Season Finale 500k DFS Gems

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The best thing about Daily Fantasy is the clock resets every week.

The same is true in the Cup series at Phoenix Raceway as the Championship 4 contenders have had their points equalized. In a head-to-head (to-head-to-head) matchup, the trophy will go whichever of these four drivers finish ahead of the others. Since NASCAR implemented this strategy, that driver has always been the race winner and it’s likely Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. will earn maximum points.

DraftKings knows this and they are also the most expensive drivers in the field. Experiment to see what you need to get two of the marquee drivers on a lineup and be prepared to set multiple rosters with each of them anchoring the list.

This spring, second-place finisher Joey Logano earned the most points with 101.85. He was followed by Truex (88.4) and Hamlin (66.35). Larson (52.5) and Elliott (44.5) also landed inside the top 10 and with a lot more on the line this week, it’s a fair assumption they will be more productive for the Season Finale 500k.

Players will not want to forget about the rest of the field. After all, a roster is made up of six drivers and it’s likely that you will have some significant accumulation of value from those drivers. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski have been historically strong on this course. This March, Aric Almirola was also a top-five producer.

Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,800)
Elliott does not do well in chaotic situations. That is one of the reasons he is among the worst on restarts, and it can take a while for him to get his groove back once he is roughed up. That is a concern for fans and bettors who want the outright win, but it doesn’t need to be a huge problem for DraftKings players. Elliott finished 16th last week, but still earned the most points by a wide margin. Elliott will be in contention for the win for most of the race and that will earn major points.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)
We highlighted Truex last week and he came through with a solid top-five finish. If not for the concern that he might not advance to the Championship 4 with late race damage, he would have challenged for the win. There is no reason to hold back at Phoenix this week because second-place will truly be the first loser. If any of the contenders have a shot, rest assured they will take it and since the top four were dominated by them last year, it’s likely they will be in contact when the checkers wave.

Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)

Brad Keselowski ($9,100)
Keselowski has been one of the hottest drivers during the playoffs and if he had more than eight bonus accumulated when they began, he might be part of the Championship 4. He was in contention last year when he crossed under the checkers second to Elliott. He followed that with a fourth this spring in what was a mostly erratic start to the year. On the other 1-mile flat track in New Hampshire, he finished third and is coming off another third last week in Martinsville.

Joey Logano ($8,900)
Logano has been the most consistent driver on short, flat tracks in the past several years. Since early in 2019, he has amassed 11 top-fives, 16 top-10s and an 11th in his last seven races with an average of 5.1. At Phoenix proper, he has top-three finishes in his last three attempts and top-10s in the last five. As only the 10th-most expensive driver in the field for the Season Finale 500k, players can afford to take a risk and place him on the roster first. Slightly above the average-cost-per player, he barely moves the needle.

Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)

Austin Dillon ($7,300)
Dillon was one of our favorites last week and he challenged for the Xfinity 500 win. The conflict that began at Kansas between him and Ryan Blaney continued at Martinsville and the No. 3 sustained significant damage on the bullring. For most of the season, Dillon has been a driver who finishes in the teens and that consistency works in his favor on short, flat tracks where his worst effort was a 17th with a best of 10th. In six races on this course type, he has an average finish of 13.7, which is in line with his salary cap.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)
The same notes apply to DiBenedetto. In six short, flat track races this year his worst finish is 18th and a best of ninth. He has a slightly better average of 13.2 and a higher cap by $600. If one expands the parameters, however, DiBenedetto has been better, longer. Dating back to early 2019, he has six top-10s and 13 top-15s in 16 races. Four of these top-10s came last year with one happening in the season finale at Phoenix.

Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)

Chase Briscoe ($6,400)
Buescher is flying high off his ninth-place finish last week in Martinsville. That was his second top-15 of the season on this course type and even though he missed that mark at Phoenix, it wasn't by much. Buescher's 18th-place finish in the Instacart 500k didn't turn a lot of heads, but it earned 24 points and that might be enough if to validate this bargain-basement driver.

Corey LaJoie ($6,000)
LaJoie has been a pleasant surprise a few times this year. His name gets called with a little regularity in the early and middle stages of a race, but often he slips in the closing laps once he's fallen off the lead lap. On short, flat tracks, he's hovered in the low-20s for much of the season with a 21st at Richmond Raceway and Martinsville last week. He was 23rd on the other 1-mile flat track of New Hampshire Motor Speedway. With a little luck, he could get his first top-10 on this course type in the Season Finale 500k.

The top-10 points’ earners from the 2021 Instacart 500k were: Joey Logano (101.85), Martin Truex, Jr. (88.4), Denny Hamlin (66.35), Kevin Harvick (54.95), Aric Almirola (53), Kyle Larson (52.5), Brad Keselowski (48.05), Ryan Blaney (47.05), Chase Elliott (44.5), and William Byron (41.15).

Last 45 Days

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group A

Kyle Larson

8.83

405.45

67.58

$11,500

35.26

Chase Elliott

10.67

345.15

57.53

$10,800

31.96

William Byron

12.33

267.35

44.56

$10,000

26.74

Denny Hamlin

11.50

284.30

47.38

$11,000

25.85

Martin Truex Jr.

18.67

153.60

25.60

$10,400

14.77

Group B

Kurt Busch

12.00

237.25

39.54

$8,400

28.24

Christopher Bell

14.33

208.05

34.68

$8,700

23.91

Brad Keselowski

14.00

210.85

35.14

$9,100

23.17

Tyler Reddick

16.33

191.60

31.93

$8,500

22.54

Kevin Harvick

15.33

200.70

33.45

$9,300

21.58

Ryan Blaney

14.00

200.35

33.39

$9,500

21.09

Joey Logano

17.50

174.95

29.16

$8,900

19.66

Kyle Busch

17.00

187.75

31.29

$9,800

19.16

Alex Bowman

21.00

155.15

25.86

$8,200

18.92

Aric Almirola

21.67

149.55

24.93

$8,100

18.46

Group C

Austin Dillon

14.33

206.10

34.35

$7,300

28.23

Erik Jones

17.67

185.50

30.92

$7,100

26.13

Daniel Suarez

17.50

174.35

29.06

$6,800

25.64

Cole Custer

19.00

165.90

27.65

$6,600

25.14

Bubba Wallace

17.67

178.10

29.68

$7,700

23.13

Matt DiBenedetto

19.00

160.20

26.70

$7,900

20.28

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

21.00

139.10

23.18

$7,500

18.55

Ross Chastain

24.50

103.15

17.19

$7,800

13.22

Ryan Newman

26.17

79.80

13.30

$6,900

11.57

Group D

Chris Buescher

13.50

224.50

37.42

$6,400

35.08

Chase Briscoe

18.00

170.35

28.39

$6,200

27.48

Michael McDowell

20.83

151.50

25.25

$5,700

26.58

Anthony Alfredo

22.00

126.60

21.10

$5,400

23.44

Corey LaJoie

24.17

111.70

18.62

$6,000

18.62

Quin Houff

27.50

83.90

13.98

$4,700

17.85

Garrett Smithley

28.00

71.00

14.20

$4,600

15.43

BJ McLeod

25.40

78.90

15.78

$5,200

15.17

Josh Bilicki

30.50

68.00

11.33

$5,000

13.60

Ryan Preece

26.50

77.55

12.93

$5,800

13.37

Cody Ware

28.83

60.45

10.08

$4,800

12.59

Justin Haley

27.83

67.80

11.30

$5,600

12.11

Joey Gase

30.20

47.45

9.49

$4,500

10.54

Timmy Hill

27.00

48.00

16.00

$4,900

9.80

David Starr

21.50

45.00

22.50

$5,100

8.82

DFS Gems for the Instacart 500k (Phoenix 1)
Foxwood Casino 301 (New Hampshire)
Xfinity 500 (Martinsville 2)