If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have skin in the game for a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for TNF, including the six detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
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Jonnu Smith OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
This is admittedly a risky one since the Colts have limited enemy tight ends to the league’s second-lowest yards per attempt (5.2) through the air. But Smith is more than capable of eclipsing this number on inefficient targets since he’s averaged the second-most yards after contact per catch (6.9) at his position. Tennessee also opted for a season-high rate of two-tight end sets (36%, 20 plays) without Adam Humphries (concussion, out) last week, allowing Smith to run a route on a season-high 80% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks.
Ryan Tannehill OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards (-125) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Simply put, Tannehill is averaging 13.1 rushing yards per game and has exceeded this number in 15-of-23 starts dating back to last year. The line in this game surging in favor of the Colts (+2.5 to -1) entails Tannehill having the ball in his hands more.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-125) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Philip Rivers has targeted his running backs room at the league’s seventh-highest rate. Taylor has only seen two targets in each of Indianapolis’ last two games, but was forced 3 and 4 in the two contests prior. He need only haul in one more reception than his average (2) the past two weeks in order to notch this number within three quarters.
Trey Burton OVER 2.5 Receptions (-124) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Burton has averaged 4.8 targets since being activated from injured reserve and now suits up without Jack Doyle (concussion) available in two-tight end sets. Burton out-targeted Mo Alie-Cox 4-3 last Sunday but only hauled in one of his four opportunities. Fortunately, he should be afforded more without Doyle in this matchup.
Last Week: 2-1, +2.3 Units
Season: 12-18, +4.6 Units