Saints-Seahawks DFS Picks: Pay up for Alvin Kamara, then what?
By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Yahoo is expanding its daily fantasy football options in 2021 with a single-game offering. Yahoo has a roster construction of one "Superstar" that scores at a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the "Superstar" salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.
Coming off their bye week, the New Orleans Saints travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks.
It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players who can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players who could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.
Vegas Total and Spread
New Orleans is a 4-point road favorite in a game with an Over/Under of 41.5 points. The Saints have an implied team total of 22.75 points, while the Seahawks have an implied team total of 18.75 points.
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Potential Game Flow Scenarios
Is this the week we get to see Jameis Winston ($25) air out the ball? He may not have to with the Seahawks defense ($10) 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the running back position. Alvin Kamara ($35) had his best game of 2021 in Week 5. It included two total touchdowns on 21 total touches. Kamara has had at least 21 total touches in four of five games with his worst total being 14 when Carolina shut down the Saints' offense.
If the Saints do decide to test the Seattle passing attack, Winston’s receiving options are limited. Michael Thomas (PUP), Tre’Quan Smith (IR-designated to return), Taysom Hill (concussion), and Deonte Harris (hamstring) will not play. That leaves Marquez Callaway ($18), Juwan Johnson ($11), Kenny Stills ($10), Adam Trautman ($10) and Ty Montgomery ($10). This list is one of the reasons why Winston has not topped 30 pass attempts in any game this season.
The same cannot be said for Geno Smith ($20). It took all of one start for Smith to throw more than 30 passes as the Seahawks lost a heartbreaker in Pittsburgh last week. Two things work in Smith’s favor: He has one of the best receiving duos in football and the Saints are 29th in aFPA against the position. DK Metcalf ($25) and Tyler Lockett ($20) have a better chance to make a difference in Week 7 than they did against a strong Steelers defense. Both had seven targets in Week 6 but Metcalf finished with six catches. Lockett had two in a game where Smith could not find a connection with him.
The Seahawks also have a corps of pass-catchers at multiple positions to help Smith avoid mistakes against a defense with nine interceptions. Will Dissly ($10), Gerald Everett ($10), Freddie Swain ($10), Alex Collins ($20), DeeJay Dallas ($12), and Travis Homer ($10) all have average target depths of 6.1 yards or fewer and have seen at least one target per game. Smith deserves praise for taking what is available in the passing game — he completed a pass to 10 different pass-catchers Week 6.
The Saints defense ($19) has been one of the best against the run (10th in aFPA) but Alex Collins has had none of it against good defenses in place of injured RB Chris Carson. One week after struggling against the Rams, Collins ran for 101 yards in Pittsburgh, averaging 5.5 yards per rush. Seattle will try to #EstablishIt as another way to limit Smith’s exposure to errors.
Also of note, Rashaad Penny returns for Seattle but is not available in Yahoo’s offering. He is another player who can take away from Collins’ workload as a pass-catcher.
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Close, low-scoring game
Alex Collins
Seahawks defense
Alvin Kamara
Jameis Winston
Saints defense
Close, high-scoring game
Geno Smith
Alex Collins
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
Gerald Everett
DeeJay Dallas
Jameis Winston
Alvin Kamara
Marquez Callaway
Juwan Johnson
Blowout for home team
Geno Smith
Alex Collins
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
Gerald Everett
Will Dissly
DeeJay Dallas
Saints defense
Jameis Winston
Alvin Kamara
Marquez Callaway
Blowout for road team
Jameis Winston
Alvin Kamara
Marquez Callaway
Kenny Stills
Juwan Johnson
Adam Trautman
Saints defense
Geno Smith
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
DeeJay Dallas
Cheap/Unique Stacking Option
Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.
Alex Collins ($20) and DeeJay Dallas ($12)
Geno Smith is not a good quarterback and the best way to avoid a blow-up spot with him is to keep the running game involved. Collins should see close to 20 touches again as long as his groin injury allows him to, but if he has to cede carries, it appears Dallas is the option. He had the second-most carries in Week 6 and led the backfield in targets and receptions. With Rashaad Penny just returning from IR, I do not expect him to have a big enough role to hurt Dallas’ role, especially if the Seahawks fall behind.
Low-Salary Volatile Plays
Gerald Everett ($10) and Will Dissly ($10)
The tight end duo combined for four catches, 48 yards, and one touchdown (to Dissly) in Week 6. Everett’s pricing is especially suspect. He sandwiched his inactive games (COVID-19) with seven catches on eight targets for 94 yards.
Adam Trautman ($10)
It took five weeks but Trautman outproduced Juwan Johnson against Washington. Both tight ends are in play, especially with the Saints hurting for pass-catchers.
Kenny Stills ($10)
Only Marquez Callaway out-targeted Stills in Week 5. Stills has a secure role until the receiving corps gets players back on the field.
Ty Montgomery ($10)
Montgomery is in play if you believe the Saints are passing the ball/trailing. He had three catches for 42 yards when the Saints were trailing the Giants big at home in Week 4.
Superstar Picks
Marquez Callaway ($18)
He is the Saints’ best active receiver and downfield threat going against one of the worst secondaries in football.
Alvin Kamara ($35)
He will be the no-brainer, highest-rostered player in the Superstar slot. Touches for running backs remain key and Kamara will see the most in this game.
Alex Collins ($20)
There is a chance Collins out-carries Kamara tonight. A strong Collins game will give you a contrarian Superstar pick and keep the Saints' offense off the field.
Tyler Lockett ($20)
If I am rostering a Seahawks receiver at Superstar, I want the cheapest option that will have lower rostership because of recency bias. DK Metcalf is one of the best in the game but the Saints defense is going to attack Smith early and often. Lockett running from the slot gives Smith a top receiver that he can target without having to throw far beyond the line of scrimmage.
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com
Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
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