Rest-of-season QB values: Russell Wilson leaves Shuffle Up Circle of Trust
Russell Wilson is known for his second-half miracle finishes. It’s not easy to attribute a reason, but he tends to take off in the second half of an NFL season. Consider how he’s ranked in the first half of his seasons (Games 1-8), compared to the second half of the year (Games 9-16):
• Opening Two Months: QB26, QB11, QB5, QB17, QB17, QB1.
• Finishing Two Months: QB2, QB8, QB2, QB2, QB5, QB1.
Last year doesn’t tell us much; Wilson was the top quarterback in both periods. But in his other five seasons, we’ve seen a notable jump. Perhaps it’s been because he’s healed up around this time. Maybe it’s been because the Seahawks have downshifted into desperation mode. Maybe it’s been some other factor. But I’m not betting on it to happen this year. Wilson currently ranks as the QB20 in cumulative points and QB21 in per-game value, and I’m not slotting him as an automatic fantasy starter going forward.
The fade-Wilson case isn’t hard to make. A chunk of it is tied to a distrust of new OC Brian Schottenheimer. Seattle’s receiving corps is average at best, especially when you consider Doug Baldwin isn’t 100 percent. There’s no difference-maker at tight end (for whatever you think of Jimmy Graham, he owned the goal line last year). Wilson hasn’t been able to get his running game going either; he’s scrambled for a paltry 10.3 yards per game (and no touchdowns), his least aggressive season by far.
It pains me to say this, but when you consider Wilson’s draft-day cost, he’s actually been one of the biggest wrong answers of the fantasy season.
Maybe Seattle reevaluated things during its bye week. Perhaps Wilson has been playing hurt but will be healthier in coming weeks. Maybe Baldwin will approach 100 percent effectiveness in the second half. Perhaps Schottenheimer will have some sort of epiphany, run some different stuff, and/or figure out the 2018 cheat codes.
It’s a leap of faith I’m not comfortable making. I see too many quarterbacks on the current board that I’m excited to play. I’ve had plenty of good times with Wilson in the past. We’ve won some big games and some championships. This year, I’ll try to do it with other guys. This is not the season to talk yourself into an offense you don’t trust — too many other offenses are putting up weekly pinball stats.
Below are your going-forward quarterback prices. Players at the same dollar amount are considered even, and don’t flip out over small differences in price. It’s more about the tiers and the neighborhood of the rank than anything else. And remember the golden rule, no one gains or loses fantasy value simply because they’re on your roster.
Mahomes leads elite group of QBs
$30 Patrick Mahomes: Setup couldn’t be more perfect.
$27 Aaron Rodgers: So long as he has Adams, rest of help might not matter.
$26 Drew Brees: The Taysom Hill stuff is annoying, but Brees nonetheless maintains a super floor.
Winston becoming a fantasy force
$24 Jameis Winston: Plays with his hair on fire, in a good and bad way; sneaky runner, too. Defense stinks.
$23 Cam Newton: Offense isn’t consistent in production or structure, but he’s a proven stat-grabber.
$22 Andrew Luck: Reich was a plus hire and the volume is delicious.
$21 Ben Roethlisberger
$21 Carson Wentz: Team struggling but it’s not really his fault; running game can’t carry this offense.
$21 Tom Brady: Offense has plenty of good pieces, but maybe not elite ones.
$20 Kirk Cousins: With that offensive line, passing volume is easy to bank on.
$20 Matt Ryan: A shame he loses Tampa Bay in Week 17, but Sarkisian rallied after a slow start.
Solid starting options
$18 Mitchell Trubisky: This year’s biggest gap between real-life value and fantasy juice.
$18 Jared Goff: Missing Kupp and hasn’t been piling up attempts of late; perhaps misguided as an auto-starter.
$18 Philip Rivers: MVP talk is all about efficiency, but most weeks Gordon is the man who eats first.
$18 Matthew Stafford: Throw out the Week 1 nightmare and everything is groovy (11 TDs, 1 INT, 112.8 rating).
$17 Russell Wilson
$17 Andy Dalton: Laid a Week 7 egg, but here comes Tampa and New Orleans.
$16 Deshaun Watson: Dinged up, not running of late, line hard to trust. Did some really pay for QB1 upside in August?
Bye-week fill-ins
$11 Joe Flacco: He’s under the league average at QB rating for the fourth straight year.
$10 C.J. Beathard
$10 Dak Prescott: Has three 300-yard passing games for his career, none this year; hard to do it this way in 2018.
$9 Eli Manning: NYG games should not be televised.
$9 Derek Carr: Given how bad Amari Cooper looked, perhaps they’ll get a spike without him.
$9 Baker Mayfield: He’s cracked the QB1 cutline just once in four starts; obviously help could be a lot better.
Only in special circumstances
$8 Alex Smith: No one is doing a thing in this passing game.
$7 Case Keenum: Kelly arrest and subsequent cut marks Keenum’s territory.
$6 Marcus Mariota: I was in his corner for several years, but I’ve run out of excuses.
$6 Sam Darnold: I’ll bet on his future, but it’s been an ordinary present.
Running down the rest
$2 *Ryan Tannehill
$2 Blake Bortles: Not even Europe is likely to save him now.
$2 Josh Rosen: Maybe OC Byron Leftwich isn’t ready, but anything is better than Mike McCoy.
$2 Brock Osweiler: Played well for two weeks, but at his height, difficult to repeat mechanics.
$1 Ryan Fitzpatrick
$1 *Josh Allen
$1 Cody Kessler
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