiders had Mack and quarterback Derek Carr, two building blocks that would get any coach excited.

Six weeks into the 2018 season, all that hope has evaporated. Mack is gone and the Raiders must do their best without him. That leaves Carr, who has hit a worrying slump. Part of Gruden’s appeal was that he could elevate Carr’s game. In Carr’s first three seasons in the league, he tossed 81 touchdowns to 31 interceptions. He completed 60% of his throws, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, both fine figures. He was even a fringe MVP candidate in 2016.

A broken leg ended his 2016 campaign early. In the 21 games since his return, Carr has thrown 29 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. His sack rate has catapulted to close to two a game. His completion percentage and yards per attempt are up. But they’re mostly empty calories: just look at Carr’s contribution against the Seahawks last week, where he appeared afraid to launch any deep throws:

A fringe Pro Bowler has become a net-negative for his team. Carr has already been sacked 17 times this season in six games. Last season, he was sacked 20 times in 15 games. Plus, Carr leads the NFL in giveaways. Admittedly, the Raiders left and right tackle spots have been turnstiles but the interior of their line remains one of the best groups in the league.

Gruden can’t be blamed completely for Carr’s decline, which started last season, but the team doesn’t appear to trust the play-calling, a big reason for the uptick in quarterback pressures. Something just feels off with this whole ordeal and Gruden has fallen back into his worst habits: Carr can’t do everything so we’ll get him to do practically nothing.

Then there’s Gruden’s insistence on playing players in the twilight of their careers. Marshawn Lynch, 32, has been the team’s top skill position player, while Reggie Nelson, a 35-year old safety, has been the team’s most dependable defensive player. The rickety bones of Leon Hall and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (33 and 32 respectively) were crawling around in the team’s secondary against the Seahawks last weekend. Meanwhile, the 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley didn’t play a snap. “I want to see more Gareon Conley”, Gruden said during a fiery Tuesday press conference, apparently oblivious to the fact that he controls the cornerback’s playing time.

The game, however, has not passed Gruden by, as some critics claim. He’s adjusted his system, schematically, in smart ways. That was never going to be the issue. It was everything else: the smartest-guy-in-the-room attitude; the culture he brings; his personnel evaluations.

Gruden is who we thought he was, a cantankerous, old-school, arrogant coach. Time away from the game hasn’t changed that. There was a reason he was sat in ESPN’s booth, to begin with. Tampa Bay fired him after averaging eight wins a season. His career record is a smidge above .500. It could drop below that by the end of the season.

“If I can’t get it done, I’m not going to take their money,” Gruden said in July. Davis may want to get that in writing.