If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for MNF, including the five detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
David Montgomery OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
The Bears lost Tarik Cohen to a torn ACL in Week 3. Since that game, Montgomery is averaging 33 receiving snaps, 6.3 targets, and 33 receiving yards. He has taken over a large portion of the Cohen role and there are no signs of that slowing anytime soon. The Bears are six-point underdogs and have already been one of the most pass-heavy teams despite winning all but one game. Their 64% passing rate is fourth in the league. Lastly, the Rams have given up 50.8 receiving yards per game to running backs, sixth-most in the NFL. Montgomery should keep rolling as a receiver and pass this prop with ease.
Jared Goff OVER 250.5 Passing Yards (+116) — DraftKings Sportsbook
The game environment is less than ideal for betting Goff overs but this is a number he's routinely passed in 2020. He's topped 250 passing yards in four of six games and is averaging 261.7 yards per game. Unsurprisingly, the two times Goff went under this prop were the two worst offensive performances by the Rams. They scored 17 and 16 points in those games. The Rams have an implied team total of 25.25 points this week. As long as their offense doesn't collapse, Goff should be able to hit this line at plus money.
Anthony Miller UNDER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
The Bears have relegated Miller strictly to a No. 3 receiver role because of the emergence of Darnell Mooney. Miller has played on 15 fewer receiving snaps than Mooney over the past three weeks and is being targeted less frequently than Mooney as well. His 11% target share trails Mooney and three other Chicago players. Miller has topped 28 receiving yards twice this year and both came in the first three weeks.
Jimmy Graham OVER 2.5 Receptions (-155) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Jimmy Graham OVER 28.5 Receptions (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Graham is having a late-career resurgence in Chicago. He entered Week 7 with 36 targets, fifth among tight ends. His 22 catches and four scores were both top-10 as well. Graham has caught at least three passes in every game but one this year and has seen his numbers increase under Nick Foles. In the four games that Foles has played in, Graham is averaging 4.5 catches for 40 yards. He's topped three catches and 28 yards in all four games. Graham is also second on the Bears with 200 routes run, only 34 behind Allen Robinson. Both props on Graham are worth paying the juice because of his likelihood of hitting them.
Last Week: 2-3, -1.2 Units
Season: 12-9, +2.5 Units