Rugby World Cup 2019 permutations: What does each team need to do to qualify for the quarter-finals?
As the Rugby World Cup pool stages head towards a thrilling finale on Sunday October 13, Telegraph Sport casts an eye over the goings-on in each pool.
We explain what each side needs to do to qualify for the quarter-finals, to be played on the weekend of October 19, as well as what a few of the weaker sides need to do to finish third in their pool and qualify automatically for the 2023 World Cup in France.
Pool A
Pool A is the complicated one. Japan will progress as Pool A winners if they beat Scotland on Sunday - that's for definite. If Japan lost to Scotland and Ireland beat Samoa with a bonus point, then Ireland will top the pool.
Ireland will qualify whatever happens if they can get a bonus-point win against Samoa on Saturday. Assuming Scotland get a bonus-point win against Russia on Wednesday, they will go through at Japan's expense - on head-to-head - if they beat the hosts in Yokohama and deny them a losing bonus point.
If Japan get a losing bonus point against Scotland, moving to 15 points, Scotland would have to get a winning bonus point to go through (on head-to-head). If Japan get a losing bonus point and a four-try bonus point (to move to 16 points) there is nothing Scotland can do even if they win both of their remaining matches with bonus points.
If Ireland beat Samoa without a bonus point on Saturday, there is a possibility that all three teams could end up on 15 points. The pool would then be decided by points difference, which is currently very tight.
Samoa could mathematically finish third, but that would require them to beat Ireland and Scotland to lose both of their remaining matches.
Pool B
South Africa's big win against Canada on Tuesday secured them a place in the quarter-finals. They will top the pool if New Zealand lose to Italy without picking up a bonus point.
One point for New Zealand in their match against Italy on Saturday would almost definitely be enough for them to top the pool, although they will be hoping for a win. Two points or more guarantees them top spot.
Italy have secured third place - at least. If they can beat New Zealand on Friday, and deprive them of a losing bonus point, then Italy will finish second at the All Blacks' expense. If Italy beat New Zealand and the All Blacks clinch a losing bonus point, then a four-try winning bonus point would leave South Africa, New Zealand and Italy all on 15 points. Qualification would then come down to points difference, which would probably result in Italy missing out.
Neither Namibia nor Canada can finish third or qualify from the pool.
Pool C
A draw or a win of any kind is enough for England to progress from Pool C as winners, while France, who have already qualified for the quarter-finals, need to win Le Crunch on Saturday to overtake England and top the pool.
Argentina will guarantee a third-placed finish with a win over the US on Wednesday. A loss, however, would open the door to Tonga and the Eagles.
If the US win both of their remaining matches - against Argentina and Tonga - then they will finish third.
Even if Tonga beat the US on Sunday in their final match of the tournament with a four-try bonus point, they cannot finish third. Tonga can finish on a maximum of six points, but their loss to Argentina means Los Pumas will always finish above them on head-to-head.
Pool D
One win in their final two matches against Fiji and Uruguay will be enough for Wales to secure a spot in the quarter-finals, and two wins will see them progress as Pool D winners. If Georgia beat Australia in both the teams' final pool match, then Wales will only need to win one of their two remaining matches to top the pool.
Australia will qualify for the quarter-finals if they beat Georgia on Friday, and will top the pool if Wales fail to win both of their remaining matches.
If Wales beat Fiji, Georgia will have to beat Australia to finish third in the pool but, if Fiji beat Wales, then Georgia will have no chance of finishing third. If Wales and Fiji draw, then Georgia will have to beat Australia with a four-try bonus point to finish third.
If Australia and Wales register large wins over Fiji and Georgia respectively, then Uruguay will have a chance to finish third if they beat Wales on Sunday, but they might need a four-try bonus point.
