NCAAF Preview: 2023 Rutgers football season win/loss predictions
Rutgers football had some struggles in 2022. But there is reason for some optimism this fall.
The Scarlet Knights finished last season with a 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) record, placing them seventh overall in the Big Ten East standings.
Taking an early look at Rutgers football’s 2023 schedule, the Scarlet Knights are rewarded with seven home games this upcoming season. All five of Rutgers’ road games are against Big Ten opponents, meaning that the Scarlet Knights might need to get a road win or two to be bowl eligible. Last season, Rutgers won two road games but both where non-conference games.
As for 2023, it looks different for head coach Greg Schiano and the Scarlet Knights, as their schedule has some winnable games. This upcoming season will be Schiano’s fourth season with the Scarlet Knights, and he is yet to have a winning record in his return back to the program. Bowl eligibility is possible this year, as the Scarlet Knights could go 6-6 this upcoming season.
Below are the rankings of Rutgers’ win/loss probability, starting with the most likely to lose, then the most winnable.
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An early look at Rutgers football’s 2023 schedule
No. 1 - Saturday, November 18, at Penn State Nittany Lions
Week 11
Location: University Park, PA
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Penn State leads the series 31-2
2022 Record: 11-2
2023 Prediction: Lose
Rutgers’ week 11 matchup will be extremely difficult for Scarlet Knights. It has been 34 years since the last time the Scarlet Knights have beaten the Penn State Nittany Lions. In 1988, Rutgers beat Penn State 21-16, marking the first Rutgers victory in 70 years. According to NCAA’s way-too-early college football preseason top 25, Penn State is ranked No. 5, coming off a Rose Bowl victory in 2022.
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No. 2 - Saturday, November 4, vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Week 9
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Ohio State leads the series 9-0
2022 Record: 11-2
2023 Prediction: Lose
The Scarlet Knights have yet to beat the Buckeyes since joining the Big Ten in 2024, making their week nine matchup difficult. Since 2014, Rutgers has lost by double-digit scores in every game, making Rutgers heavy underdogs in their week nine matchup. According to NCAA’s way-too-early college football preseason top 25, Ohio State is ranked No. 3, coming off a performance in the 2022 CFP.
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No. 3 - Saturday, September 23, at Michigan Wolverines
Week 4
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Michigan leads the series 8-1
2022 Record: 13-1
2023 Prediction: Lose
The Scarlet Knights finally hit the road in their week four matchup against the Michigan Wolverines. Rutgers has one win in school history against the Wolverines, beating Michigan in their Big Ten inaugurating year (2014). Since then, the Scarlet Knights have lost eight straight games. Michigan will be looking at a third consecutive conference title in 2023, ranking No. 2 in the NCAA’s way-too-early college football preseason top 25. Last season, the Wolverines lost in the College Football Playoffs Semifinals.
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No. 4 - Saturday, October 7, at Wisconsin Badgers
Week 6
Location: Madison, WI
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Wisconsin leads the series 4-0
2022 Record: 7-6
2023 Prediction: Lose
Rutgers hasn’t beaten the Wisconsin Badgers since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Wisconsin’s largest victory came in 2021 as the Badgers beat the Scarlet Knights 52-3. The Badgers brought in a new head coach, Luke Fickell, from Cincinnati, where he went 57-18 with the Bearcats. Wisconsin’s defense is always tough, making it difficult for Rutgers to put up points with their young offense. The Badgers are No. 23 in the NCAA’s way-too-early college football preseason top 25.
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No. 5 - Saturday, November 11, at Iowa Hawkeyes
Week 10
Location: Iowa City, IA
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Iowa leads the series 3-0
2022 Record: 8-5
2023 Prediction: Lose
Rutgers’ week ten matchup against the Hawkeyes is another tough Big Ten matchup. Iowa has controlled this Big Ten matchup, winning all three games since 2016. Last season, Iowa gave Rutgers their first loss of the season, 27-10. The Hawkeyes’ offense was below average, so Iowa will look to improve their scoring. They averaged only 18.15 points and 251.6 yards per game last year and still managed to win eight games. According to NCAA’s way-too-early college football preseason top 25, Iowa is ranked No. 21, coming off a victory in the Music City Bowl.
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No. 6 - Saturday, October 14, vs. Michigan State Spartans
Week 7
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Michigan State leads the series 10-4
2022 Record: 5-7
2023 Prediction: Lose
Last season the Spartans defeated the Scarlet Knight 27-21, with Rutgers playing their best football all season. The last time the Scarlet Knights beat the Spartans was in 2020, 38-27. Since then, Michigan State has been on a two-game winning streak, beating Rutgers 31-13 (2021) and 27-21 (2022). The Scarlet Knights have played the Spartans tough throughout the years, making this a questionable matchup for Rutgers.
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No. 7 - Saturday, November 25, vs. Maryland Terps
Week 12
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Maryland leads the series 11-7
2022 Record: 8-5
2023 Prediction – Win
The Scarlet Knights have played the Terps tough throughout the years, with last year being a fluke. The Terps have beaten Rutgers two seasons in a row, shutting out the Scarlet Knights in their final game of the 2022 season. The last time the Scarlet Knights beat Maryland at home was in 2017 with a 31-24 victory. This is a revenge game for Rutgers after an embarrassing loss last season.
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No. 8 - Saturday, October 21, at Indiana Hoosiers
Week 8
Location: Bloomington, IN
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Indiana leads the series 5-4
2022 Record: 4-8
2023 Prediction: Win
As of late, the Scarlet Knights have had success against Indiana, beating them the last two seasons. Last season, Rutgers beat Indiana 24-17, marking their only Big Ten victory in 2022. The Scarlet Knights will continue this success in 2023 when they defeat the Hoosiers on the road.
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No. 9 - Saturday, September 16, vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Week 3
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference – Coastal
Series Record: Virginia Tech leads the series 12-3
2022 Record: 3-8
2023 Prediction: Win
Rutgers’ week three matchup against Virginia Tech will be the third consecutive home game for the Scarlet Knights. The last time Rutgers faced VT was in 2012 when the Hokies beat the Scarlet Knights in overtime 13-10. The Hokies are riding a 12-game winning streak, but with multiple below .500 seasons, the Scarlet Knights have a high chance of beating VT this season.
No. 10 - Saturday, September 2, vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Week 1
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Big Ten
Series Record: Rutgers leads the series 3-2
2022 Record: 1-11
2023 Prediction: Win
The Northwestern Wildcats, by far, are the worst Big Ten opponent on the Scarlet Knights’ schedule. Last season, the Wildcats went 1-11 and have won four games in the past two seasons. Rutgers’ week one game will be the first Big Ten matchup for the 2023 Scarlet Knights, setting the tone for the rest of the season.
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No. 11 - Saturday, September 9, vs. Temple Owls
Week 2
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: American
Series Record: Rutgers leads the series 22-15
2022 Record: 3-9
2023 Prediction: Win
Rutgers is riding a six-game winning streak against the Owls, dating back to 2003. Last season, the Scarlet Knights defeated the Owls on the road 16-14. The last time Rutgers hosted Temple was in 2021 when the Scarlet Knights dominated the Owls 61-14. The last time the Owls had a winning season was in 2019, making this a highly winnable game for the Scarlet Knights.
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No. 12 - Saturday, September 30, vs. Wagner Seahawks
Week 5
Location: Piscataway, NJ, SHI Stadium
Time: TBA
Conference: Northeast Conference – FCS Division I-AA
Series Record: Rutgers leads the series 1-0
2023 Prediction: Win
Rutgers’ easiest opponent on their 2023 schedule will come against Wagner in week five. Last season, Rutgers scored a record 66 points against the Seahawks, something the Scarlet Knights would like to continue in 2023. Wagner is an FCS Division I-AA school, so this should be an automatic win for the Scarlet Knights.
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