THE NORTHERN TRUST
Liberty National Golf Club
Jersey City, New Jersey
Patrick Reed’s won two FedExCup Playoffs events in 24 tries, both at this tournament.
So, let’s see. He’s won a WGC (Doral), a major (Masters), and now two post-season events (NJ/NY). The 29-year-old’s last three W’s read: FEC-Major-FEC, and improves to 5-for-7 (71.4%) when leading/co-leading at the three-quarter pole.
He’s qualified for the season-ending TOUR Championship five consecutive times – this year will be six – with a career-best 3rd in the final FEC standings in 2016. The only time Reed hasn’t made it to East Lake was in 2013, as a first-time member.
His pre-tourney odds outright in seven PGA TOUR wins:
16/1 (34-man field)
I tell ya’, this guy “don’t get no respect” around here. (Please excuse my New-York-native-Dangerfield reference).
Entering the week, the Texan was the perfect example of converging trends: Past champion of the event (in the area); five consecutive top-25 finishes on the season, two for top 10s, including 10th at The Open three starts ago.
He was an 18-hole co-leader and 36-hole leader when he won this tourney in 2016 at Bethpage Black (40/1), eventually coming from solo 2nd (one back) with 1-under 70 to win by one.
Overall, this is the Augusta University product’s sixth top 10 in the Playoffs, first since T6 at the 2017 Dell Tech Championship seven post-season events ago. He leapfrogs 48 places to 2nd in the FEC standings, 206 points back of leader Brooks Koepka, who maintained the top spot with an uninspiring T30.
There were some drawbacks going in. Reed hadn’t recorded a top 10 in the Playoffs in nearly two years. He missed the cut by six on debut here in 2013 (73-75), the last time the event was played at Liberty National, and had only been in the top 10 thru 54 holes once in his last 26 rounds this season; 4th at the inaugural Rocket Mortgage five starts ago (finished T5).
On the plus-side, however, he went 3-1-1 at the 2017 Presidents Cup at Liberty National, his 3.5 points tied-second-most for the winning squad’s 19.0 to 11.0 thumping of the Internationals.
Reed was first dubbed Captain America by Ryder Cup teammate and playing partner Jordan Spieth for his ruckus performance at the 2016 biennial edition at Hazeltine National, where Reed was the top points-getter (3.5 points) in the USA’s 17.0 to 11.0 beat down of the Euros.
By the way, Reed likes “Nationals”. More on that a bit later.
Final Leaderboard (pre-tourney odds outright):
1- (-16, 268) Patrick Reed (50/1)
2- (-15, 269) Abraham Ancer (125/1)
3- (-14, 270) Harold Varner III (300/1)
3- (-14, 270) Jon Rahm (14/1)
5- (-13, 271) Adam Scott (40/1)
Note: Repeat top-10 finishers in the event: Scott (5-5-4)
Note: Repeat top-10 finishers from 2013: Scott (5-1); Justin Rose (10-2)
Reed’s Position by Round:
R1: T9 (4 back)
R2: T3 (2 back)
R3: 1 (by 1)
Reed on Sunday:
After kicking off with 66-66, both rounds bogey-free, and 67, he began with a one-shot lead over playing competitor and third-year man Abraham Ancer.
Playing out of the final twosome, Reed hit 11 (of 14) fairways and 12 greens in regulation, posting 1.265 SG: Off-the-Tee, -0.471 SG: Approach, -0.375 SG: Around, and 0.420 SG: Tee-to-Green.
He squared three bogeys at holes 2, 3 and 6, offset by five circles at 1, 5, 8, 14 and 16, three from between seven and 14 feet. Reed, recorded 1.583 putts per GIR and 1.187 SG: Putting with 27 total putts, saving par two times from between seven and 10 feet, including a 9-footer on the 69th hole.
All told, it added up to a 2-under-par 36-33=69 and a one-shot win over Ancer for his seventh TOUR trophy in 202 events, first since the 2018 Masters 36 starts ago, also as a 54-hole leader and also as a pre-tourney 50/1 outright.
OUT: even-par 36 (3 birdies, 3 bogeys); Reed trails leader Rahm by one, who was 3-under thru 10, 15-under total.
IN: 2-under 33 (2 birdies, 0 bogeys); Reed WINS by one (over Ancer).
After an up-and-down start, he played his final 12 in blemish-free 3-under.
Rahm, one group ahead, played his final eight in 1-over (2 birdies, 3 bogeys) to dip to T3, alongside Harold Varner III, who recorded his first podium in 114 events after a 3-under 68 (5 birdies, 1 double).
Ancer, making his 75th career start, matched Reed’s 69 (4 birdies, 2 bogeys) to bag his first podium as well. He had an outside chance to force extra time but missed birdie at the 72nd hole from 42’8”.
For the week, Reed tallied 20 birdies versus just four bogeys, No. 1 in the latter.
How Reed Won the Tournament:
Ranked 1st (or T1) in: Total Bogeys; Birdie to Bogey Ratio
Ranked 2nd(or T2) in: SG: Off-the-Tee; Par-4 Scoring; Scrambling; All-Around
Note: See “Strokes Gained Leaders Stats” at the bottom, along with his full stats.
Least Important Stat(s): Par-5 Scoring (ranked T36); Proximity (T29); SG: Approach (27th)
Reed at THE NORTHERN TRUST:
Top 25s: 5 (71.4%)
Top 10s: 3 (42.8%)
Top 5s: 2 (28.5%)
Wins: 2 (28.5%)
Reed in the FedExCup Playoffs:
Top 10s: 6 (25.0%)
Wins: 2 (8.0%)
Form (last two seasons): 1-28-19-35-25
Reed’s TOUR Career:
Cuts Made: 160 (79.2%)
Top 25s: 94 (46.5%)
Top 10s: 39 (19.3%)
Top 3s: 12 (5.9%)
Wins: 7 (3.4%)
Cuts Made: 20
Top 25s: 13
Top 10s: 4
Top 5s: 2
Season Form (most recent 10): 1-22-12-10-23-5-30-32-MC-63
By the Numbers:
206: Koepka maintained the top spot in the FEC standings for a fourth week in a row. He entered with a 572-point lead over Rory McIlroy and now leads Reed by 206 points and McIlroy by 310, who dipped one spot to 3rd in the points-race.
2/1: Reed’s revised outright betting entering R4.
0: Of his seven wins, the number of times Reed has won in consecutive starts.
3: Of Reed’s seven wins, three have come on “National” courses, two straight: Liberty National; Augusta National; Trump National Doral. And let’s reiterate his performance at Hazeltine National at the 2016 Ryder Cup.
63: Reed closed out last week’s Wyndham with a season- and career-tying-low 63 to backdoor a T22.
19: In Reed’s last 24 rounds this season, he’s recorded 23 par-or-better laps with 19 of those in the red.
5: Reed connected four sub-par rounds for a fifth time this season (in 22 individual starts).
2nd: Ancer’s solo 2nd was a career best in 75 events and his first podium. It replaces a pair of previous-best T4s, most recently at the 2019 Shriners, and vaults him 59 spots to a career-high 8th in the FEC standings.
T3: Varner III’s T3 is a career best in 114 events and his first podium. It replaces a pair of previous-best T5s, most recently at the 2018 Greenbrier, and vaults him 73 spots to 29th in the FEC standings.
T3: Rahm’s T3 was his second in this event in three tries (T3/2017), and his fifth top 10 in nine Playoffs events. It’s his second straight after solo 7th at the WGC-FedEx, and 11th of the season in 18 events, the 11 matching a career best in 2017 (23 events). Rahm bumps five places to 5th in the FEC standings.
5: Scott’s backdoor solo 5th, culminating with a day-tying-low 65, was his third consecutive top 10 in this event, all top 5s. It’s his seventh top 10 of the season in 16 starts, three of those top 5s, including runners-up at the Memorial and Farmers. Scott jumps seven spots to 14th in the FEC standings.
T18: PGA TOUR rookie Wyndham Clark was top rookie (of eight) with T18, and jumped from 90th in FEC points to 68th, advancing on to the BMW. He was also top debutant of 21.
24: With 24 par breakers (24 birdies), Patrick Cantlay led the field in this stat. Unfortunately, he also ate 9 bogeys, 1 double and 1 triple for T12, his second straight T12 (WGC-FedEx).
70: Entering No. 70 in the FEC standings, bubble boy and recently minted TOUR rookie Matthew Wolff finished T71 (69-71-72-73) and is eliminated at 74th in the standings.
71: Making his tournament debut, second-year man Adam Schenk finished T24 to jump 13 spots in the FEC standings, but is the first man out at 71st, a measly 3 points shy of advancing.
70: The new bubble boy is first-time member (not a rookie) Joaquin Niemann, who’s T30 bumped him four spots to 70th in the standings, clipping Schenk.
67: One week after a 64-67 and birdie-less 77 to MDF, 2015 FEC champ Jordan Spieth answered a R3 74 this week with 67, up seven spots to T6. That’s his fourth top 10 of the season in 22 events, first since T7 at the Memorial six starts ago, and his first in the post-season since T7 at the 2017 TOUR Championship, where he entered the finale as the 1-seed. Even with the significant improvement on Sunday, he still ranks 192nd (of 195) in R4 scoring average on the season (72.63). For the week, the Texan ranked 2nd in SG: Putting (8.345) but 67th in SG: Off-the-Tee (-1.612).
T30: Reigning Player of the Year and World No. 1 Brooks Koepka, a pre-tourney 8/1 fave outright, finished T30 on 6-under 278 (70-69-69-70), 10 adrift.
FEC Playoffs Implications:
(FEC Top 70 advance to BMW Championship)
Harold Varner III (T3); from 102 to 29
Troy Merritt (T12); from 72 to 59
Wyndham Clark (T18); from 90 to 68
Joaquin Niemann (T30); from 74 to 70
Sergio Garcia (CUT); from 65 to 72
Danny Lee (81st); from 66 to 73
Matthew Wolff (T71); from 70 to 74
Kevin Streelman (CUT); from 68 to 75
Field Scoring Average:
This was the 13th NORTHERN TRUST (in the FEC era) and third at Liberty National (2013, 2009).
Par 71 (36-35)
SG: Total: 13.365
Strength of Field:
With a Strength of Field rating of 794 (up 25 from last year), Reed banks 74.00 world-ranking points:
OWGR: From 24 to 15 (up 9)
Note: Reed’s career high is 7th (after the 2017 CIMB)
With FEC points quadrupled, Reed hauls in 2,000 points:
FedExCup: From 50 to 2 (up 48)
Note: Reed’s career high is 1st after the 2016 Deutsche Bank
Leader/co-leaders by Round:
R1: Troy Merritt (finished: T12): Drops to 1-for-3 as 18-hole leader/co-leader
R2: Dustin Johnson (T24): Drops to 9-for-18 as 36-hole leader/co-leader
R3: Patrick Reed (Won): Improves to 5-for-7 as 54-hole leader/co-leader
R1: 62: Troy Merritt
R3: 63: Brandt Snedeker
R3: (0): NONE
R4: (1): Kevin Tway (65)
Multiple Bogey-free Rounds: Reed (x2)
A total of 85 players from a field of 121 made the 36-hole cut of 1-under 141:
40 (of 62) LATE/early; 1 WD (Chris Stroud: ELIMINATED)
Note: Bud Cauley made the cut but WD prior to R4 (illness): ELIMINATED
Note: Reed is the second straight EARLY/late winner of The NT and fifth in the last six, including his win in 2016 at Bethpage.
31 (of 44) tourneys this season with a traditional draw:
EARLY/late: 15 (Reed)
Season Winners, including team-Zurich:
20 winners were in their 20s (Reed age: 29)
18 were in their 30s
7 were in their 40s
Season Leaders in Top-10 Finishes:
13: Rory McIlroy
11: Jon Rahm
Consecutive Top 10s on TOUR:
2: Jon Rahm (3-7)
2: Rory McIlroy (6-4)
2: Ian Poulter (10-8)
Consecutive Top-10 Streak Ended:
2: Webb Simpson (18-2-2)
2: Billy Horschel (21-6-9)
2: Brooks Koepka (30-1-4)
2: Tommy Fleetwood (43-4-2)
Reed’s Weekly Stats (ranking of 84 players):
Birdies: 20 (T9)
Bogeys: 4 (1st)
Birdie or Better: 27.78% (T12)
Birdie to Bogey Ratio: 5.00 (1st)
Par-3 Scoring: 2.88 (T9)
Par-4 Scoring: 3.82 (T2)
Par-5 Scoring: 4.50 (T36)
Driving Accuracy: 44/56 (T8) at 78.57%
Driving Distance (all drives): 293.0 yards (T11)
GIR: 51/72 (T5) at 70.83%
Proximity: 35’2” (T29)
Putts per GIR: 1.686 (30th)
Total Putts: 109 (T25)
Putts by Round: 30-28-24-27
Scrambling: 17/21 (2nd) at 80.95%
Leaders in Strokes Gained Stats:
1. Abraham Ancer (5.960)
2. Patrick Reed (5.422)
3. Brian Harman (5.205)
4. Rory McIlroy (5.097)
5. Brooks Koepka (4.797)
1. Harold Varner III (9.500)
2. Louis Oosthuizen (9.295)
3. Ian Poulter (7.249)
4. Justin Thomas (6.076)
5. Jhonattan Vegas (5.916)
27. Patrick Reed (2.634)
1. Branden Grace (6.720)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (5.848)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (4.497)
4. Wyndham Clark (4.333)
5. Adam Scott (4.239)
21. Patrick Reed (2.140)
1. Billy Horschel (9.712)
2. Jordan Spieth (8.345)
3. Justin Rose (7.590)
4. Andrew Landry (6.597)
5. Troy Merritt (6.493)
20. Patrick Reed (3.168)
1. Abraham Ancer (13.720)
2. Harold Varner III (11.252)
3. Louis Oosthuizen (10.988)
4. Patrick Reed (10.200)
5. Ian Poulter (8.956)