Primetime Props: Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Yahoo Betting Analyst Ariel Epstein joins Fantasy Football Live to offer a pair of player propositions as the Bills host the Packers in week 8.
Video Transcript
ANDY SERWER: Welcome back to the Sportsbook. I am here once again with Ariel Epstein, the Prop Queen. And we are going to talk the prime time games in week eight. Ariel's got no time for this Halloween nonsense. She's got-- she's got money to make for the people. Let's start with Buffalo--
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I hate Halloween.
ANDY SERWER: --and Green Bay.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Hate it!
ANDY SERWER: That's a take. That's a spicy take. So Ariel-- Ariel starts us right off with the underwear on Halloween, that's shocking.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Yep.
ANDY SERWER: Talk to me, however--
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Over, under, and half a costume, under.
ANDY SERWER: Candy corn, no? In or out on candy corn?
ARIEL EPSTEIN: No. Go get-- the only thing about Halloween that helps anybody is that it's super cheap candy on Tuesday. So go have fun.
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ANDY SERWER: At least you found something. Let's start with Dawson Knox in this matchup against Green Bay. I'm starting him in like four leagues. And you think that's a terrible idea.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: You're not going to like this. I like the under on Dawson Knox's receiving yards. Green Bay has been one of the defenses to really limit tight ends. They allow the second least receiving yards per game to the position at just over 28 yards per game. Knox did go over against Baltimore, who's a top 10 defense against the position. However, against the Rams, 1 catch for 5 yards.
There have been multiple tight ends to go under 31 and 1/2 receiving yards against Green Bay in addition to Knox last season going under this number in three out of the four games where he faced a defense top 10 against the position. So I like the under of 31 and 1/2 receiving yards for Knox.
ANDY SERWER: All right, it's fine. I'll give you the yards. I just-- I just really need a touchdown. If I can just get a touchdown--
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Hey, get a touchdown now.
ANDY SERWER: --it's fine.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: 1-yard touchdown.
ANDY SERWER: Yeah, and then we can both be happy.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: [LAUGHS]
ANDY SERWER: Talk to me-- talk to me about Aaron Jones because Aaron Jones has obviously been great lately. But he is facing one of the league's best run defenses. And you like the under on the rushing yard prop.
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ARIEL EPSTEIN: It's another under for the Packers running back Aaron Jones and his rushing yards. I saw it at 47 and 1/2. You mentioned it, Buffalo, they have allowed the least rushing yards per game to running backs this year. It's only one game this season that Jones did face a defense that's top 10 against running backs, and it was Minnesota.
He had 5 carries for 49 yards. Now, yeah, that's over this. However, this Buffalo defense is even better than Minnesota is against the run. Looking at running backs that faced Buffalo this year, Darrell Henderson had a 47-yard game. Even Derrick Henry, only 13 carries for 25 yards.
All these other running backs that I'm looking at who have faced this team have gone under 47 and 1/2 rushing yards. And last year, Jones also only had a couple of games where he did have a good performance against top defenses. But otherwise, the majority of the Jones games against top rush defenses, he ended up going under 47 and 1/2. Now you're going to be splitting carries with AJ Dillon also. I like the under here for Jones.
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