Quaker State 400 Proper Props

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Prop Bets

NASCAR is back to the schedule that has become the new norm at Atlanta Motor Speedway without practice or qualification. That adds a level of uncertainty to this week’s wagers.

With outright odds to win of +220 midday Saturday, Kyle Larson is the only driver in the field at minus odds for a top-three. Kyle Busch’s +775 drag his podium odds to +200 at PointsBet Sportsbook, which isn’t necessarily lucrative, but it does allow for a little wiggle room in case he has a slight bobble at the end of the race.

Chase Elliott (+230, top-three), Denny Hamlin (+250), Kevin Harvick (+250) and Martin Truex, Jr. (+250) also land in that range. After watching how well they performed in the the Kansas Speedway Buschy McBusch 400, there is a strong possibility veterans will have a strong day on Sunday.


Plus odds for top-10s begin with outright-to-win odds of about +3000. Kurt Busch (+105, top-10) is the first driver to have a positive Return on Investment for that finish, but at basically even money and an erratic season, he is not a good value. Instead, scroll down just a little and you will find several drivers worthy of a unit or two.

The Richard Childress Racing drivers Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon have been hovering around the top-10 mark for most of the year on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. At +155 for the top-10, Dillon is more highly favored of the two and his overall record this season is better. He enters the weekend with three straight top-10s and a worst of 12th in 2021. His average finish on this track type of 9.2 gives him a better than .500 chance of scoring another top-10.

Intangibly, Reddick (+190, top-10) seems to be a better value, however. His second-place finish in the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway really catches the handicapper’s eye because it was so darned close to locking him into the playoffs. He seemed to struggle at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Atlanta 1, but with back-to-back top-10s at Kansas and Charlotte Motor Speedway, he is worthy of a modest wager.

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There are several other drivers with enough top-15s to their credit to make them noteworthy. Dating back to a 16th-place finish at Kansas last fall, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+280, top-10) has six results between 11th and 16th. He is poised to strike, but since he has not yet done so in 2021, his top-10 odds are close to 3/1. In order to make any serious money, a bettor has to ride the leading edge of a wave. That’s why they call this gambling.

Daniel Suarez (+320, top-10) is another driver who simply needs a small, favorable turn of events to get into the top 10. He has four results of 11th through 17th in five races on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year. The team is better than their results indicate and it’s just a matter of time before they have a breakout race.

Earlier this week, NBC analyst Parker Kligerman extolled the virtues of Harvick as we chatted about the outright odds to win for several drivers. A rising tide elevates everyone in the harbor and if that happens, this could be a good week to put a few shekels on Chase Briscoe (+600, top-10) or Cole Custer (+500).

In the manufacturer grouping this week, Harvick tops the Ford contingent at +230. Team Penske is struggling and for that reason all three of their drivers are listed at 3/1 or greater. Ryan Blaney (+300, top Ford) won this spring race while Brad Keselowski (+350) and Joey Logano (+400) are in strong enough equipment to surprise the field.

If you think the home state crowd will have an effect on Chase Elliott, he can be signed at +450 to be the top Chevrolet. Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron (+650, top Chevrolet) and Alex Bowman (+850) also have solid ROIs. In the most recent 1.5-mile race at Charlotte, they swept the top five so any of them are capable of winning.

The Toyota group is more evenly distributed with Kyle Busch at +155, Denny Hamlin +220, and Truex +220.

In head-to-head matchups, there is a little money to be made if Christopher Bell (+150) can beat Kurt Busch (-140). Bell is in stronger equipment and has some momentum from Road America.

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