Projecting the Patriots’ defensive starters for 2021
After leading the league in both points per game and yards allowed in 2019, the New Patriots defense took an alarming step back in 2020, most notably allowing 131.4 yards rushing per game (26th in the NFL).
The decline in production can be explained, of course.
The Patriots’ league-leading eight opt-outs (Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Beau Allen, etc.) crippled the unit, to a degree. And the inept offensive production put even more pressure on a group that was asked to do too much.
In 2020, Certain offenses (Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Bills) put a beatdown on a proud defense that should be much improved in 2021.
Several reinforcements were added via free agency and the draft this offseason, and the return of Hightower in the middle of the field should also come a long way.
Here are our projections for the Patriots’ defense, beginning with a quick, analytical look back on the 2020 season.
2020 Trends: Personnel/Formations usage
(Big or Traditional) Nickel 2-4-5 -- 35% 3-4 -- 19.5% Big Dime (2-3-6 or 1-4-6) -- 15.6% Quarter -- 14.4% (Big or Traditional) Nickel 3-3-5 -- 8.1% Traditional 4-3 -- 4 snaps (listed for context) The numbers here were charted and calculated weekly throughout the season as part of our defensive film reviews. As always, Bill Belichick's defense used an arsenal of different formations and personnel groupings to tackle the many different types of offenses they faced last season. Listed above are the five most common looks and their slim usage of snaps in a 4-3 defense, for added context. Against the Broncos, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, and Jets (twice), New England played a ton of 3-4 snaps in an attempt to stop those run-heavy attacks. Versus the AFC's two finalists, the Chiefs and Bills (Week 8 matchup), the Patriots spent the majority of those games in various Big Dime looks in an attempt to corral those spread offenses. In most other matchups, the Patriots predominantly used a 3-4-principled, Nickel 2-4-5 look as their base, which is also what they used in 2019 after altering the defense in the offseason and training camp. Considering their current personnel after offseason additions, it doesn't appear that the Patriots will be veering away from that anytime soon, so we decided to base our projected starters off of a 2-4-5 look. (It was tough distinguishing personnel (Nickel, Dime, etc.) this season, as opposed to formation/fronts (2-4-5, etc.), because newcomer Adrian Phillips was really utilized as a pure off-ball linebacker more than a box safety, so we essentially treated him as such.)
Defensive Line
Starters: NT/DT -- Devin Godchaux DT/DE -- Lawrence Guy Depth/Sub players: Deatrich Wise Jr. Henry Anderson Christian Barmore Montravious Adams Byron Cowart Carl Davis Up front, Lawrence Guy returns as a versatile defensive lineman with attributes of both a 4-3-style defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end. Devin Godchaux (6-foot-3, 311 pounds) was plucked from division rival Miami to fill the beefy nose tackle role once occupied by Danny Shelton in 2019, and filled with an assortment of underwhelming options in 2020 after Beau Allen failed to get on the field. Henry Anderson and Deatrich Wise Jr. should battle for the other 3-4 defensive end spot and for playing time on early-down Nickel looks up front. Wise Jr., who is a natural fit in a 4-3 defense, has done a good job of re-modeling his game to fit the Patriots needs, and that's most likely why he was rewarded with a new contract this offseason. Rookie second-round pick Christian Barmore will begin his career as the Patriots' best interior rusher, and should see time early and often as a replacement for Adam Butler on passing downs. The goal is for him to eventually be a three-down player in future seasons. This is not a 53-man roster projection, so there's no telling if Montravious Adams, Byron Cowart or Carl Davis will actually make the roster. Cowart played 41.7 percent of Patriots defensive snaps in 2020, but will likely be no more than a depth piece in 2021 if retained. Adams, who came over from Green Bay, likely has the inside track on a roster spot over Cowart as a depth option as a 3-4 defensive end/Nickel 2-4-5 defensive tackle type. Davis, 29, played well when he was on the field for New England in 2020. He'll have an uphill battle in an attempt to make the team, but if he does, he'd serve as a backup nose tackle to Godchaux.
EDGE
Starters: EDGE (stand-up) -- Matthew Judon EDGE (stand-up) -- Kyle Van Noy Depth/Sub players: Josh Uche Chase Winovich Ronnie Perkins Anfernee Jennings The return of Kyle Van Noy and the big contract awarded to Matthew Judon speak volumes to Belichick's view of the EDGE position last season. John Simon (70 percent of snaps), Chase Winovich (59 percent) and Shilique Calhoun (25.5 percent) were the three most-used at this position last season. Now, Calhoun would be lucky to make the team while Simon, a solid strong-side defender in 2019 who was asked to do too much in 2020, is almost certainly not returning. Judon and Van Noy should dramatically help in both pass-rushing and setting the edge in run defense, while Winovich will likely return to his role as a situational pass rusher. Uche projects as both an EDGE and off-ball linebacker, and the potential for him to be used as Jamie Collins was in 2019 is still a possibility. In Big Dime 1-4-6 looks, Judon, Van Noy, Uche and Winovich could all be on the field with rookie defensive tackle Barmore as the lone, hand-in-the-dirt defensive lineman. Van Noy and Uche's versatility as stand-up interior pass rushers would nicely compliment Judon and Winovich on the edge in such looks. Elsewhere, rookie third-round pick Ronnie Perkins will likely take somewhat of a redshirt year to learn behind the stacked depth chart at his position. And Anfernee Jennings, who should continue to develop as both an off-the-ball backer and run-stuffing EDGE, will likely provide depth.
Linebackers
Starters: LB -- Dont'a Hightower LB -- Adrian Phillips/Josh Uche Depth/Sub players: Raekwon McMillan Ja'Whaun Bentley Harvey Langi Anfernee Jennings Terez Hall One of the biggest additions for the 2021 Patriots will be the return of linebacker Dont'a Hightower after he opted out of last season due to COVID-19. In Hightower's absensce, Ja'Whaun Bentley played admirably at times, but ultimately was exposed as a three-down linebacker in outside runs and pass coverage. Bentley's roster spot is far from secure in 2021 after the addition of Raekwon McMillan and the return of Harvey Langi as possible off-ball options next to the returning Hightower. It's possible Bentley, McMillan, Langi and Terez Hall will be battling for two roster spots, seeing as the Patriots have more versatile off-ball linebacker options in Uche and Adrian Phillips. Despite his tremendous bend on the edge as a rusher, we already discussed Uche's potential in a Jamie Collins-type role in the section above. After beefing up the front seven this offseason, there's a chance the Patriots find a different role for Phillips, such as a swiss army knife defensive back instead of an undersized linebacker. But with an improved front seven to help take care of opposing blockers, Phillips' lack of size may not be such an issue for New England's run defense in 2021.
Defensive Back
Starters: CB1 -- Stephon Gilmore CB2 -- J.C. Jackson Slot CB/S -- Jonathan Jones/Jalen Mills S -- Devin McCourty S -- Kyle Dugger Depth/Sub players: Adrian Phillips Joejuan Williams Myles Bryant Joshuah Bledsoe Michael Jackson Considering Jason McCourty just signed with the Dolphins, it appears the Patriots will eventually figure out Stephon Gilmore's contract situation so he can once again pair with J.C. Jackson as one of the league's best perimeter cornerback tandems. Unless someone else is brought in, Joejuan Williams projects as the top backup option on the boundary, with the lengthy Michael Jackson (6-foot-1, 210 pounds) having an outside shot of making the roster as another press-coverage player on the outside. Jonathan Jones returns as the Patriots top slot cornerback and as a rotational deep safety, but he has competition with the versatile Jalen Mills coming in from Philadelphia. Mills, a cornerback-turned-safety, spent time as a box safety (329 snaps), free safety (236), boundary cornerback (227) and slot defender (182) in 2020 for the Eagles, according to PFF. Although Mills and Jones aren't exactly the same player, it's possible they will be directly battling for playing time in 2021. Kyle Dugger's role as the team's strong safety is safe. Expect Dugger to play in man coverage versus tight ends, as a box safety, as a pure linebacker, and as a deep safety in the Patriots defense. The do-it-all defender is too versatile to keep in one assignment for too long. This is a big year for him. Devin McCourty will return as a free safety in some looks and as a middle-of-the-field robber or tight end-man coverage defender in others. McCourty plays less pure free safety than many think. In three-safety personnel, Mills or Jones may see a ton of snaps as a deep safety in Cover 1 looks, while McCourty settles underneath to cut off crossers (think: yellow zone in EA's Madden video game) or man-covers athletic tight ends. Myles Bryant should serve as a depth piece to both Jones and Mills, and maybe even battle the two for the Duron Harmon-role as a deep safety. Bryant, an undrafted rookie free agent in 2020, often saw the field last season in Quarter personnel. If he makes the roster, rookie sixth-round pick Joshuah Bledsoe will likely learn a variety of roles on the bench, while also playing on special teams. In terms of coverage schemes, the Patriots predominantly like to go single high and mostly run Cover 1 or Cover 3, but they ran a good deal of Cover 2 and Cover 4 (quarters) at times last season. They'll likely stick to their affinity to run man coverage and single-high in 2021, as well, unless the scheme of an opponent forces them to adjust.
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