If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have skin in the game for a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for TNF, including the six detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
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Todd Gurley OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (+102) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Todd Gurley OVER 2.5 Receptions (+100) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Todd Gurley OVER 15.5 Fantasy Points (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Gurley has quietly experienced a role change of late, seeing an increased 10.7% target share (and 12 targets overall) in Atlanta’s last three games and, most recently, a season-high 83% of the Falcons’ backfield touches. He ran a middling 17.5 routes per game (on 39% of dropbacks) through the team's first four contests, but Gurley’s receiving-game usage in his last three (22.3 per game, 50.7%) is what has propelled him to at least 19 receiving yards in each of those bouts. It only helps that the Panthers have laid down for the league’s most receptions (56) permitted to opposing running backs this year.
Ian Thomas OVER 11 Receiving Yards (+105) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Carolina concertedly pivoted to a season-high rate of 12 personnel (26%) in the team’s last matchup against the Falcons, allowing Thomas to finish with his highest target share (5, 13.8%) to date. This is a bet that the Panthers’ gameplan reverts to that approach because of its previous success and/or Seth Roberts’ mid-week release (which logically leaves fewer options to play at wideout, and thus more targets for Thomas).
Calvin Ridley First Touchdown Scorer (+1100) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Hat tip to my internet friend Drew Dinsick for calling attention to this one. I should also note that I typically wager roughly 20-30% of my normal Unit on First Touchdown props (and will again be doing so here) since the probabilities are outlandish. Having said that, Ridley jumps off the page tonight because he quietly leads the league in both red zone (11) and end zone (10) targets, scoring at least one touchdown in every game Julio Jones has been healthy for this season. For those craving even more action, Ridley, who’s averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game, is currently -112 at PointsBet to score over 17.5 fantasy points.
Last Week: 1-2, -0.1 Units
Season: 9-13, +5 Units