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Who will be relegated? Predicting the relegation run-in after Everton points deduction

Sean Dyche (left), the Everton manager, and his Burnley counterpart Vincent Kompany - Who will be relegated? Predicting the relegation run-in after Everton points deduction

Everton’s second points deduction of the season has dragged the club ever closer to the Premier League relegation zone after a two-point sanction was added to the six they lost earlier this season for profit and sustainability breaches.

With Nottingham Forest also deducted four points for similar offences last month, the bottom of the table has been shaken up to leave a seven-team survival shoot-out with just a handful of games remaining.

Forest and Everton have both appealed their punishments, with the latter also having a potential third penalty applied with the Premier League disputing the level of overspend admitted by the Merseyside club. But based on the new table after Everton’s two-point penalty, Telegraph Sport predicts how the relegation dogfight will play out.

Crystal Palace’s run-in

Liverpool 3 Crystal Palace 0
Crystal Palace 1 West Ham United 2
Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle United 1
Fulham 1 Crystal Palace 1
Crystal Palace 1 Manchester United 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Crystal Palace 1
Crystal Palace 0 Aston Villa 1

Final predicted points total: 33

The run of three games against West Ham United and Newcastle United at home, followed by the trip to Fulham look pivotal. I have not predicted a win in any of these but if they can take three points from one of them, that will take the pressure off in the last three games which look extremely tough on paper.

Everton’s run-in

Chelsea 2 Everton 1
Everton 1 Nottingham Forest 0
Everton 0 Liverpool 2
Everton 1 Brentford 0
Luton Town 2 Everton 2
Everton 1 Sheffield United 0
Arsenal 4 Everton 0‌

Final predicted points total (after points deduction): 37

‌Everton’s remaining fixtures are kind, especially given the fact they play four teams in the bottom six before the end of the season. Sean Dyche’s side have also been here before and are capable of grinding out results when they need them. Goodison Park will be at its partisan best too. They should have enough to beat the drop yet again.

Brentford’s run-in

Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1
Luton Town 2 Brentford 2
Everton 1 Brentford 0
Brentford 2 Fulham 1
Bournemouth 1 Brentford 1
Brentford 0 Newcastle United 2

Final predicted points total: 37 points

If they can build on recent solid form and win the two games against Sheffield United and Luton Town, they should be fine but the trip to Goodison Park also looks like a make or break game for Thomas Frank’s side. Cannot keep relying on draws. They need wins or they will be sucked into danger.

Nottingham Forest’s run-in

Nottingham Forest 1 Wolves 1
Everton 1 Nottingham Forest 0
Nottingham Forest 1 Manchester City 4
Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2
Nottingham Forest 1 Chelsea 2
Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 1‌

Final predicted points total: 30

Perhaps the most difficult side to predict in the run-in as they have been playing well, especially at home. The bottom line is they will deserve to go down if they cannot beat two of the teams directly below them in the Premier League. The last-day trip to Burnley could make or break their survival bid.

Luton Town’s run-in

Manchester City 4 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 2 Brentford 2
Wolves 1 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 2 Everton 2
West Ham 1 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 1 Fulham‌ 0

Final predicted points total: 30

They have given themselves a chance, which most people would not have predicted back in August and they have some winnable games too against Brentford, Everton and Fulham at home. I have predicted draws in all three but they have surprised people all season and can do it again. If they can pick up another win from somewhere they could just pull off a remarkable escape.

‌Burnley’s run-in

Burnley 0 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1
Manchester United 3 Burnley 1
Burnley 0 Newcastle United 2
Tottenham Hotspur 3 Burnley 0
Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 2‌

Final predicted points total: 22‌

The damage has already been done and there are simply too many games against strong opponents for them to close the gap to fourth from bottom. By the time Nottingham Forest arrive on the final day, Vincent Kompany’s side will already be doomed.

Sheffield United’s run-in

Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1
Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1
Manchester United 3 Sheffield United 0
Newcastle United 4 Sheffield United 0
Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2
Everton 2 Sheffield United 1
Sheffield United 1 Tottenham Hotspur 3

Final predicted points total: 16‌

The home draw with Chelsea will have at least given them some hope that a miracle can happen but concede far too many goals and have only won three games all season. Chris Wilder will already have half an eye on making sure they are competitive in the Championship promotion hunt next season.

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