MATT HARMON: It's time to see who we think will be fantasy legends for week 17, presented by the all new, 2023 Toyota Sequoia. Each week, we're picking a handful of players who are match-up proof and ready to deliver an epic fantasy performance. Dalton, let's get it started with you, man.
DALTON DEL DON: Give me Tyler Allgeier. He had a career-high in rush attempts and catches last week. Allgeier is averaging 18 carries over the last two games since Caleb Huntley went down. Cordarrelle Patterson saw his smallest snap share of the season last week when Allgeier also saw his most targets ever in Desmond Ritter's second start. So maybe that'll be a thing, actually, getting some receiving value, as well. Over the last five weeks, the Falcons have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the league.
Allgeier has more carries inside the 5 this year than Austin Ekeler and Kenneth Walker. And he's also faced nothing but top 15 run defenses since week 11. Now, he gets an Arizona one that's allowed the sixth most fantasy points to a running back. They rank bottom five in run defense DVOA. Allgeier has gotten 5.7 yards per carry at home this season where the Falcons are 4 point favorites this week against a struggling Cardinals team, likely moving on from their head coach soon. Allgeier is set for a legendary fantasy performance this week.
MATT HARMON: I like that call. I think it's a little under the radar how strong Tyler Allgeier is finishing the season right now. I'll stick with the rookie running back, guy who's a bit more well known in Brian Robinson, but who's not coming off the same type of great performance that Allgeier is coming off. Against your 49ers, Brian Robinson averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. However, the three games prior to that, he was up at 5.9. I think we see him back up towards that range this week, mostly because of the match-up.
I mean, the Browns, they've been a fantastic match-up for running backs all year for, basically, the jump of the season, it was like, you can run all over this team, OK? And it's crazy because it's not gotten any better, not even a slight bit. They're averaging 4.9 yards per carry allowed since week 12 alone, Dalton. This is a problem the Browns have not been able to fix. I think Washington gets their run game going this week. Antonio Gibson is a little bit banged up, so that helps Brian Robinson as well.
You know, I don't know that the Carson Wentz return to the starting lineup, I don't that really does that much to Brian Robinson's outlook. He just got such a clean match-up here. Even if he gave you a dud, and I know he gave me a dud in several performances last week. Even if he gave you that dud, I think you can trust him for a legendary performance here in week 17.
DALTON DEL DON: Like the Robinson call. I used him as one of my conviction picks this week. He had 58 rushing yards last week, trying to become the first running back to reach 60 against the 49ers with like 12 minutes left, but then didn't really get another carry because the lopsided score. He'll get that mark and then some this week. My second pick is Justin Fields in Detroit. He had been at least a top eight fantasy QB in eight straight games before last week when weather and the Bills slowed him down.
It would be nice if Chicago had better receivers, but Fields is a fantasy monster regardless, despite last week's quiet performance and missing a game earlier, Fields has the third most rushing yards ever by a quarterback. He's going to be trying to break that record over the final two games. This week, he gets to play indoors in the Coors Field of the NFL, Harmon. Detroit is getting the second most yards per play at home, while allowing the most yards per play at home.
Oh, and Chicago is also ceding the second most yards per play on the road this season, so it's such a nice set up. Match-up has the highest over-under on the slate. Lions defense-- the Lions defense is allowing the most YPA, the most fantasy points, and the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. So Fields is going to deliver an epic fantasy performance in your championship.
MATT HARMON: We both clearly have potential Jalen Hurts absent teams on the mind here because I'm also going to go with the quarterback here. I'm going to go with Mike White, who's back in the starting lineup for the New York Jets. Mike White is averaging 43 pass attempts per game in his three starts this year. That includes a game in Buffalo where we know he was in and out with the rib injury that eventually cost him a couple of contest-- a couple of contests.
If you actually extrapolate the non Zach Wilson games for the New York Jets, they're on pace to, like-- well, they're well over shattering 700 pass attempts on the season, which is pretty crazy, considering how conservative this team goes, how run first this team goes when they have their number two overall pick at quarterback back there, but, man, Mike White has clearly been the best of the four quarterbacks that New York has rolled out this year. Seattle, their defense is definitely exploitable. We know that.
Obviously, they're a bit more of a run funnel team than a pass funnel team, but I still think you can get them through the air, and what I think is really encouraging for Mike White is actually the performance of the Seahawks offense of late. Since week 10, Geno Smith ranks 21st in EPA per drop back. He was 28th last week against the Chiefs in a game without Tyler Lockett. Lockett might miss this game as well. That's just a huge X-factor.
So if the Jets offense being able to probably stay in positive game script, I think that's better news for Mike White and the potential lack of turnovers, stuff like that. Keep the train on the tracks for Mike White. I think you can count on a nice, solid floor performance from a fantasy passing standpoint, but also, I think he definitely has a three touchdown ceiling in this game as well. So you can chase him for either one of those two outcomes.
All right, Dalton, thanks so much. Those are all good picks. All epic, legendary picks, I might add. The all new 2023 Toyota Sequoia inspires drivers to live legendary. Check out the fully redesigned SUV at your local dealer, or learn more at Toyota.com.