If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for MNF, including the six detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
Alexander Mattison OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Dalvin Cook OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards (-106) — BetMGM Sportsbook
Removing the Week 5 game that saw him go down with an injury, Cook has topped this rushing prop in four of his past five games. He has doubled the prop in three of those five outings. Cook is averaging 122.6 rushing yards per game and just over 20 carries per game. If he didn't have four runs of 35 yards or more, Cook's number of carries would also be significantly higher. He is one of the best backs in the league and sees one of the largest roles on a weekly basis.
Betting Mattison's prop hedges any chance that Cook gets hurt but it can also hit on the same night Cook's OVER hits. He has played six games with a healthy Cook this year. In those games, Mattison is averaging 6.5 carries for 30.7 yards. Minnesota is currently third in the NFL in run percentage with 49% of their plays resulting in a carry. However, even that doesn't show just how run-heavy they want to be. When tied or leading, the Vikings run on 58% of their plays. If Vegas is right and they win this game, both Cook and Mattison can get there.
Kyle Rudolph UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota has chosen to largely use Rudolph as a blocker this year. He is averaging 17.3 routes run to 23.4 blocking snaps per game. The loss of Irv Smith Jr. could help Rudolph clear his prop but those targets could also be spread to the other receivers or turn into rushes. Rudolph has cleared this prop twice in eight contests and is only averaging 21.9 receiving yards per game. Even a slight bump from Smith's absence shouldn't deter bettors from taking the under.
Nick Foles UNDER 270.5 Passing Yards (-115) — William Hill Sportsbook
Foles has only topped this prop twice all season. The reason it has been set this high may be that both of those games have come in the past two weeks. Before his recent performances, Foles would have been drawing dead to hit this mark. Despite passing at the highest rate in the league, Foles still isn't hitting crazy yardage totals. This is because he's averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and his team plays slow. The Bears are 26th in seconds per play in neutral situations. Minnesota is 28th in that metric so we can expect a low-volume game from both sides. If Foles isn't going to be passing 40 or more times in this game, his under shows considerable value.
Dalvin Cook OVER 2.5 Receptions (+100) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Dalvin Cook OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — William Hill Sportsbook
When looking for OVER props to bet, keep going back to Cook. He has played in two games that were decided by fewer than six points and has five targets in each of those games. The matches when his team either loses or wins by a lot are that he lacks as a pass-catcher. Luckily for Cook, his team is favored by a modest, 3.5 points versus the Bears. At even money, his receptions prop is worth a bet. His receiving yardage prop is an easy bet even with a bit of juice. Cook has topped 16 yards in four of his past five games and his lowest mark over that span is 16 yards. The only scenario that would eliminate him from hitting the over would be Minnesota crushing the Bears early with Cook catching no passes. That's not out of the range of outcomes but it is unlikely enough to happen that his receiving yardage total is worth betting as well.
Last Week: 3-2, +.7 Units
Season: 21-15, +4.3 Units