Ranking NFL's 12 teams to never win Super Bowl: Who's closest to notching first title?
Much as the NFL strives to highlight its year-over-year parity – and there is ample truth to it given the constant turnover of the playoff field and, generally, divisional standings as the draft and free agency conspire to keep the league's disparity at a relative minimum – it also seems like the bluebloods and ne'er-do-wells remain entrenched at the polarities of the pecking order.
Over the past 20 Super Bowls, there have only been three first-time winners: the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and, most recently, Philadelphia Eagles five years ago. During that span, the 17 other Lombardi Trophies were spread among 10 franchises all adding to their title count – the New England Patriots taking five while the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers each won a pair.
So when will we see a fresh champion, which shouldn't be overly groundbreaking given 12 of the NFL's 32 franchises still haven't won the Super Bowl? Let's rank their viability – least to most – looking ahead to Super Bowl 58 (asterisk denotes teams that have never played on Super Sunday):
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12. Tennessee Titans
Are they the worst team in the NFL? No, not yet anyway. But they ended the 2022 season with an AFC-high seven-game losing streak, unable to compete in the conference's worst division. And it seems like this organization's journey to rock bottom is ongoing ... meaning it may be just as likely Nashville will host its first Super Bowl in a new stadium that could be online by the 2026 season – perhaps about the same time the Titans will be relevant again? – as it is Music City's team will be competing for a crown.
11. Houston Texans*
Unlike their AFC South rivals (and forebears) in Tennessee, they might have bottomed out. They finally have a head coach (DeMeco Ryans) who seems like more than a substitute teacher. Still a lot of work to do before reaching a stage they and the Oilers have never ascended. But the Texans are at least positioned to sign quality free agents this year and, if nothing else, should at last draft the franchise quarterback who's been missing since Deshaun Watson's ignominious departure.
10. Arizona Cardinals
They (allegedly) have their (injured) franchise quarterback, the one who may not be ready to play at the start of the 2023 season and won exactly zero playoff games while surrounded by veteran talent during his rookie contract. Otherwise, Kyler Murray and rookie HC Jonathan Gannon – he's going to need a good while to measure up to three other firmly established coaches in the NFC West after the former Eagles coordinator's defense was shredded in Super Bowl 57 – look perfectly primed to measure up to last season's 4-13 squad.
9. Atlanta Falcons
They may not even be a quarterback away ... from competing for the NFC South title. But despite a nice collection of young players, a talented coach (Arthur Smith) and significant free-agent buying power this year, gonna take more time – and likely more than Desmond Ridder under center – for this team to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
8. Cleveland Browns*
They move into 2023 and beyond with Watson as their full-time quarterback ... along with the reality that he'll eat up a quarter of the salary cap by himself this season as his price tag severely restricts what the Browns can do in free agency and the draft – Houston owning Cleveland's first- and third-round selections this year. The Browns should be a solid team assuming Watson can recapture his pre-suspension Pro Bowl form, but the AFC North is usually a bloodbath and – these days – mere microcosm for the conference at large.
7. Carolina Panthers
New HC Frank Reich has Super Bowl experience as a quarterback (with Buffalo) and assistant (with Indianapolis as an intern and Philadelphia as offensive coordinator) and may need to do little more than find an effective passer to put an otherwise talented roster over the top ... though that sounds a lot like his recent tenure with the Colts. Still, in what remains a fairly bottom-heavy conference at this point, a quick turnaround is hardly out of the question.
6. Minnesota Vikings
The fact this team went 13-4 in 2022 is highly indicative of the state of the NFC. And any reference to QB Kirk Cousins' "window" seems silly given he's 1-3 in postseason (a wild-card win in 2019) going into the final year of his contract. But there's probably enough talent here to catch lightning in a bottle for one season ... at least in 2023.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
QB Justin Herbert has the physical tools to be the next Aaron Rodgers between the lines and, despite being beaten up in 2022, led the Bolts to postseason for the first time since 2018 (and third time in the past 13 seasons). This team also has a half-dozen or more elite players on its roster. But the Chargers' biggest obstacle moving forward is their AFC West affiliation given QB Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs may just be entering a dynastic window.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars*
Unlike the Chargers, they're set up to rule their division for the foreseeable future. Regularly playing postseason games at home is as good a formula as any for reaching your first Super Bowl. And given, ahem, QB Trevor Lawrence has won championships at every level save, ahem, the NFL ... it's only a matter of time, right? And certainly a championship celebration that traverses the Atlantic Ocean has to be a net win for the league, yeah?
3. Detroit Lions*
Again, playing in the NFC seems like an advantage in the near term, especially for a team that won eight of its final 10 games in 2022 and should only improve with a pair of picks in both the first and second round of this year's draft. And say what you want about QB Jared Goff, but he's coming off his best season since ... helping to guide the Los Angeles Rams to Super Bowl 53.
2. Buffalo Bills
A 2022 season that began with so much promise and hype, Buffalo widely hailed as Super Bowl darlings by prognosticators across the land, ended with OLB Von Miller – last year's key acquisition – on injured reserve and S Damar Hamlin recovering from a life-threatening cardiac episode. Thankfully, Hamlin's health has trended in a very positive direction, but there's no denying the emotional toll the Bills endured and the No. 1 playoff seed they lost control of after their game in Cincinnati was canceled. Glass half full, this team has been to the playoffs four times since QB Josh Allen was drafted in 2018 ... but, conversely, has only reached the AFC championship game once. Good as the Bills remain, red flags are starting to sprout warning this could wind up as another disappointing era of Buffalo football. Still, also enough green flags flapping here to suggest that Allen, Miller and Co. could just be a few positive breaks from winning this franchise's first ring since the 1965 AFL championship.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
They're only one year removed from a narrow loss in Super Bowl 56. Had their offensive line not been decimated at the end of this season – QB Joe Burrow was sacked five times in a 23-20 AFC championship game loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City, a game decided in the final seconds of regulation – Cincinnati might well have found its way back to Super Bowl 57. But as Burrow said of his title opportunities last month, "The window's my whole career." Little argument given the continued upward trajectory of his career and, like Lawrence, the manner in which he's vaulted good teams to elite ones in high school, college and the pros.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Bills, Bengals among NFL teams closest to ending Super Bowl drought
