Predicting the final 4 games left on the 2021 Saints schedule
We’re entering the home stretch. The New Orleans Saints are in the middle of a five-way tie for the seventh — and final — NFC playoff seed, but they can separate from the pack by going on a run these last four games. Shaking back with a dominant win over the New York Jets last week, ending the longest losing streak in Sean Payton’s career as a head coach, was a great way to start.
But it’s easier said than done. Here is a quick look at each matchup left on the 2021 Saints schedule:
Week 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
AP Photo/Jason Behnken
The Buccaneers are rolling on a four-game winning streak, and they’re favored to beat the Saints by double digits on Sunday. But they’ve been heavily favored against New Orleans before. Tom Brady’s team is 1-3 against the Saints ever since his arrival. Weird things tend to happen when they match up.
If the Saints pass rush wakes up, that might happen again. But the unit has looked sluggish all year and struggled to keep its best players on the field either due to injuries, suspension, or COVID-19 absences. Getting Cameron Jordan back in the lineup should help pressure Brady without blitzing him. But can the offense put up enough points of their own?
I’ll go out on a limb and say they will. Alvin Kamara is enough of a threat to score a touchdown or two himself, and the Buccaneers secondary has been playing so poorly this year that even the Saints pass-catchers could make some plays against them. It won’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but I like the Saints to pull off a big upset this week.
New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 20
Week 16 vs. Miami Dolphins
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This looks pretty evenly matched on paper. The Dolphins share the Saints’ 6-7 record and they’ve experienced a similarly up-and-down season. But look a little deeper and you’ll see some causes for concern.
Few quarterbacks have been as effective on run-pass option plays this year as Tua Tagovailoa, who went into Miami’s bye week with some of the best numbers on RPO’s you’ll see around the league. And you know who else has been wildly effective on similar plays? Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who ran and threw all over the Saints twice in two years. Whether it’s coaching or tendencies on the defenders themselves, New Orleans just struggles when asked to read the backfield.
So this game is looking like a hiccup in what would otherwise be a really encouraging turnaround. After demolishing the Jets and upsetting the Buccaneers to get back to .500, I think the Saints get tripped up with a very close loss to the Dolphins in prime-time.
Miami 24, New Orleans 23
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
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Joe Brady took the fall for Matt Rhule’s poor decisions at the top of the ladder in Carolina, but things haven’t gotten better for the Panthers. Pretty much every household name on their roster has been injured or benched-but-not-benched during games, with backup quarterback P.J. Walker rotating in and out of the lineup with Cam Newton for indeterminate reasons.
Carolina has fallen out of the playoff picture after losing 8 of their last 10 games. This won’t be the same squad that ran all over New Orleans back in Week 2. The Saints should win this game handily, and I like them to take that Dolphins loss on the chin and keep pushing all the way through season’s end.
Whether it’s Newton, Walker, or Sam Darnold under center when the Saints and Panthers meet again after the new year begins, I don’t see Carolina rolling into the Caesars Superdome and strolling out with a win. New Orleans battles back to win decisively.
New Orleans 33, Carolina 20
Week 18 at Atlanta Falcons
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There’s a very real chance this game sees an 8-8 Falcons team host an 8-8 Saints team with a wild-card seed on the line. It may not be a strong probability, but it’s very possible. Both the Saints and the Falcons have been too good to tank this season while also showing too many flaws to push for the division title. It’s a frustrating purgatory to inhabit.
And it could come to a head in the regular season finale. The Falcons embarrassed the Saints in New Orleans earlier this year, so this is a big opportunity for some payback. With their backs against the wall and a playoff berth on the line, I trust Sean Payton’s team to go the distance more than that team up in Atlanta. The Saints avoid a losing season and sneak into the playoffs.
New Orleans 28, Atlanta 23
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