San Jose State vs. Hawaii: Why The Spartans Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Spartans look to hold on to the Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy in a road clash with the Warriors. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
A rivalry battle on the islands.
WEEK 9: San Jose State Spartans (3-5, 2-2 MW) vs. Hawaii Warriors (2-6, 0-3 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 28 — 9:00 PM PT/6:00 PM HT
WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Complex; Honolulu, HI
WEATHER: Isolated showers, 20% chance of rain, low of 72 degrees
TV: Spectrum Sports Pay-Per-View (Hawaii only)
STREAMING: For college football fans on the mainland, the game can only be streamed using the Team1Sports application. That is available for download on Android and Apple devices and over-the-top platforms like Roku and Amazon Fire. Please note that the game will not be available on desktops or laptops.
RADIO: The San Jose State broadcast can be found in and around San Jose on 860 AM (KTRB). The Hawaii broadcast can be found and streamed on ESPN Honolulu or the Sideline Hawaii app, which is available on Google and Apple).
SERIES RECORD: The all-time series is tied, 22-22-1. In the last meeting on November 26, 2022, the Spartans defeated the Warriors, 27-14, in San Jose.
LAST GAME: San Jose State beat Utah State at home, 42-21, while Hawaii lost on the road to New Mexico, 42-21.
ODDS: San Jose State -10
SP+ PROJECTION: San Jose State by 8.9
FEI PROJECTION: San Jose State by 12.9
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: San Jose State 77.61% win probability (32.87-22.44)
— San José State Football (@SanJoseStateFB) October 24, 2023
After securing their third win of the season last Saturday, the San Jose State Spartans will cap off college football’s Week 9 slate with a late-night date against the Hawaii Warriors.
It marks the fifth iteration of the Dick Tomey Legacy Game, a contest which San Jose State hasn’t lost since 2019. Hawaii also represents arguably the most winnable game left on the Spartans’ schedule, so rallying to secure back-to-back bowl bids for the first time since 1986-87 is likely to mean they won’t want to get tripped up as road favorites.
Here’s what San Jose State can do to make it four wins in a row over the Warriors.
Three Keys to a San Jose State Victory
1. Knuckle down in the red zone on defense.
One problem that has plagued the Spartans all season is a propensity to give up six points rather than three when opponents get inside the 20-yard line. Not only have the Spartans allowed a 96.3% overall red zone conversion rate, they’ve coughed up a touchdown on 88.9% of such trips; both rates are the worst in the Mountain West.
If there’s one silver lining upon which Derrick Odum’s unit can capitalize, it’s that Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager can be somewhat erratic in the red zone. While his 13 passing touchdowns on 59 attempts lead the conference, he’s also thrown three interceptions and has only completed 49.2% of his passes inside the 20.
2. Win the turnover battle.
If San Jose State can continue to create its own breaks, this is one area of the game where the Spartans could run away with a win. They’ve generated seven takeaways in four conference games so far, tied for the second-most in the conference, while Hawaii has given it away ten times on offense.
More critically, however, the Warriors have struggled all year to force turnovers of their own. Hawaii has just four takeaways in eight games to date, which is something that should bode well for Chevan Cordeiro and his 1.2% interception rate and, more broadly, a Spartans offense that has lost three fumbles this year.
3. Figure out how to exploit a weak Warriors offensive line.
In a run-and-shoot offense that’s thrown the ball roughly 43 times per game this year, it won’t come as a shock that Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager has taken a Mountain West-high 28 sacks in eight games. However, in the last two weeks against San Diego State and New Mexico, the Warriors have only allowed three sacks in 104 total dropbacks, which perhaps signals some subtle progress in the trenches.
It will be important for the Spartans, then, to disprove that. San Jose State is one of four Mountain West teams with a trio of players — Tre Smith, Noah Lavulo, and Bryan Parhum — that has at least ten quarterback hurries (Boise State, Colorado State, and UNLV are the others), so it may be up to them to frustrate the Warriors offense enough and enable Cordeiro and company to put the game out of reach.
Hawaii hasn’t seen much improvement on defense in 2023, as they currently rank 131st in available yards percentage allowed per drive and 132nd in points per drive allowed. The Spartans haven’t exactly been great on that side of the ball, either, but they should have enough offensive firepower to approximate their performance against Utah State last Saturday.
San Jose State 42, Hawaii 28