QuikTrip 500 Proper Props

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Dan Beaver
·4 min read
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Creating a winning betting strategy in auto racing may necessitate a few Prop Bet selections each week. Picking an outright winner can be difficult in a sport where many factors are out of the athlete’s hands, such as engine failures, mistakes in the pits, or the team choosing the wrong strategy at the end of the race.

Aric Almirola (+6600 for the outright win) was one of our dark horse picks his week when he opened at +8000. It didn’t take long for oddsmakers to shave 1400 points off his total. We think that is still an acceptable Return on Investment (ROI) for a modest bet, but more importantly his long number drags his top-three odds to +1500. That is a much easier choice – especially if the team gambles successfully in the closing laps. Almirola does not yet have a top-five at Atlanta, but he scored one at Homestead-Miami Speedway last year.

The three most-favored drivers for the win also have positive odds for a top-three. Kevin Harvick (+575), Kyle Larson (+625), and Martin Truex Jr. (+675) have modest ROIs for the outright win, but with +160 for the No. 4 and +190 for the other two cars, there is a chance to supplement your coffer with a safer bet.


An even safer wager for a top-three this week belongs with Kyle Busch (+650). His odds of finishing in the top three are +300 and he has finished that well in three of his last seven Atlanta attempts, including a second in last year’s QuikTrip 500. He is not turning a lot of heads at the moment, but his third-place finish in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a step in the right direction.

We will admit that we might be overly enthusiastic by listing Alex Bowman (+3300) as one of our longshot options to finish in the top five this week. With outright odds of 33/1, we still believe that is a good bet and it should be supplemented by a modest wager for a top-three at +800 and another for a top 10 finish at +125.

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This week, Larson is listed as the favored Chevrolet driver with odds of +175 at PointsBet. He should wear the bowtie best. Chase Elliott is next on the list with a +250 and neither shows a good enough ROI for a substantial bet. On the other hand, William Byron at +700 could be worth some couch cushion money.

Harvick (+200) and Brad Keselowski (+275) are the top Ford choices.

Martin Truex Jr.(+170) and Denny Hamlin (+215) lead the Toyota brigade.

This week the Group matchups are all fairly tight with no higher odds than 3/1 in a four-man lineup. If you are confident in your winning choice, however, the lowest odds this week are +200 so you can double your money on a bet with only four variables.

Our Best Bets favorite this week, Larson (+250) could add a little bit to the kitty if he finishes ahead of Harvick (+225), Truex (+250) and Hamlin (+275).

One more interesting matchup this week comes in PointsBet’s Group E. Austin Cindric (+250) needs only to beat Cole Custer (+200), Erik Jones (+300), and Ryan Newman (+300) to be a successful wager – and with Penske power under the hood, we like those odds.

If Roush Fenway Racing can pull out an upset with either Newman or Chris Buescher, they can be signed for a +8000 bet to be the winning race team. With odds of +210, Joe Gibbs Racing narrowly beats out Hendrick Motorsports (+250) as the favorite team.

On another sportsbook, Truex (+400 & +600) is the favorite to win Stage 1 over Hamlin (+550) and is also favored to beat Harvick (+650) in Stage 2. Over the past two years, Truex has two stage wins. Harvick and Larson each have one.

If any driver in the field can sweep both stages and the race, that will be worth +650.

Ford (+155), Chevrolet (+170) and Toyota (+200) are fairly evenly matched to be the winning manufacturer.

2021 Stage Points-to-Date

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