Preseason look at the game-by-game win projections for the Oklahoma Sooners per ESPN’s FPI

·6 min read

Heading into the 2022 college football season, the Oklahoma Sooners are looking to return to the top of the Big 12 mountain. One of the favorites to contend for the conference title, the Sooners will have to avoid losses in several touch matchups to return to their place of prominence among their conference foes.

In each of the last two seasons, the Lincoln Riley-led Sooners dropped a pair of conference games. In 2020, it was Iowa State and Kansas State that upended the Sooners early in the year. In 2021, Baylor and Oklahoma State got the better of Oklahoma at the end of the season.

Though Oklahoma made it to the Big 12 title game, and won it, in 2020, it needed a lot of help to get there after its two early losses.

Just under two months to the start of the 2022 season opener against UTEP, ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its latest win projections. Let’s take a look at how the Sooners are projected to fare in 2022. Like last year, we’ll update this before the opener and throughout the season.

Sept. 3: UTEP Miners (Norman)

Sept. 1, 2012; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Landry Jones (12) throws a pass in the first quarter against the UTEP Miners at Sun Bowl Stadium. Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 97.9%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 4-0

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 10: Kent State Golden Flashes (Norman)

Oct. 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners fans during the game against the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 97.1%

All-Time Series: First Meeting between the two teams.

Projected running record: 2-0

Sept. 17: Nebraska Cornhuskers (Lincoln)

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 60.5%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 48-38-3

Projected running record: 3-0

Sept. 24: Kansas State Wildcats (Norman)

Sept. 18, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners cornerback D.J. Graham (middle) makes an interception in front of Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Levi Falck (88) during the fourth quarter at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 80.5%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 77-21-4

Projected running record: 4-0

Oct. 1: TCU Horned Frogs (Fort Worth)

Oct. 16, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners tight end Jeremiah Hall (27) celebrates with wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 68%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 17-5

Projected running record: 5-0

Oct. 8: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)

Oct. 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) makes a touchdown catch in front of Texas Longhorns defensive back Darion Dunn (4) during the fourth quarter at the Cotton Bowl. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cotton Bowl (Dallas)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 44.6%

All-Time Series: Texas leads 62-50-5

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 15: Kansas Jayhawks (Norman)

Oct. 23, 2021; Lawrence; Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) scores a touchdown against the Oklahoma Sooners during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 96%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 79-29-6

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 20: BYE WEEK

April 23, 2022; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables reacts during the spring game at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Oct. 27: Iowa State Cyclones (Ames, Iowa)

Nov. 20, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy (15) fumbles the ball in front of Oklahoma Sooners linebacker David Ugwoegbu (2) during the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jack Trice Stadium (Ames)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 59.2%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-7-2

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 5: Baylor Bears (Norman)

Nov. 16, 2019; Waco, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Marcus Stripling (33) and Baylor Bears offensive lineman Connor Galvin (76) in action during the game between the Bears and the Sooners at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 69.5%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-4

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 12: West Virginia Mountaineers (Morgantown)

Sept. 25, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (32) makes an interception during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium (Morgantown)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 73%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 11-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 19: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Norman)

Nov. 27, 2021; Stillwater; Oklahoma Sooners tight end Brayden Willis (9) catches a pass for a touchdown against Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse (24) during the first half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 63.9%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-19-7

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 26: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Lubbock)

Oct. 30, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners running back Marcus Major (24) runs with the ball during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jones AT&T Stadium (Lubbock)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 72%

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 23-6

Projected running record: 11-1

Summary

Sept. 18, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners cornerback D.J. Graham (9) and wide receiver Drake Stoops (12) celebrate the victory against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Oklahoma Sooners are projected to win 11 of their 12 regular-season matchups in 2022. The Red River Showdown against Texas is the only game the Sooners aren’t projected to win and that game is a coin flip every year anyway.

If Oklahoma were to go 11-1 as ESPN’s Football Power Index projects, then they’d more than likely be in the Big 12 championship game and have a great shot at playing for a College Football Playoff berth in Brent Venables’ first season in Norman.

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