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Preview and Predictions: Michigan football vs. Ohio State

11-0 Michigan will march into Columbus on Saturday to take on the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. It’s the first time both teams are ranked in the top five and undefeated since 2006 when Ohio State beat Michigan in Columbus, 42-39.

Ohio State has dominated this era of football, but Michigan holds the all-time series record against its rival. The Wolverines lead the series, 59-52-6. Michigan is currently on a one-game win streak against Ohio State after the maize and blue won last year in Ann Arbor, 42-27.

But Michigan is looking to not only beat Ohio State for the second year in a row but beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. The Buckeyes have beaten Michigan in the Shoe nine-straight games. The last time the Wolverines were able to win there was back in 2000.

The winner on Saturday will head to Indianapolis as the Big Ten East winner and face either Iowa, Purdue, or Illinois in the Big Ten Championship.

We are going to preview this big contest and the Wolverines Wire staff will make predictions on The Game.

By the numbers: Stat comparisons

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Scoring offense:

Michigan 9th (39.4 points per game)

Ohio State 1st (46.5 points per game)

Scoring defense:

Michigan 2nd (11.7 points allowed per game)

Ohio State 10th (16.9 points allowed per game)

Passing offense:

Michigan 99th (208.8 yards per game)

Ohio State 17th (289.2 yards per game)

Passing defense:

Michigan 5th (161.7 yards allowed per game)

Ohio State 11th (175.5) yards allowed per game)

Rushing offense:

Michigan 4th (243.8 yards per game)

Ohio State 20th (203.5 yards per game)

Rushing defense:

Michigan 2nd (79.5 yards allowed per game)

Ohio State 15th (107.9 yards allowed per game)

Total offense:

Michigan 23rd (452.6 yards per game)

Ohio State 8th (492.7 yards per game)

Total defense:

Michigan 1st (241.3 yards allowed per game)

Ohio State 9th (283.4 yards allowed per game)

Ohio State offense vs. Michigan defense

(AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

It’s no secret Ohio State’s offense will be the biggest challenge the Michigan defense has been presented with this season. In fact, the only other team ranked inside the top 50 that Michigan has played this season in total offense is Penn State at No. 37 averaging 434.5 yards per game.

As the numbers would suggest, the Buckeyes have a multi-dimensional offense. But the Ohio State offense starts and ends with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has put up good numbers this season completing 66% of his throws for 2,991 yards, 35 passing touchdowns, and four interceptions thrown. The junior is averaging 271.9 yards per game through the air.

The key to stopping, or slowing down rather, is getting pressure on Stroud. Pro Football Focus, the analytic site, gives the Ohio State quarterback a solid 82.9 passing grade for the season. But when Stroud faces pressure, that’s when things go south. His grade shoots down to 35.1 and he completes only 43.6% of his passes. On the other hand, when he is kept clean and has time to throw, he completes 70.8% of his passes with a 91.6 grade.

Michigan has been up and down this season maintaining pressure on the opposition and getting sacks. Shockingly, the Wolverines have compiled 31 sacks through 11 games. Last season, the Wolverines had 34 sacks in 14 games with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on the edge. But the maize and blue have done a creative job rotating in and out players for the defense to remain fresh. There have been 14 players on Michigan that have registered a half-sack or more. Mike Morris currently leads the team with 7.5 sacks this season. But the maize and blue will be up against a tough pass-blocking team on Saturday. Ohio State is second in the country in sacks allowed by giving up seven sacks this season. Pro Football Focus says the Buckeyes are the 14th-best pass-blocking team and gives them an 81.2 grade.

C.J. Stroud doesn’t put up huge numbers on his own. His supporting cast is really good. At receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. has been the star. He has caught 65 balls for 1,037 yards and 11 scores this season. Emeka Egbuka has 914 yards and eight scores this season. Former No. 1 overall recruit, Julian Fleming is third on the team catching 415 yards and six touchdowns. The big tight end, Cade Stover is relevant also. Stover has five scores this season. The Buckeyes have done all of that without Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has played in only three games this season dealing with the injury bug. While he hasn’t been ruled out yet for Saturday, it’s hard to believe he will be out there against Michigan — the last time he played was back in October against Iowa.

Michigan is going to attempt to slow down the Ohio State receiving core by countering with the nation’s fifth-best pass defense. The Wolverines aren’t great at forcing turnovers, they’ve forced 11 all year, but the secondary has been really good. According to PFF, the Wolverines are led by true freshman Will Johnson with an 81.7 coverage grade and he has allowed 15 catches all season. Fellow starter, DJ Turner has a 76.3 coverage grade and allows 46% of targets at him caught. Gemon Green, who has turned into the fourth corner, has a 75.5 grade and nickel Mike Sainristil has a 72.3 coverage grade.

The Buckeyes, like Michigan, are a little banged up at running back. Their leading back, Miyan Williams, missed last week against Maryland. Ryan Day told the media he expected both Williams and TreVeyon Henderson to practice this week for Michigan, but it’s unclear how healthy each will be. Williams has played in 10 games this season rushing for 783 yards (6.6 YPC) and 13 scores. Henderson has played in eight games running for 571 yards (5.3 YPC) and six scores. The healthiest out of the group is freshman Dallan Hayden who has really emerged in the last couple of weeks. Hayden has 503 yards (five YPC) and five touchdowns in the eight games he’s played.

Like the Ohio State pass blocking, PFF is high on the Buckeyes’ run-blocking ability. The analytic site believes Ohio State is the No. 4 run-blocking team and gives it an 83.6 grade.

The Wolverines have been really stout in stopping the run this season. There have been four teams that have run for over 100 yards this season against the Wolverines. Illinois ran for the most last weekend after it rushed for 148 yards. The combination of Mazi Smith, Mason Graham, and Kris Jenkins has done the dirty work up the middle and has not allowed much to get past them. The trio of Jenkins, Smith, and Graham have had 24, 22, and 13 stops at the line respectively this season against the run.

Michigan offense vs. Ohio State defense

(Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

As everyone in the country knows, Michigan is a run-first offense and the Wolverines may or may not be without one or two running backs on Saturday. Blake Corum went down in the first half last Saturday against Illinois but came back in the second half to carry the ball once. His backup, Donovan Edwards went out against Nebraska injured and he didn’t play on Saturday against Illinois.

The maize and blue would be hurting if Corum can’t go against Ohio State. He has run his way into the Heisman talk and has run for 1,457 yards (5.9 YPC) and 18 touchdowns this year. He has eight consecutive 100-plus rushing games in a row and he is averaging 132.4 yards per game. If Corum can or can’t go, it would be big for Michigan to get Edwards back on Saturday against Ohio State. He has rushed for 471 yards (6.7 YPC) and four scores on the ground. Edwards also has 179 yards receiving and two scores this year.

The Buckeyes No. 15 run defense could be facing true freshman CJ Stokes, walk-on Isaiah Gash, and sophomore Tavierre Dunlap on Saturday. Stokes has been effective in the limited time he’s had this season. The freshman has 268 yards on the ground while averaging a little over five yards per carry. Gash has 101 yards (5.3 YPC), and Dunlap has rushed for 46 yards (5.1 YPC).

The Ohio State linebackers, Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers, have been the best against the run this season. Eichenberg has a 90.8 run defense grade and has recorded 45 run stops. Chambers has 20 stops, DL Tyleik Williams and J.T. Tuimoloau both have 13.

The Wolverines haven’t asked J.J. McCarthy to go win them a game this season. It came close last weekend, but Michigan never went away from the run game. If the maize and blue do not have their top backs on Saturday, it’s very possible we will see what the sophomore has. He has completed 66% of his passes this season while throwing for 1,952 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions this season. He also has run for 213 yards. The only thing that has hurt Michigan and the passing game is the lack of downfield success. McCarthy is completing 30% of his passes that are 20 yards or more.

If Michigan throws the ball more on Saturday, the Wolverines’ O-line will need to keep McCarthy protected. Michigan has allowed 12 sacks this season which is the 15th-best in the country. Like the Wolverines, Ohio State has generated 31 sacks this year. Michael Hall Jr. and Jack Sawyer lead the Buckeyes with 4.5 sacks each. The Buckeyes have done a good job of forcing pressure against the opposition this year. Zach Harrison has 21, Sawyer has 16, and Tuimoloau is third with 15 pressures.

The Michigan receivers haven’t helped McCarthy much lately. Between drops and not being able to get separation down the field, it has led to a lack of success throwing the football. But McCarthy will be throwing to his main target Ronnie Bell on Saturday. Bell leads the team with 641 yards and he has found the endzone twice. Cornelius Johnson has 300 yards and leads the team with four receiving scores. Roman Wilson is another threat with superb speed and he has 272 yards through the air with three scores. Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan’s tight end, hasn’t played in a few weeks, but it sounds hopeful that he will be available on Saturday. Schoonmaker has 315 yards and two scores through the air.

Ohio State has forced 17 turnovers this season and 10 of those have been interceptions. Safety Tanner McCallister leads the team with three. According to PFF, the Buckeyes have really good safety play against the pass. Ronnie Hickman leads the team with an 89.8 coverage grade and Lathan Ransom is behind him with an 88.6 coverage grade. But the corners have been suspect against the pass according to Pro Football Focus. Denzel Burke has a 65.4 grade in coverage and has allowed 54.8% of the balls thrown his way to be caught. McCallister has a 59.8 grade and is allowing 68.6% of targets thrown his way to be caught.

Staff predictions

Wolverines Wire staff writers Isaiah Hole and Trent Knoop share their thoughts on the game, two soft predictions, one bold prediction and the final score.

Isaiah Hole:

Before the Illinois game in Week 12, I had Michigan winning, potentially in a similar, yet closer, fashion to last year. I do agree with Joel Klatt’s previous assertion that the Wolverines are built to contend with (not necessarily beat, but contend) Ohio State, but the Corum injury changes everything. It changes Michigan’s ability to control time of possession, keep the defense fresh, play ball control, and generally dictate the terms of the game. While that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, I certainly don’t anticipate it will. Michigan will need a literally perfect game plan and have more aces up its sleeve than I expect to pull this one out.

I do think there will be some surprises, and I don’t have any tangible evidence to that but the team confidence displayed in press conferences this week. They don’t seem fazed and appear even more bolstered than they were heading into The Game last year — Jim Harbaugh included. However, at this juncture, despite injuries on both teams, Michigan’s are much more dire and impactful given what we’ve seen thus far. Ohio State has shown that it can go ‘next man up’ at lot more easily than Michigan can, as well.

I still expect a close game, but I have Ohio State pulling it out.

-Soft predictions

  • Michigan passes for over 250 yards

  • The defense gets just one sack

-Bold prediction

  • Ohio State gets two late touchdowns

Final score prediction

  • Ohio State 30, Michigan 20

 

Trent Knoop:

When I made my Big Ten predictions on Wednesday I said I could see any of the four possibilities happening on Saturday: a close win by either team or a blowout by either team. But as Saturday is inching closer I’m not sure the Wolverines can win this game without Blake Corum. It’s a total mystery if Corum will be able to play on Saturday and if he does play, to what extent can he play?

Regardless if Corum plays or not, the Wolverines need to establish a run game. Michigan can’t afford to get into a shootout with Ohio State. The Buckeyes love those types of games and the maize and blue will want to keep that explosive offense on the sideline for as long as possible. Michigan defeated Ohio State last season because of how well it dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball. If the Wolverines can do the same thing this season then it’s very possible Michigan could win.

Lastly, can J.J. McCarthy win a game on his own? We know the potential is there, we’ve seen how well he can throw the deep ball early in the year, but the passing game as regressed lately. We hear about how well it looks in practice but it needs to click in the games and this could be Michigan’s last chance to show the playoff committee it can pass.

The Wolverines will need to play an almost flawless game to go into Columbus and beat Ohio State on Saturday. C.J. Stroud has an abundance of talent to throw to and the Buckeyes’ defense has been better than last season. But I’ll stick with the prediction I made on Wednesday and go with Michigan here. My prediction completely hinges on Corum playing.

-Soft predictions

  • J.J. McCarthy throws for 275 yards

  • Michigan records three sacks against Ohio State

-Bold prediction

  • CJ Stokes leads the team in rushing attempts but Blake Corum plays and leads the team in yards.

Final score prediction

  • Michigan 34, Ohio State 31

Story originally appeared on Wolverines Wire