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QBs are so good in 2018 — so why should you still trade for one of these two passers?

Yahoo Sports Fantasy Staff
Jameis Winston returned to throw four touchdowns with the Bucs in Week 6. Should you be trying to trade for him? (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Jameis Winston returned to throw four touchdowns with the Bucs in Week 6. Should you be trying to trade for him? (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

By Matt Kelley, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports

The argument against the New York Giants drafting generational running back prospect Saquon Barkley was simple: Running backs don’t matter. Most objective NFL Draft observers agree that the suddenly sentimental Giants blundered by selecting a hyper-talented player at a relatively disposable position, rather than an investing in a franchise quarterback with lower odds of hitting. Dave Gettleman’s decision to select Barkley over Sam Darnold will likely echo in New York for many years. The thing is…

Quarterbacks don’t matter (but their Fantasy points do)

While running back upgrades offer marginal value to NFL franchises — sorry Le’Veon Bell — the position is paramount in the opposite world of fantasy football. Now far removed from the days of even thinking of taking a quarterback in Round 1, 2018 will counterintuitively, simultaneously go down as the most prolific year for fantasy quarterbacks and the year quarterbacks stopped mattering in fantasy football. How is this possible?

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1. Positional Depth

The quarterback position is as deep as it has ever been. When the fantasy QB16 (Tom Brady) is scoring close to 20 fantasy points per game, most of the marginal value of starting Quarterback X over Quarterback Y on any given week vanishes.

2. Play-Calling

NFL offensive coordinators are calling more pass plays than ever before. As offensive efficiency increases, game-scores rise. Higher game scores necessarily increase the number of fantasy relevant quarterbacks in the player pool. Furthermore, the increase in passing touchdowns diminishes the Konami Code super powers of numerous mobile quarterbacks. With league-wide scoring rising and quarterback rushing yards falling, fantasy QB1s from seasons past like Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Alex Smith are now firmly entrenched in the QB2 tier (No. 13-24).

Russell Wilson — once a consistently elite source of fantasy points — has barely been able to replicate past successes this year. (Action Images via Reuters/Paul Childs)
Russell Wilson — once a consistently elite source of fantasy points — has barely been able to replicate past successes this year. (Action Images via Reuters/Paul Childs)

3. New Rules

Quarterbacks and receivers are more protected from pressure and vicious hits than ever before. Lower hurry rates and wider target windows intuitively help less mobile quarterbacks on the fantasy fringes (think Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco) more than the league’s magicians such as Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

4. Streaming Tactics

The proliferation of Late Round Quarterback Strategy, popularized by JJ Zachariason, helped illuminate why drafting quarterbacks in the early rounds is a fool’s errand. The opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback over a productive skill position player in the early rounds of fantasy drafts is too high to justify.

If quarterback doesn’t matter, why even write about it? Because quarterback fantasy points DO matter every week. While the position itself has rightfully become an afterthought on draft day, because quarterbacks are scoring more fantasy points than ever, targeting QBs with maximum upside every week is critical. Whether streaming Mitchell Trubisky from the league free-agent pool in Week 6 or activating Jameis Winston from the bench, the quarterback that you ultimately start every week matters. Indeed, playing Winston on Sunday won a lot of matchups for fantasy gamers and will be the reason many teams make the fantasy playoffs.

How do we find the next Winston? Pretty cut-and-dry actually…

Supporting Cast Matters: Trade for Jameis Winston

Buccaneers quarterbacks have led all players in weekly fantasy points multiple times this season. Tampa’s supporting cast is one of the best in the NFL, evidenced by a +23.3 Supporting Cast Efficiency Rating on PlayerProfiler.com, which ranks No. 1 among NFL offenses. Looking deeper, Buccaneers receivers were exceptionally efficient with journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, bolstered by a 75.7-percent Contested Catch Conversion Rate — No. 3 in the NFL this season.

Now is the time to trade for Winston in fantasy leagues, and in a post-fantasy quarterback world, a godfather offer is not required. For example, Tom Brady + Tevin Coleman for Jameis Winston + Robert Woods should be auto-accepted with Devonta Freeman out for the season (just don’t tell your league-mate that Ito Smith may be sliding into Freeman’s role).

Schedule Strength Matters: Trade for Cam Newton

Matt Ryan was the best late-round quarterback of the 2018 fantasy draft season. Ryan enjoyed the most QB-friendly schedule through the first seven weeks, which featured numerous shootouts against below average pass defenses. While Marcus Mariota was trudging through Jacksonville and Baltimore, Ryan was charging through Tampa Bay and New Orleans on a chariot of fantasy points.

Cam Newton is shaping up to be the Matt Ryan of the second half of the NFL season, and like Winston, Newton’s supporting cast is better than advertised. With positive efficiency ratings across the board, Devin Funchess may be the most underrated WR in the league.

Devin Funchess is just one of a plethora of weapons emerging this season for Cam Newton. (AP Photo/Jason E. Miczek)
Devin Funchess is just one of a plethora of weapons emerging this season for Cam Newton. (AP Photo/Jason E. Miczek)

D.J. Moore is the best wide receiver prospect since Amari Cooper and is sure to break out in the weeks ahead. Christian McCaffrey is widely regarding as the NFL’s best satellite back, and passing game rock Greg Olsen returned from an early season foot injury in Week 6.

Based on Seasonal QB Rankings on PlayerProfiler.com, Cam Newton’s upcoming opponents allow +2.29 (No. 3) fantasy points per game above league average. Looking ahead, the Panthers’ second half schedule looks delightful:

Week 9 – Buccaneers

Week 10 – Steelers

Week 11 – Lions

Week 12 – Seahawks

Week 13 – Buccaneers

Week 14 – Browns

Week 15 – Saints (Fantasy Playoffs)

Week 16 – Falcons (Fantasy Playoffs)

Holy shootouts, Batman! With a long track record of consistent QB1 production, an underrated supporting cast and the best possible schedule moving forward, Newton should be the favorite to lead all quarterbacks in fantasy points in the second half.

Want to compete with opponents rolling with Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees in the fantasy playoffs? Trade Kirk Cousins + James White for Cam Newton + Josh Gordon before your league mate realizes Gordon is Brady’s new No. 1 wide receiver.

You’re welcome.

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