How many games does each hot seat coach need to win to keep his job?
Yahoo Sports’ Pete Thamel broke down what college football coaches could be on the hot seat in 2017. So here at Dr. Saturday we will take a look at some of the coaches on Pete’s list and attempt to guess what games will be must wins for those coaches and what regular season record would be enough to keep their jobs safe for the 2018 season.
• Jim Mora, UCLA: It’s not too often that you get to coach a quarterback who you think could be the No. 1 NFL draft pick after his freshman season. Now that Josh Rosen is a junior, Mora’s team has to rebound from a 4-8 season in 2016 and find a way to run the football with new offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch.
As Pete notes, Mora’s buyout at UCLA is pretty hefty. But it’s safe to say that another 4-8 season isn’t going to go well for Mora’s job security. Perhaps the inverse is in order? UCLA’s schedule is one of the toughest in the country. In addition to opening the season vs. Texas A&M, the Bruins draw Stanford, Washington, and Oregon from the Pac-12 North and only the latter team travels to Los Angeles.
Must-win game: Oct. 21 vs. Oregon
2017 target record: 8-4
• Brian Kelly, Notre Dame: There are only so many 4-8 jokes someone can make. We’re guilty of doing it, so we can’t take the moral high ground here. But four our moral sanity, we h(eight) to think of another offseason of jokes about a repeat four-win season for the Irish.
We’re sure Kelly won’t be able to stand them either. At the very least, his fundraising efforts will be hampered. Notre Dame returns 15 starters and, like UCLA, has a very tough schedule. The must-win game we’re picking below is a game the Irish should win at home if Notre Dame’s top 25 existence is legitimate.
Must-win game: Oct. 28 vs. NC State
2017 target record: 8-4
• Mark Dantonio, Michigan State: Ater 36 wins in three seasons, one 3-9 season shouldn’t mean a coach is on the hot seat. So the expectations for Michigan State shouldn’t be extremely high in 2017 with four starters returning on each side of the ball and a number of high-profile recruits no longer with the team.
If Dantonio gets the team to .500 in an absolutely loaded Big Ten East, that should be good enough. Michigan State should be better than Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers anyway.
Must win game: Nov. 18 vs. Maryland
2017 target record: 6-6
• Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech: The average score of a Texas Tech game was 43.7-43.5 in 2016. The good news for Texas Tech is the Red Raiders were the higher number. But is there much good news when you give up over 60 points three different times … including once to Iowa State?
Ryan Gosling’s long-lost twin brother needs to get his team to play some defense. And not be the team that is in the same zip code as Kansas in the Big 12 standings. Don’t laugh, the Jayhawks should be better in 2017 and Tech travels to Lawrence. Kingsbury should not be the second coach of a Texas school to lose in Lawrence in the last two seasons.
Must win game: Oct. 7, Kansas
2017 target record: 7-5
• Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: Where have you gone, Arizona relevancy? After going 8-5, 8-5 and 10-4 in his first three seasons with the Wildcats, Rodriguez’s teams have gone 7-6 and 3-9 in the past two seasons.
QB Donavan Tate — a former first-round MLB draft pick and a 2009 high school graduate — is an intriguing Chris Weinke-like option at quarterback. But expecting him to turn around Arizona himself is not realistic. As Pete noted, the Nov. 25 game vs. Arizona State may be pivotal.
Must win game: Nov. 25 vs. Arizona State
2017 target record: 6-6
• Todd Graham, Arizona State: While Florida Atlantic’s Lane Kiffin has gotten a lot of attention for hiring former Baylor offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, the most important former Baylor staffer in 2017 may be ex-defensive coordinator Phil Bennett. Graham hired the longtime defensive coordinator to steer his defense, which gave up 40 points a game and allowed 4.9 yards a play in 2016. In 2015, Arizona State’s defense gave up 3.6 yards a play.
Graham also put former Alabama assistant Billy Napier in charge of the offense. The coach-player marriage of Napier and former Alabama quarterback Blake Barnett better pay immediate dividends.
Must win game: Nov. 25 vs. Arizona
2017 target record: 7-5
• Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: This is the first coach on the list whose athletic director has laid down a number to achieve in 2017. It was curious why Texas A&M athletic director Scott Woodward said in May that a fourth-straight season of 8-5 wasn’t good enough for Sumlin. But it’s also curious why Texas A&M fans have such outsized expectations for their program on a consistent basis.
Anyway, we know that an 8-4 regular season with a bowl win or a 9-3 regular season with a bowl loss is needed. But how is A&M going to get there? You’ll remember from the top of the post that UCLA is on A&M’s schedule and the Aggies travel to Florida as part of its SEC East rotation in 2017.
Must win game: Sept. 23 vs. Arkansas
2017 target record: 8-4, or 9-3 depending on the bowl game
• Butch Jones, Tennessee: This is where we find out how well Jones’ recruiting will pay off. Gone are QB Josh Dobbs, RBs Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd and WR Josh Malone. Oh, and DE Derek Barnett, a first-round pick.
With Florida and Georgia expected to be better in 2017 and Tennessee needing to replace some key contributors, can Jones afford a down year even if it’s filled with numerous moral championships? A 7-6 campaign and a fourth or worse finish in an SEC East that could be better in 2017 will make the natives restless.
Must win game: Oct. 14 vs. South Carolina
2017 target record: 8-4
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of Dr. Saturday and From the Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
