Review of the MGLE Series 3 drop

·11 min read



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This week I wanted to take a deep dive into how the Challenges have impacted Moments from NBA Top Shot’s first Rare drop from Series 3, with last week’s release of the Metallic Gold Limited Edition (MGLE) set. One very interesting thing that I’ve noticed with the Challenge Moments this time around is that while they have seen serious dips once the clock on the Challenge strikes zero, unlike in previous Challenges, most of these Moments have recovered their value. If that’s a trend that holds, it’ll make completing Challenges a much more attractive endeavor.

Note: Graphs provided by OTM and Evaluate.Market

Value of MGLE sets over time

Top Shot has included an interesting wrinkle with their Challenges for the MGLE Series 3 set, requiring collectors to go after Moments with specific play types from MGLE’s Series 1 or 2 sets that match the play type of the Reward Moment, in addition to the other handful of S3, MGLEs that are required for the Challenge.

As an example, in the first Challenge – which featured a Khris Middleton assist as the Reward Moment – Top Shot required collectors to acquire two Moments from either Series 1 or 2 of the MGLE set that had “assist” as the play type in addition to eight Moments from the MGLE Series 3 set. In the second Challenge – which is ongoing and features a Davion Mitchell steal – Top Shot is requiring two “steals” Moments from either the MGLE S1 or S2 set in addition to the eight players from the MGLE S3 set. Because of this, we’ve not only seen a gradual rise in the cost of completing the MGLE S3 set, but we’ve also seen the MGLE Series 1 and 2 sets get a boost.

MGLE Series 3

MGLE S3
MGLE S3

MGLE Series 1

MGLE S1
MGLE S1

MGLE Series 2

MGLE S2
MGLE S2

If we’re to assume that the final Challenge of the MGLE S3 drop will follow the same construct as the first two, then that third Challenge (which will feature a Trae Young handles Moment as the Reward) will almost assuredly involve collecting two “handles” Moments from MGLE S1 or S2, in addition to the MGLE S3 Moments of Marcus Smart, Isaiah Stewart, Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and C.J. McCollum. With the Reward and required Moments already being known, it’ll be interesting to see if any of these guys receive a boost when that final Challenge is announced, or if we’ve already seen the pump.

Challenge 1

Reward: Khris Middleton
303 completions – Lowest ask $421

Challenge 1
Challenge 1

Cole Anthony

Cole Anthony
Cole Anthony

Anthony hit the market at $145, dipped down to the $130-range for about two hours after the drop, then shot up to $200 when the Challenge was announced and then settled around $150 for the duration of the Challenge. We saw this Moment tank all the way to $110 when the Challenge concluded, but it recovered by the next day to a lowest ask of $150. If Moments no longer tank after the completion of a Challenge – it’ll make going after these Challenges a lot more attractive.

Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner
Franz Wagner

Franz hit the market at $240, dipped down to $170 about 15 minutes after the drop, and then steadily climbed to $210 by the end of the night. Before the Challenge was announced he had settled around $250, then spiked to $345 roughly 20 minutes after the Challenge was announced and then hovered around $240 for most of the Challenge. After the Challenge ended he tanked to $214, but he’s since recovered to a lowest ask of $355. So, Wagner’s Moment actually increased in value after the challenge.

Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid

Embiid hit the market at $211, dipped to $175 roughly an hour after the drop and then gradually climbed back to $195 by the end of the night. When the Challenge was announced, Embiid was hovering around $210 and then shot up to $330, only to settle at $200 roughly 40 minutes later. His value hovered around $210 for most of the Challenge, collapsed to $165 post-Challenge, and then recovered to a lowest ask of $200.

Jordan Clarkson

Jordan Clarkson
Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson hit the market at $100, dipped to $70 roughly 20 minutes after the drop, and then settled around $100 before the Challenge was announced. After the announcement, he jumped to $175, but then dipped back to $110 about two hours after the Challenge was announced, and then he hovered in the $110-$125 range through the Challenge. Upon it’s conclusion, he tanked to $85, but has since recovered to a lowest ask of $97.

Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball
Lonzo Ball

Ball’s Moment saw the most movement with him opening at $285, dipping down to $180 about 30 minutes after the drop, and then he climbed all the way to $300 by the end of the night. He declined from that high to hover around $265 before the Challenge was announced, and then he shot up to a high of $420 during the Challenge and hovered in the $300-range. This Moment tanked to $210 after the Challenge concluded, but he’s since recovered to a lowest ask of $255.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic

Jokic hit the market at $299, dipped down to $200 about 10 minutes after the drop and then climbed back up to $245 an hour later. He settled around $230 before the Challenge was announced, spiked to a high of $299 shortly after the announcement, and then he settled around $250 for most of the Challenge. He then dipped to $200 once the Challenge concluded, but has since returned to a floor of $230.

Terry Rozier

Scary Terry
Scary Terry

Scary Terry hit the market at $120, dipped to $95 roughly 30 minutes after the drop, and then climbed back up to $110 by the end of the night. When the Challenge was announced, he spiked to a high of $210, but then returned to $116 about an hour later and then hovered around $115-$120 for most of the Challenge. After the Challenge was over, he tanked all the way to $89 but has since recovered to $127. So, this is another example where his floor increased after the Challenge had concluded.

Challenge 2

Reward: Davion Mitchell
Ongoing – 151 completions

Challenge 2
Challenge 2

Chris Paul

CP3
CP3

Unlike with most of these Moments, CP3’s opening price of $149 was actually the low point and then he saw a steady climb to $230 before the Challenge was announced. After the announcement, he spiked to a high of $299 and then declined to $200 over a two-hour period, where he’s settled at for the Challenge thus far.

LeBron James

LBJ
LBJ

King James’ inclusion in the second Challenge may be the reason so many of the other Moments tanked after this Challenge was announced, as his $1K+ price tag is likely out of reach for a lot of collectors. He hit the market at $1,200, dipped to $1,055 about two hours after the drop, but then recovered to $1,200 by midnight. He saw another dip to $1069 the morning after the drop, but then climbed to $1,329 before the second Challenge was announced. He did see a nice spike to $1,798 after the second Challenge was announced, but then is was a gradual decline to $1,280 over a two-hour period, and his current lowest ask is $1,335.

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks
Dillon Brooks

Brooks hit the market at $87, and then hovered in the $85-$90 range for a bit before settling at $94 by the end of the night. Despite not being a part of the first Challenge, he still spiked to $125 after the first Challenge was announced, then dipped to $100 about an hour later, and then saw a steady climb back to $124 before the second Challenge was announced. He got a small bump upon the announcement of the second Challenge, rising to $140, but then like most of the Moments in this second Challenge, he tanked to $105. I suspect the Moments in the second Challenge tanked due to the inclusion of LeBron James, which made completing the Challenge unattainable for non-whale Top Shot users.

Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole
Jordan Poole

Poole was another player whose first sale of $90 marked his low-point, and then he saw a steady rise to $210 before the second Challenge was announced. Unfortunately, after the second Challenge was announced, like most of these Moments, he tanked all the way to $155, so it’ll be interesting to see if he recovers to the $200-range post-Challenge.

Lu Dort

Dort
Dort

Dort’s Moment didn’t see much movement on the first day of the drop, with an opening bid of $99 and then a minor dip to $94, but he spiked all the way to $137 after the first Challenge was announced only to dip back down to the $110-range a few hours later. He then saw a steady rise to $130 before the second Challenge was announced, got a boost to $150 after the announcement, and then declined to $100 an hour later. Currently, his lowest ask sits at $107.

Miles Bridges

Bridges S3
Bridges S3

Bridges hit the market at $140, dipped to $120 about 10 minutes after the drop, and then climbed back up to $160 by the end of the night. He saw an initial spike after the first Challenge was announced to $205, dipped back down to $155 over a two-hour period, and then slowly built up to $200 before the second Challenge was announced. After that second announcement, he spiked to $250 but then tanked to $155 about two hours after the announcement, and he’s since settled at $175.

Reggie Jackson

Reggie
Reggie

Jackson arguably has the lowest star power amongst all the MGLE’s, and that was reflected in his opening bid of $79, but he shot up to $92 about 30 minutes after the drop and then settled around $90 pre-challenge. He saw a big boom when the first Challenge was announced, spiking all the way to $140, before tanking to $106 a few hours later, and then he saw a steady rise to the $130-range before the second Challenge was announced. Unfortunately, he quickly tanked to $105 once folks realized how costly the second Challenge would be, and he’s since settled at $98.

Takeaways

First, I would like to say that it appears the low Edition Size on these Moments has helped keep the floor relatively high, with almost none of these MGLE S3s touching the breakeven price of $85. That’s very good news for Top Shot moving forward, as it appears they’ve finally cracked the code with how to truly differentiate the higher-tiered Moments from the Commons. Second, it seems the floor on these Moments for All-Stars will be in the $200-range, while the other guys will hover around $100.

Looking at how to take advantage of “buying the dip,” it appears the 20-minute rule still applies in Series 3. Typically, you don’t want to be the first purchase after a release, as that is often a high point – you want to wait roughly 20-30 minutes after a drop to buy the dip – so set a timer. As an example, I was able to buy Lonzo Ball on the day of the drop for $215, and then I unloaded him for $298 later that night towards the peak of FOMO (fear of missing out). When analyzing a Moment, if you see it start to skyrocket with a straight line up on the lowest ask, then you’ll know you’re approaching the high point and it’s time to start thinking about unloading. When I’m in these situations, I’m less concerned with being the highest sale, and more concerned about getting the best profit I can within a certain window. Also, once that Moment reaches its high, it tends to be a quick decline back down, so you’ve only got about 20 minutes to make a decision to unload once you see the price start tanking.

At this point, I feel it’s a bit too late to buy in on the Moments for the final Challenge featuring Trae Young, as everyone already knows what will be required so the current prices may have that baked in. It’ll be interesting to see if they get one final pump when that last Challenge is announced, or if they’ll follow the same pattern as the Moments for the second Challenge did, in which they immediately tanked. It’s tough to tell if they tanked due to LeBron James being in the Challenge, or if it’s because everyone has their eyes set on Trae Young, but time will tell. Perhaps it was a bit of both.