Ranking opponent winning percentage for every SEC team

Schedules have long been set for the 2024 SEC football season. Texas has one of the most manageable schedules in the league.

The Longhorns face many of the lesser teams in the conference. They face the league’s bottom three teams from a season ago in Vanderbilt (2-10), Arkansas (4-8) and Mississippi State (5-7). Two of the Longhorns’ three true road games in conference play will be against Vanderbilt and Arkansas.

We don’t want to diminish the rivalry game effect Texas could face in road games against rabid home crowds at Arkansas and Texas A&M. Even so, the Longhorns already passed the biggest road test in the SEC last season in a 10-point road win over Alabama. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers wasn’t fazed then dropping 349 yards on the Tide defense. He shouldn’t be in Fayetteville or College Station either.

Let’s look at opponent winning percentages for each SEC team’s 2024 schedule.

Florida Gators

2024 opponent win percentage: 68%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 7-5

Discretion is the better part of valor, and Florida’s schedule maker didn’t have much of it making the team’s schedule. Last season, I had the Gators going 4-8 because of it. An upset win over Tennessee lifted the team to 5-7.

Vanderbilt Commodores

2024 opponent win percentage: 63%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 4-8

Taking away the 2-10 team as a scheduling option decreases the Commodores’ chances of fielding an easy schedule. Vanderbilt was the conference’s only 2-10 squad last season.

Alabama Crimson Tide

2024 opponent win percentage: 63%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 8-4

With head coaching legend Nick Saban gone and less than 32% of the team’s 2023 starters returning, everybody wants a piece of the Tide in 2024. Alabama will play Georgia, at LSU, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee and Missouri this season.

Oklahoma Sooners

2024 opponent win percentage: 62%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 8-4

Oklahoma could be better than their record in 2024 and might exceed our 8-4 prediction. The Sooners return several impact players on defense and at receiver. If new starting quarterback Jackson Arnold can play efficient football, the team could push for 10 wins.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

2024 opponent win percentage: 61%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 5-7

Mississippi State is seeing plenty of change most notably at quarterback and head coach. While head coach Jeff Lebby could have the offense humming a difficult schedule could diminish how effective a job he does in his first season.

Georgia Bulldogs

2024 opponent win percentage: 59%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 12-0

Georgia has lost two games in the last three seasons (42-2). While the schedule is tough, so are the Bulldogs. Expect the team to win the SEC in 2024.

Arkansas Razorbacks

2024 opponent win percentage: 59%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 3-9

A tough schedule is nothing new for Arkansas, but the Razorbacks don’t appear to be much better this season with a seeming lame duck head coach. Is Boise State quarterback transfer Taylen Green the answer? We’ll have to wait and see.

Kentucky Wildcats

2024 opponent win percentage: 58%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 6-6

Kentucky doesn’t catch many breaks in its 2024 schedule. On top of a difficult set of traditional SEC squads, the Wildcats add a road trip to face a 2023 playoff team in Texas. The ‘cats could get to eight wins but it will be tough.

South Carolina Gamecocks

2024 opponent win percentage: 58%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 5-7

Winning at South Carolina is an uphill battle to begin with, but the SEC’s No. 9 schedule is no cake walk. Add a road trip to face Oklahoma’s veteran defense to Carolina’s already tough conference slate.

Texas A&M Aggies

2024 opponent win percentage: 56%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 7-5

Could new head coach Mike Elko turn things around in College Station? Sure. Is he going to win 10 or 11 games in his first season? Doubtful. In his favor, however, he won’t have to face Georgia or Alabama in his first season.

LSU Tigers

2024 opponent win percentage: 56%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 9-3

LSU has a shot to contend for an SEC title if it can get its defense playing at a high level. That’s easier said than done. The Tigers looked to be one of the worst defenses in the conference last season, but the offense is potent enough that marginal improvement could make the team dangerous.

Ole Miss Rebels

2024 opponent win percentage: 55%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 11-1

Ole Miss broke through last season with a 10-win regular season and Peach Bowl win over Penn State. The Rebels’ transfer portal dominance paired with the return of key players make the team a difficult matchup in the SEC.

Auburn Tigers

2024 opponent win percentage: 55%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 8-4

Auburn has a favorable schedule in its upcoming season. It could pay dividends for head coach Hugh Freeze as his team looks to make a second year leap.

Texas Longhorns

2024 opponent win percentage: 54%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 11-1

What we thought might be a difficult schedule appears to be an easy one for Texas in its first SEC season. Michigan returns six starters while losing its quarterback, entire offensive line, three of four defensive linemen and head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Longhorns avoid facing five of the likely eight best teams in the conference in Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee. We’re including Texas as one of the top eight teams.

Tennessee Volunteers

2024 opponent win percentage: 52%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 10-2

It’s a bounce back year in Knoxville as Tennessee looks to begin the Nico Iamaleava era at quarterback. The Volunteers face Alabama and Georgia but manage to avoid enough of the other top teams to secure an easier schedule.

Missouri Tigers

2024 opponent win percentage: 44%

Longhorns Wire prediction: 10-2

Missouri somehow manages to have a schedule of opponents who combined for a losing record in 2023. Given what the team returns at quarterback in Brady Cook and a lethal receiving corps led by Luther Burden expect several wins for the Tigers next season.

Story originally appeared on Longhorns Wire