Puka Nacua is putting together a rookie season for the ages. He’s only four catches and 29 yards away from setting single-season records for the most receptions and receiving yards by a rookie, already eclipsing 100 receptions and 1,400 yards with the Rams this year.
In just about any other season, he’d be the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, that isn’t the case in 2023 because C.J. Stroud is having himself a terrific first season in the NFL, too. Entering the final week of the regular season, it’s Stroud who’s the overwhelming favorite to win the award and be crowned the top offensive rookie.
According to BetMGM, Stroud is -1000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nacua is second at +450, followed by a group of long shots with odds of +15000 or worse. Essentially, it’s a two-man race, but Nacua might not have much of a chance even if he breaks both rookie records.
At -1000, Stroud has an implied probability of 90.9% to win the award. Nacua has an 18.2% chance, which is shockingly low given the season he’s had.
Stroud plays the Colts on Saturday night and the Rams face the 49ers in a game that neither team needs to win, so it’s possible Los Angeles could even rest Nacua for part of the season finale if/when he breaks the records.