Seattle's Felix Hernandez pitches perfect game

Felix Hernandez pitched the Seattle Mariners’ first perfect game and the 23rd in baseball history, overpowering the Tampa Bay Rays in a brilliant 1-0 victory Wednesday.

<p>Are the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes coming to an end? On Sunday night, a bevy of teams learned from the Japanese superstar’s representation that they are no longer in the running for his services. That includes the Yankees, who <a href="https://nypost.com/2017/11/22/scouts-are-conflicted-on-what-shohei-ohtanis-plan-should-be/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:were widely presumed to be favorites for Ohtani" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">were widely presumed to be favorites for Ohtani</a>, as well as—deep breath—the Red Sox, Mets, Blue Jays, Pirates, Twins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rays, Cardinals, White Sox, Nationals, Braves, and Athletics. On the other side of things are the lucky few: <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/937458753171009537" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan</a>, the Mariners and Giants will both meet with Ohtani in Los Angeles next week; the Padres are also on the docket, <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/937483245566025728" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman</a>; and the Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs are apparently still in the race (or at least not openly out of it).</p><p>As we learn which teams have dropped out or stayed alive, numerous reports have emerged that Ohtani <a href="https://apnews.com/d3e49ed0b5244e858d944f18f2231b1c/Ohtani-rules-out-Yanks,-Red-Sox,-others;-prefers-West-Coast" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:would like to sign with a West Coast team" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">would like to sign with a West Coast team</a>, and may also want to play in a smaller market. Add that to <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262688222/what-factors-matter-most-to-shohei-ohtani/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:the already extensive list of possible Ohtani preferences" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">the already extensive list of possible Ohtani preferences</a>—he wants to hit and pitch, play for a team with high-end facilities and for one that has experience with Japanese players and access to Japanese culture, <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/936600677220003841" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:but also not for a team that already has a Japanese player" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">but also not for a team that already has a Japanese player</a>—that may or may not have outsize influence on his ultimate choice. It’s safe to say that no one truly knows what Ohtani wants, save that the usual factors don’t seem to apply. After all, the Yankees can offer hundreds of millions of dollars in the future as well as a place on a star-studded roster built to win this year and down the road in the biggest media market in the league, and he immediately rejected them.</p><p>Regardless, Sunday’s flurry of activity considerably narrowed the list of contenders. Aside from those already eliminated, a number of others are either longshots—Baltimore, Cincinnati, Miami and Philadelphia (a city that Ohtani <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/12/shoehi-ohtani-phillies-ouch" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:apparently only wants to visit" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">apparently only wants to visit</a>)—or didn’t publicly express interest, including Kansas City, Colorado and Detroit. That leaves the Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs as meeting his parameters or still in the chase.</p><p>Which of those teams is likely in the lead? <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/937482516331618304" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports" class="link rapid-noclick-resp"><em>USA Today</em>’s Bob Nightengale reports</a> that the Mariners are considered by other general managers to be the favorite. That makes sense: Seattle is geographically right, a (relatively) small market, can offer him time at designated hitter or in the outfield alongside a rotation spot, and is well acquainted with Japanese players, having brought future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki state-side back in 2001.</p><p>He also fits into the Mariners roster plans. Seattle’s rotation was a total mess last season thanks to injury: Ariel Miranda led the team in innings last season despite a 5.12 ERA. The Mariners have an ace in James Paxton, but he was limited to 136 frames due to persistent and worrisome arm troubles, and ace Felix Hernandez managed only 86 2/3 innings while getting tagged for a 4.36 ERA. If Ohtani is serious about being a two-way player, then the Mariners could use the help. Nelson Cruz has the DH spot on lockdown, but he turns 37 in July. In the outfield corners, meanwhile, the Mariners are rolling with light-hitting Ben Gamel in left and Mitch Haniger in right; the latter hit well last year, posting a 146 OPS+, but played only 96 games due to injury.</p><p>All of that should create plenty of available playing time for Ohtani, perhaps with the Mariners giving him two to three starts a week spread out in the outfield and at DH alongside his starts on the mound. Other teams, though, can more easily slot him in. The Giants, for example, desperately need help in the outfield—the team managed a putrid .685 OPS among all three spots there last year—and can make Ohtani a regular in either corner while still allowing him starts in the rotation. San Diego, too, can try Ohtani in left to form a formidable young outfield with him, Manuel Margot in center and top prospect Hunter Renfroe in right, and could desperately use his arm in a bottom-of-the-barrel rotation devoid of upside (unless you’re fond of staff ace Clayton Richard).</p><p>Neither the Giants nor Padres, though, offer Ohtani much in the way of contention. San Francisco is coming off a rough 98-loss season that exposed holes up and down the roster that even Ohtani can’t plug by himself. (That calculus does change somewhat if the Giants can finish a trade for NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/03/giancarlo-stanton-trade-rumors-marlins-cardinals-giants-framework-set" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:as they’re reportedly close to doing" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">as they’re reportedly close to doing</a>.) San Diego, meanwhile, will be entering yet another year of a perpetual rebuild that hasn’t yielded much in the way of major league talent or success yet. If general manager A.J. Preller can sell Ohtani on the Padres’ potential after 273 losses over three seasons, then he’s clearly some kind of wizard.</p><p>Contention is far more in range for the six other teams still left, with the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs atop that list. Los Angeles has a ton of outfielders to find playing time for beyond Ohtani and more starting pitchers than most, but talent wins out in the end. Plus, the Dodgers can offer him the prospect of the most money down the road and a roster that was one win away from a championship while Chicago can flash its 2016 hardware and enviable roster as well. But neither the Dodgers nor Cubs (nor the Angels, for that matter) play in anything that could remotely be described as a small market.</p><p>If you want a true upset special, it’s Texas. Like the Mariners, the Rangers can offer Ohtani time in the rotation (where he’d instantly become the team’s ace) and in the outfield or at DH. Arlington is a smaller market, and crucially, the Rangers have experience with Japanese superstars, having been the home of Yu Darvish (himself a former member of Ohtani’s NPB team) for five-plus seasons. Texas also has the most money to offer right now, at $3.53 million, and while it’s clear that cash doesn’t rule everything around Shohei, that has to count for something.</p><p>Regardless, you can make a case for any of the teams left standing as being a good fit. All have flaws, all have strengths, but ultimately, it’s hard to say what matters most to Ohtani. One thing is for certain, though: We’re thankfully that much closer to MLB adding a truly dynamic talent.</p>
Where Will Shohei Ohtani Sign? The West Coast Appears to be the Safest Bet

Are the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes coming to an end? On Sunday night, a bevy of teams learned from the Japanese superstar’s representation that they are no longer in the running for his services. That includes the Yankees, who were widely presumed to be favorites for Ohtani, as well as—deep breath—the Red Sox, Mets, Blue Jays, Pirates, Twins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rays, Cardinals, White Sox, Nationals, Braves, and Athletics. On the other side of things are the lucky few: According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, the Mariners and Giants will both meet with Ohtani in Los Angeles next week; the Padres are also on the docket, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman; and the Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs are apparently still in the race (or at least not openly out of it).

As we learn which teams have dropped out or stayed alive, numerous reports have emerged that Ohtani would like to sign with a West Coast team, and may also want to play in a smaller market. Add that to the already extensive list of possible Ohtani preferences—he wants to hit and pitch, play for a team with high-end facilities and for one that has experience with Japanese players and access to Japanese culture, but also not for a team that already has a Japanese player—that may or may not have outsize influence on his ultimate choice. It’s safe to say that no one truly knows what Ohtani wants, save that the usual factors don’t seem to apply. After all, the Yankees can offer hundreds of millions of dollars in the future as well as a place on a star-studded roster built to win this year and down the road in the biggest media market in the league, and he immediately rejected them.

Regardless, Sunday’s flurry of activity considerably narrowed the list of contenders. Aside from those already eliminated, a number of others are either longshots—Baltimore, Cincinnati, Miami and Philadelphia (a city that Ohtani apparently only wants to visit)—or didn’t publicly express interest, including Kansas City, Colorado and Detroit. That leaves the Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs as meeting his parameters or still in the chase.

Which of those teams is likely in the lead? USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Mariners are considered by other general managers to be the favorite. That makes sense: Seattle is geographically right, a (relatively) small market, can offer him time at designated hitter or in the outfield alongside a rotation spot, and is well acquainted with Japanese players, having brought future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki state-side back in 2001.

He also fits into the Mariners roster plans. Seattle’s rotation was a total mess last season thanks to injury: Ariel Miranda led the team in innings last season despite a 5.12 ERA. The Mariners have an ace in James Paxton, but he was limited to 136 frames due to persistent and worrisome arm troubles, and ace Felix Hernandez managed only 86 2/3 innings while getting tagged for a 4.36 ERA. If Ohtani is serious about being a two-way player, then the Mariners could use the help. Nelson Cruz has the DH spot on lockdown, but he turns 37 in July. In the outfield corners, meanwhile, the Mariners are rolling with light-hitting Ben Gamel in left and Mitch Haniger in right; the latter hit well last year, posting a 146 OPS+, but played only 96 games due to injury.

All of that should create plenty of available playing time for Ohtani, perhaps with the Mariners giving him two to three starts a week spread out in the outfield and at DH alongside his starts on the mound. Other teams, though, can more easily slot him in. The Giants, for example, desperately need help in the outfield—the team managed a putrid .685 OPS among all three spots there last year—and can make Ohtani a regular in either corner while still allowing him starts in the rotation. San Diego, too, can try Ohtani in left to form a formidable young outfield with him, Manuel Margot in center and top prospect Hunter Renfroe in right, and could desperately use his arm in a bottom-of-the-barrel rotation devoid of upside (unless you’re fond of staff ace Clayton Richard).

Neither the Giants nor Padres, though, offer Ohtani much in the way of contention. San Francisco is coming off a rough 98-loss season that exposed holes up and down the roster that even Ohtani can’t plug by himself. (That calculus does change somewhat if the Giants can finish a trade for NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, as they’re reportedly close to doing.) San Diego, meanwhile, will be entering yet another year of a perpetual rebuild that hasn’t yielded much in the way of major league talent or success yet. If general manager A.J. Preller can sell Ohtani on the Padres’ potential after 273 losses over three seasons, then he’s clearly some kind of wizard.

Contention is far more in range for the six other teams still left, with the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs atop that list. Los Angeles has a ton of outfielders to find playing time for beyond Ohtani and more starting pitchers than most, but talent wins out in the end. Plus, the Dodgers can offer him the prospect of the most money down the road and a roster that was one win away from a championship while Chicago can flash its 2016 hardware and enviable roster as well. But neither the Dodgers nor Cubs (nor the Angels, for that matter) play in anything that could remotely be described as a small market.

If you want a true upset special, it’s Texas. Like the Mariners, the Rangers can offer Ohtani time in the rotation (where he’d instantly become the team’s ace) and in the outfield or at DH. Arlington is a smaller market, and crucially, the Rangers have experience with Japanese superstars, having been the home of Yu Darvish (himself a former member of Ohtani’s NPB team) for five-plus seasons. Texas also has the most money to offer right now, at $3.53 million, and while it’s clear that cash doesn’t rule everything around Shohei, that has to count for something.

Regardless, you can make a case for any of the teams left standing as being a good fit. All have flaws, all have strengths, but ultimately, it’s hard to say what matters most to Ohtani. One thing is for certain, though: We’re thankfully that much closer to MLB adding a truly dynamic talent.

Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais speaks with reporters during a baseball news conference Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017, in Seattle. The team finished their season at 78-84, third place in American League West. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Mariners to handle Felix Hernandez differently going forward
Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais speaks with reporters during a baseball news conference Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017, in Seattle. The team finished their season at 78-84, third place in American League West. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto speaks with reporters during a baseball news conference Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017, in Seattle. The team finished their season at 78-84, third place in American League West. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Mariners to handle Felix Hernandez differently going forward
Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto speaks with reporters during a baseball news conference Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017, in Seattle. The team finished their season at 78-84, third place in American League West. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
Mariners may manage Felix Hernandez more carefully in 2018
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
Mariners may manage Felix Hernandez more carefully in 2018
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
Mariners may manage Felix Hernandez more carefully in 2018
Felix Hernandez battled a shoulder injury for most of 2017 and the Mariners may handle him more carefully next season to keep him healthy.
<p>My pre-season MLB over/under picks—<a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/06/mlb-over-under-team-wins" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:published in early March" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">published in early March</a>, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”</p><p>Sorry about that.</p><p>As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.</p><p>There’s more.</p><p>When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.” </p><p>All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.</p><p>That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself <a href="https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listing/4M2EU47E58UJ06882/2008-mercury-mountaineer/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer</a>. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.</p><p>Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.</p><p>Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.</p><h3><strong>THE GOOD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 78.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in &#39;16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.</p><h3><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>72</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they&#39;ll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.</p><h3><strong>Baltimore Orioles</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in &#39;16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They&#39;ll hit a ton of homers, but it&#39;s hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.</p><h3><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 91.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>David Ortiz is gone, but let&#39;s not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game&#39;s No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn&#39;t sound as if they&#39;ll win less.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s <em>second-</em>best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.</p><h3><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 96.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>92</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they&#39;ll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.</p><h3><strong>Chicago White Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>67</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future&#39;s bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.</p><h3><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 73.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>68</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can&#39;t get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can&#39;t win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.</p><h3><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 93.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 102</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.</p><h3><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 80.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>87</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rockies haven&#39;t surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it&#39;s a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.</p><h3><strong>Detroit Tigers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It&#39;s tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.</p><h3><strong>Houston Astros</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>101</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The offense should be in the top five, but the front office&#39;s ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it&#39;s not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it&#39;ll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top <em>one </em>(an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.</p><h3><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 81.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.</p><h3><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 92.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>104</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There&#39;s a reason Baseball Prospectus&#39; and Fan Graphs&#39; projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They <em>again</em> had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw <em>again</em> hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.</p><h3><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 70.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>85</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to &#39;16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There&#39;s simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.</p><h3><strong>Oakland A’s</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 66.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The A&#39;s are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.</p><h3><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 72.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>66</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.</p><h3><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole&#39;s elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.</p><h3><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 88.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>83</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, <em>Baseball America</em>&#39;s No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation turned out to be <em>better</em>, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.</p><h3><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 75.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL&#39;s best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive &quot;over&quot; pick on this list.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).</p><h3><strong>Toronto Blue Jays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>76</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It&#39;s not a formula for getting better.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.</p><h3><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>97</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.</p><h3><strong>THE BAD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.</p><h3><strong>Miami Marlins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>77</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins&#39; on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL&#39;s best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won&#39;t be enough.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.</p><h3><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>86</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, &quot;It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we&#39;re maybe not doing it [right].&quot; In other words, while Milwaukee&#39;s farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.</p><h3><strong>New York Mets</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>70</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.</p><h3><strong>New York Yankees</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 83.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>91</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Brian Cashman&#39;s 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club&#39;s first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won&#39;t be by much.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.</p><h3><strong>San Diego Padres</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 64.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>71</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They&#39;ve got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won&#39;t mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors&#39; only 100-game losers.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.</p><h3><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year&#39;s key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.</p><h3><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Jerry Dipoto&#39;s hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle&#39;s spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it&#39;s a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto&#39;s fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.</p><h3><strong>Texas Rangers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.</p>
Over/Under: Which Teams Exceeded or Fell Short of Their Expectations?

My pre-season MLB over/under picks—published in early March, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”

Sorry about that.

As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.

There’s more.

When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.”

All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.

That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.

Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.

Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.

THE GOOD:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: OVER 78.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in '16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.

What happened: Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: OVER 71.5

2017 Wins: 72

We said then: The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they'll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.

What happened: The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in '16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They'll hit a ton of homers, but it's hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.

What happened: Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.

Boston Red Sox

Prediction: OVER 91.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: David Ortiz is gone, but let's not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game's No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn't sound as if they'll win less.

What happened: They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s second-best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: UNDER 96.5

2017 Wins: 92

We said then: Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they'll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.

What happened: Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.

Chicago White Sox

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 67

We said then: Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future's bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.

What happened: Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: UNDER 73.5

2017 Wins: 68

We said then: There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can't get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can't win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.

What happened: Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.

Cleveland Indians

Prediction: OVER 93.5

2017 Wins: 102

We said then: They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.

What happened: In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: OVER 80.5

2017 Wins: 87

We said then: The Rockies haven't surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it's a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.

What happened: They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.

Detroit Tigers

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It's tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.

What happened: A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.

Houston Astros

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 101

We said then: The offense should be in the top five, but the front office's ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it's not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it'll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.

What happened: It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top one (an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.

Kansas City Royals

Prediction: UNDER 81.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

What happened: They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: OVER 92.5

2017 Wins: 104

We said then: There's a reason Baseball Prospectus' and Fan Graphs' projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.

What happened: They again had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw again hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.

Minnesota Twins

Prediction: OVER 70.5

2017 Wins: 85

We said then: They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to '16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There's simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.

What happened: The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.

Oakland A’s

Prediction: OVER 66.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: The A's are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.

What happened: Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: UNDER 72.5

2017 Wins: 66

We said then: The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.

What happened: None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole's elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.

What happened: While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: UNDER 88.5

2017 Wins: 83

We said then: A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, Baseball America's No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.

What happened: The rotation turned out to be better, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.

Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: OVER 75.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL's best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive "over" pick on this list.

What happened: Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).

Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 76

We said then: Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It's not a formula for getting better.

What happened: Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 97

We said then: For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.

What happened: It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.

THE BAD:

Los Angeles Angels

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.

What happened: Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 77

We said then: The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins' on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL's best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won't be enough.

What happened: The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 86

We said then: As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, "It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we're maybe not doing it [right]." In other words, while Milwaukee's farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.

What happened: I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.

New York Mets

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 70

We said then: Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.

What happened: It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.

New York Yankees

Prediction: UNDER 83.5

2017 Wins: 91

We said then: GM Brian Cashman's 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club's first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won't be by much.

What happened: I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: UNDER 64.5

2017 Wins: 71

We said then: They've got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won't mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors' only 100-game losers.

What happened: Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year's key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.

What happened: A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.

Seattle Mariners

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: GM Jerry Dipoto's hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle's spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it's a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto's fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.

What happened: James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.

Texas Rangers

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.

What happened: Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.

<p>My pre-season MLB over/under picks—<a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/06/mlb-over-under-team-wins" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:published in early March" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">published in early March</a>, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”</p><p>Sorry about that.</p><p>As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.</p><p>There’s more.</p><p>When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.” </p><p>All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.</p><p>That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself <a href="https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listing/4M2EU47E58UJ06882/2008-mercury-mountaineer/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer</a>. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.</p><p>Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.</p><p>Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.</p><h3><strong>THE GOOD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 78.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in &#39;16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.</p><h3><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>72</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they&#39;ll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.</p><h3><strong>Baltimore Orioles</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in &#39;16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They&#39;ll hit a ton of homers, but it&#39;s hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.</p><h3><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 91.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>David Ortiz is gone, but let&#39;s not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game&#39;s No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn&#39;t sound as if they&#39;ll win less.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s <em>second-</em>best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.</p><h3><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 96.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>92</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they&#39;ll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.</p><h3><strong>Chicago White Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>67</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future&#39;s bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.</p><h3><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 73.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>68</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can&#39;t get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can&#39;t win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.</p><h3><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 93.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 102</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.</p><h3><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 80.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>87</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rockies haven&#39;t surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it&#39;s a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.</p><h3><strong>Detroit Tigers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It&#39;s tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.</p><h3><strong>Houston Astros</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>101</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The offense should be in the top five, but the front office&#39;s ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it&#39;s not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it&#39;ll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top <em>one </em>(an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.</p><h3><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 81.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.</p><h3><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 92.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>104</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There&#39;s a reason Baseball Prospectus&#39; and Fan Graphs&#39; projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They <em>again</em> had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw <em>again</em> hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.</p><h3><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 70.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>85</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to &#39;16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There&#39;s simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.</p><h3><strong>Oakland A’s</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 66.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The A&#39;s are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.</p><h3><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 72.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>66</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.</p><h3><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole&#39;s elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.</p><h3><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 88.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>83</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, <em>Baseball America</em>&#39;s No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation turned out to be <em>better</em>, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.</p><h3><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 75.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL&#39;s best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive &quot;over&quot; pick on this list.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).</p><h3><strong>Toronto Blue Jays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>76</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It&#39;s not a formula for getting better.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.</p><h3><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>97</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.</p><h3><strong>THE BAD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.</p><h3><strong>Miami Marlins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>77</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins&#39; on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL&#39;s best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won&#39;t be enough.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.</p><h3><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>86</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, &quot;It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we&#39;re maybe not doing it [right].&quot; In other words, while Milwaukee&#39;s farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.</p><h3><strong>New York Mets</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>70</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.</p><h3><strong>New York Yankees</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 83.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>91</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Brian Cashman&#39;s 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club&#39;s first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won&#39;t be by much.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.</p><h3><strong>San Diego Padres</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 64.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>71</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They&#39;ve got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won&#39;t mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors&#39; only 100-game losers.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.</p><h3><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year&#39;s key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.</p><h3><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Jerry Dipoto&#39;s hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle&#39;s spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it&#39;s a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto&#39;s fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.</p><h3><strong>Texas Rangers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.</p>
Over/Under: Which Teams Exceeded or Fell Short of Their Expectations?

My pre-season MLB over/under picks—published in early March, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”

Sorry about that.

As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.

There’s more.

When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.”

All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.

That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.

Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.

Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.

THE GOOD:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: OVER 78.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in '16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.

What happened: Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: OVER 71.5

2017 Wins: 72

We said then: The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they'll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.

What happened: The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in '16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They'll hit a ton of homers, but it's hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.

What happened: Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.

Boston Red Sox

Prediction: OVER 91.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: David Ortiz is gone, but let's not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game's No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn't sound as if they'll win less.

What happened: They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s second-best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: UNDER 96.5

2017 Wins: 92

We said then: Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they'll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.

What happened: Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.

Chicago White Sox

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 67

We said then: Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future's bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.

What happened: Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: UNDER 73.5

2017 Wins: 68

We said then: There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can't get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can't win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.

What happened: Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.

Cleveland Indians

Prediction: OVER 93.5

2017 Wins: 102

We said then: They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.

What happened: In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: OVER 80.5

2017 Wins: 87

We said then: The Rockies haven't surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it's a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.

What happened: They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.

Detroit Tigers

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It's tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.

What happened: A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.

Houston Astros

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 101

We said then: The offense should be in the top five, but the front office's ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it's not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it'll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.

What happened: It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top one (an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.

Kansas City Royals

Prediction: UNDER 81.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

What happened: They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: OVER 92.5

2017 Wins: 104

We said then: There's a reason Baseball Prospectus' and Fan Graphs' projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.

What happened: They again had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw again hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.

Minnesota Twins

Prediction: OVER 70.5

2017 Wins: 85

We said then: They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to '16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There's simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.

What happened: The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.

Oakland A’s

Prediction: OVER 66.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: The A's are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.

What happened: Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: UNDER 72.5

2017 Wins: 66

We said then: The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.

What happened: None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole's elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.

What happened: While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: UNDER 88.5

2017 Wins: 83

We said then: A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, Baseball America's No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.

What happened: The rotation turned out to be better, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.

Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: OVER 75.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL's best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive "over" pick on this list.

What happened: Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).

Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 76

We said then: Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It's not a formula for getting better.

What happened: Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 97

We said then: For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.

What happened: It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.

THE BAD:

Los Angeles Angels

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.

What happened: Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 77

We said then: The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins' on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL's best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won't be enough.

What happened: The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 86

We said then: As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, "It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we're maybe not doing it [right]." In other words, while Milwaukee's farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.

What happened: I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.

New York Mets

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 70

We said then: Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.

What happened: It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.

New York Yankees

Prediction: UNDER 83.5

2017 Wins: 91

We said then: GM Brian Cashman's 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club's first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won't be by much.

What happened: I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: UNDER 64.5

2017 Wins: 71

We said then: They've got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won't mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors' only 100-game losers.

What happened: Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year's key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.

What happened: A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.

Seattle Mariners

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: GM Jerry Dipoto's hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle's spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it's a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto's fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.

What happened: James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.

Texas Rangers

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.

What happened: Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.

<p>My pre-season MLB over/under picks—<a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/06/mlb-over-under-team-wins" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:published in early March" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">published in early March</a>, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”</p><p>Sorry about that.</p><p>As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.</p><p>There’s more.</p><p>When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.” </p><p>All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.</p><p>That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself <a href="https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listing/4M2EU47E58UJ06882/2008-mercury-mountaineer/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer</a>. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.</p><p>Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.</p><p>Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.</p><h3><strong>THE GOOD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 78.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in &#39;16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.</p><h3><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>72</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they&#39;ll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.</p><h3><strong>Baltimore Orioles</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in &#39;16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They&#39;ll hit a ton of homers, but it&#39;s hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.</p><h3><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 91.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>David Ortiz is gone, but let&#39;s not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game&#39;s No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn&#39;t sound as if they&#39;ll win less.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s <em>second-</em>best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.</p><h3><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 96.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>92</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they&#39;ll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.</p><h3><strong>Chicago White Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>67</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future&#39;s bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.</p><h3><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 73.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>68</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can&#39;t get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can&#39;t win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.</p><h3><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 93.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 102</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.</p><h3><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 80.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>87</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rockies haven&#39;t surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it&#39;s a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.</p><h3><strong>Detroit Tigers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It&#39;s tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.</p><h3><strong>Houston Astros</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>101</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The offense should be in the top five, but the front office&#39;s ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it&#39;s not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it&#39;ll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top <em>one </em>(an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.</p><h3><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 81.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.</p><h3><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 92.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>104</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There&#39;s a reason Baseball Prospectus&#39; and Fan Graphs&#39; projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They <em>again</em> had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw <em>again</em> hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.</p><h3><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 70.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>85</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to &#39;16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There&#39;s simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.</p><h3><strong>Oakland A’s</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 66.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The A&#39;s are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.</p><h3><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 72.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>66</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.</p><h3><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole&#39;s elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.</p><h3><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 88.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>83</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, <em>Baseball America</em>&#39;s No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation turned out to be <em>better</em>, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.</p><h3><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 75.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL&#39;s best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive &quot;over&quot; pick on this list.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).</p><h3><strong>Toronto Blue Jays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>76</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It&#39;s not a formula for getting better.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.</p><h3><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>97</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.</p><h3><strong>THE BAD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.</p><h3><strong>Miami Marlins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>77</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins&#39; on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL&#39;s best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won&#39;t be enough.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.</p><h3><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>86</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, &quot;It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we&#39;re maybe not doing it [right].&quot; In other words, while Milwaukee&#39;s farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.</p><h3><strong>New York Mets</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>70</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.</p><h3><strong>New York Yankees</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 83.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>91</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Brian Cashman&#39;s 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club&#39;s first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won&#39;t be by much.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.</p><h3><strong>San Diego Padres</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 64.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>71</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They&#39;ve got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won&#39;t mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors&#39; only 100-game losers.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.</p><h3><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year&#39;s key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.</p><h3><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Jerry Dipoto&#39;s hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle&#39;s spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it&#39;s a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto&#39;s fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.</p><h3><strong>Texas Rangers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.</p>
Over/Under: Which Teams Exceeded or Fell Short of Their Expectations?

My pre-season MLB over/under picks—published in early March, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”

Sorry about that.

As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.

There’s more.

When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.”

All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.

That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.

Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.

Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.

THE GOOD:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: OVER 78.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in '16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.

What happened: Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: OVER 71.5

2017 Wins: 72

We said then: The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they'll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.

What happened: The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in '16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They'll hit a ton of homers, but it's hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.

What happened: Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.

Boston Red Sox

Prediction: OVER 91.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: David Ortiz is gone, but let's not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game's No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn't sound as if they'll win less.

What happened: They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s second-best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: UNDER 96.5

2017 Wins: 92

We said then: Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they'll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.

What happened: Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.

Chicago White Sox

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 67

We said then: Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future's bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.

What happened: Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: UNDER 73.5

2017 Wins: 68

We said then: There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can't get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can't win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.

What happened: Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.

Cleveland Indians

Prediction: OVER 93.5

2017 Wins: 102

We said then: They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.

What happened: In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: OVER 80.5

2017 Wins: 87

We said then: The Rockies haven't surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it's a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.

What happened: They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.

Detroit Tigers

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It's tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.

What happened: A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.

Houston Astros

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 101

We said then: The offense should be in the top five, but the front office's ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it's not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it'll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.

What happened: It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top one (an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.

Kansas City Royals

Prediction: UNDER 81.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

What happened: They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: OVER 92.5

2017 Wins: 104

We said then: There's a reason Baseball Prospectus' and Fan Graphs' projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.

What happened: They again had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw again hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.

Minnesota Twins

Prediction: OVER 70.5

2017 Wins: 85

We said then: They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to '16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There's simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.

What happened: The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.

Oakland A’s

Prediction: OVER 66.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: The A's are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.

What happened: Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: UNDER 72.5

2017 Wins: 66

We said then: The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.

What happened: None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole's elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.

What happened: While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: UNDER 88.5

2017 Wins: 83

We said then: A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, Baseball America's No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.

What happened: The rotation turned out to be better, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.

Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: OVER 75.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL's best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive "over" pick on this list.

What happened: Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).

Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 76

We said then: Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It's not a formula for getting better.

What happened: Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 97

We said then: For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.

What happened: It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.

THE BAD:

Los Angeles Angels

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.

What happened: Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 77

We said then: The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins' on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL's best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won't be enough.

What happened: The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 86

We said then: As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, "It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we're maybe not doing it [right]." In other words, while Milwaukee's farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.

What happened: I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.

New York Mets

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 70

We said then: Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.

What happened: It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.

New York Yankees

Prediction: UNDER 83.5

2017 Wins: 91

We said then: GM Brian Cashman's 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club's first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won't be by much.

What happened: I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: UNDER 64.5

2017 Wins: 71

We said then: They've got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won't mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors' only 100-game losers.

What happened: Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year's key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.

What happened: A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.

Seattle Mariners

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: GM Jerry Dipoto's hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle's spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it's a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto's fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.

What happened: James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.

Texas Rangers

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.

What happened: Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.

<p>My pre-season MLB over/under picks—<a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/06/mlb-over-under-team-wins" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:published in early March" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">published in early March</a>, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”</p><p>Sorry about that.</p><p>As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.</p><p>There’s more.</p><p>When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.” </p><p>All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.</p><p>That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself <a href="https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listing/4M2EU47E58UJ06882/2008-mercury-mountaineer/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer</a>. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.</p><p>Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.</p><p>Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.</p><h3><strong>THE GOOD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 78.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in &#39;16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.</p><h3><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>72</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they&#39;ll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.</p><h3><strong>Baltimore Orioles</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in &#39;16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They&#39;ll hit a ton of homers, but it&#39;s hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.</p><h3><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 91.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>David Ortiz is gone, but let&#39;s not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game&#39;s No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn&#39;t sound as if they&#39;ll win less.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s <em>second-</em>best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.</p><h3><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 96.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>92</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they&#39;ll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.</p><h3><strong>Chicago White Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>67</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future&#39;s bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.</p><h3><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 73.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>68</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can&#39;t get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can&#39;t win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.</p><h3><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 93.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 102</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.</p><h3><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 80.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>87</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rockies haven&#39;t surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it&#39;s a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.</p><h3><strong>Detroit Tigers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It&#39;s tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.</p><h3><strong>Houston Astros</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>101</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The offense should be in the top five, but the front office&#39;s ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it&#39;s not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it&#39;ll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top <em>one </em>(an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.</p><h3><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 81.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.</p><h3><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 92.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>104</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There&#39;s a reason Baseball Prospectus&#39; and Fan Graphs&#39; projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They <em>again</em> had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw <em>again</em> hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.</p><h3><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 70.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>85</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to &#39;16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There&#39;s simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.</p><h3><strong>Oakland A’s</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 66.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The A&#39;s are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.</p><h3><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 72.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>66</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.</p><h3><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole&#39;s elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.</p><h3><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 88.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>83</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, <em>Baseball America</em>&#39;s No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation turned out to be <em>better</em>, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.</p><h3><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 75.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL&#39;s best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive &quot;over&quot; pick on this list.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).</p><h3><strong>Toronto Blue Jays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>76</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It&#39;s not a formula for getting better.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.</p><h3><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>97</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.</p><h3><strong>THE BAD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.</p><h3><strong>Miami Marlins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>77</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins&#39; on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL&#39;s best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won&#39;t be enough.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.</p><h3><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>86</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, &quot;It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we&#39;re maybe not doing it [right].&quot; In other words, while Milwaukee&#39;s farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.</p><h3><strong>New York Mets</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>70</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.</p><h3><strong>New York Yankees</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 83.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>91</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Brian Cashman&#39;s 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club&#39;s first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won&#39;t be by much.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.</p><h3><strong>San Diego Padres</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 64.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>71</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They&#39;ve got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won&#39;t mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors&#39; only 100-game losers.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.</p><h3><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year&#39;s key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.</p><h3><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Jerry Dipoto&#39;s hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle&#39;s spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it&#39;s a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto&#39;s fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.</p><h3><strong>Texas Rangers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.</p>
Over/Under: Which Teams Exceeded or Fell Short of Their Expectations?

My pre-season MLB over/under picks—published in early March, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”

Sorry about that.

As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.

There’s more.

When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.”

All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.

That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.

Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.

Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.

THE GOOD:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: OVER 78.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in '16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.

What happened: Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: OVER 71.5

2017 Wins: 72

We said then: The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they'll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.

What happened: The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in '16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They'll hit a ton of homers, but it's hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.

What happened: Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.

Boston Red Sox

Prediction: OVER 91.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: David Ortiz is gone, but let's not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game's No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn't sound as if they'll win less.

What happened: They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s second-best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: UNDER 96.5

2017 Wins: 92

We said then: Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they'll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.

What happened: Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.

Chicago White Sox

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 67

We said then: Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future's bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.

What happened: Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: UNDER 73.5

2017 Wins: 68

We said then: There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can't get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can't win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.

What happened: Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.

Cleveland Indians

Prediction: OVER 93.5

2017 Wins: 102

We said then: They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.

What happened: In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: OVER 80.5

2017 Wins: 87

We said then: The Rockies haven't surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it's a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.

What happened: They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.

Detroit Tigers

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It's tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.

What happened: A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.

Houston Astros

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 101

We said then: The offense should be in the top five, but the front office's ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it's not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it'll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.

What happened: It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top one (an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.

Kansas City Royals

Prediction: UNDER 81.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

What happened: They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: OVER 92.5

2017 Wins: 104

We said then: There's a reason Baseball Prospectus' and Fan Graphs' projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.

What happened: They again had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw again hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.

Minnesota Twins

Prediction: OVER 70.5

2017 Wins: 85

We said then: They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to '16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There's simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.

What happened: The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.

Oakland A’s

Prediction: OVER 66.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: The A's are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.

What happened: Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: UNDER 72.5

2017 Wins: 66

We said then: The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.

What happened: None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole's elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.

What happened: While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: UNDER 88.5

2017 Wins: 83

We said then: A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, Baseball America's No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.

What happened: The rotation turned out to be better, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.

Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: OVER 75.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL's best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive "over" pick on this list.

What happened: Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).

Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 76

We said then: Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It's not a formula for getting better.

What happened: Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 97

We said then: For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.

What happened: It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.

THE BAD:

Los Angeles Angels

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.

What happened: Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 77

We said then: The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins' on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL's best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won't be enough.

What happened: The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 86

We said then: As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, "It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we're maybe not doing it [right]." In other words, while Milwaukee's farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.

What happened: I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.

New York Mets

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 70

We said then: Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.

What happened: It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.

New York Yankees

Prediction: UNDER 83.5

2017 Wins: 91

We said then: GM Brian Cashman's 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club's first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won't be by much.

What happened: I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: UNDER 64.5

2017 Wins: 71

We said then: They've got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won't mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors' only 100-game losers.

What happened: Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year's key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.

What happened: A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.

Seattle Mariners

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: GM Jerry Dipoto's hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle's spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it's a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto's fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.

What happened: James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.

Texas Rangers

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.

What happened: Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.

<p>My pre-season MLB over/under picks—<a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/06/mlb-over-under-team-wins" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:published in early March" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">published in early March</a>, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”</p><p>Sorry about that.</p><p>As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.</p><p>There’s more.</p><p>When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.” </p><p>All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.</p><p>That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself <a href="https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listing/4M2EU47E58UJ06882/2008-mercury-mountaineer/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer" class="link rapid-noclick-resp">this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer</a>. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.</p><p>Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.</p><p>Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.</p><h3><strong>THE GOOD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Arizona Diamondbacks</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 78.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in &#39;16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.</p><h3><strong>Atlanta Braves</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>72</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they&#39;ll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.</p><h3><strong>Baltimore Orioles</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in &#39;16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They&#39;ll hit a ton of homers, but it&#39;s hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.</p><h3><strong>Boston Red Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 91.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>93</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>David Ortiz is gone, but let&#39;s not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game&#39;s No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn&#39;t sound as if they&#39;ll win less.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s <em>second-</em>best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.</p><h3><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 96.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>92</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they&#39;ll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.</p><h3><strong>Chicago White Sox</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>67</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future&#39;s bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.</p><h3><strong>Cincinnati Reds</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 73.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>68</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can&#39;t get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can&#39;t win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.</p><h3><strong>Cleveland Indians</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 93.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins:</strong> 102</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.</p><h3><strong>Colorado Rockies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 80.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>87</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rockies haven&#39;t surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it&#39;s a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.</p><h3><strong>Detroit Tigers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 84.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It&#39;s tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.</p><h3><strong>Houston Astros</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>101</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The offense should be in the top five, but the front office&#39;s ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it&#39;s not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it&#39;ll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top <em>one </em>(an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.</p><h3><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 81.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.</p><h3><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 92.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>104</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>There&#39;s a reason Baseball Prospectus&#39; and Fan Graphs&#39; projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>They <em>again</em> had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw <em>again</em> hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.</p><h3><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 70.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>85</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to &#39;16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There&#39;s simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.</p><h3><strong>Oakland A’s</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 66.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The A&#39;s are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.</p><h3><strong>Philadelphia Phillies</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 72.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>66</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.</p><h3><strong>Pittsburgh Pirates</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>75</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole&#39;s elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.</p><h3><strong>St. Louis Cardinals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 88.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>83</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, <em>Baseball America</em>&#39;s No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation turned out to be <em>better</em>, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.</p><h3><strong>Tampa Bay Rays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 75.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL&#39;s best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive &quot;over&quot; pick on this list.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).</p><h3><strong>Toronto Blue Jays</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>76</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It&#39;s not a formula for getting better.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.</p><h3><strong>Washington Nationals</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>97</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.</p><h3><strong>THE BAD:</strong></h3> <h3><strong>Los Angeles Angels</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>80</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.</p><h3><strong>Miami Marlins</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 76.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>77</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins&#39; on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL&#39;s best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won&#39;t be enough.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.</p><h3><strong>Milwaukee Brewers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 71.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>86</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, &quot;It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we&#39;re maybe not doing it [right].&quot; In other words, while Milwaukee&#39;s farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.</p><h3><strong>New York Mets</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 90.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>70</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.</p><h3><strong>New York Yankees</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 83.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>91</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Brian Cashman&#39;s 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club&#39;s first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won&#39;t be by much.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.</p><h3><strong>San Diego Padres</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>UNDER 64.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>71</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>They&#39;ve got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won&#39;t mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors&#39; only 100-game losers.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.</p><h3><strong>San Francisco Giants</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 87.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>64</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year&#39;s key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.</p><h3><strong>Seattle Mariners</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>GM Jerry Dipoto&#39;s hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle&#39;s spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it&#39;s a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto&#39;s fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.</p><h3><strong>Texas Rangers</strong></h3><p><strong>Prediction: </strong>OVER 85.5</p><p><strong>2017 Wins: </strong>78</p><p><strong>We said then: </strong>Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.</p><p><strong>What happened: </strong>Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.</p>
Over/Under: Which Teams Exceeded or Fell Short of Their Expectations?

My pre-season MLB over/under picks—published in early March, in which I predicted which of the league’s 30 teams would exceed Vegas’s projected wins total and which would fall short—came with a disclaimer: “Of course, you probably shouldn’t act on any of them.”

Sorry about that.

As it turned out, my picks went 21-9 this year. That means that if you had wagered $100 on each, and factor in the oddsmaker’s published vigs (which mean that you drop the whole bet if you lose but take home between $71.46 and $100 if you win), you’d currently be $906.59 richer.

There’s more.

When I tweeted out the story, I included my six “best bets.”

All six of them hit. Had you put down $100 more on a six-team parlay, you’d have won an additional $4,468.07.

That’s a total profit of $5,374.66, which means that you could now buy yourself this sweet 2008 Mercury Mountaineer. Just 148,961 miles on that baby.

Of course, nobody did this, including me. (If you did – ping me at @BenReiter). Still, the lesson? Gambling is easy, and you can never lose.

Here’s when I went right, and where I went wrong.

THE GOOD:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: OVER 78.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: The only good part of a nightmare season like the one the D-Backs had in '16? You have to wake up eventually. Morning could arrive in the form of a healthy A.J. Pollock and a rebounding Zack Greinke, superstars as recently as 2015 who could account for 10 extra wins.

What happened: Pollock stayed relative healthy (112 games played) and Greinke improved (4.37 ERA to 3.20) – but so did the rest of a pitching staff that allowed an incredible 231 fewer runs than it did last year.

Atlanta Braves

Prediction: OVER 71.5

2017 Wins: 72

We said then: The rebuilding Braves acquired several short-term veterans (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Brandon Phillips) to help them avoid outright putridity in their new ballpark. The real reason they'll do it is a lineup that rapidly improved last season, from 30th—dead last—in runs before the All-Star Game to sixth after it.

What happened: The offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, did get better – to the tune of a 75-run boost. That was just enough to barely hit the over with a final day win, on the heels of a six-game losing streak.

Baltimore Orioles

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: Maybe Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman can become co-aces, but the Orioles still have a rotation that will include Wade Miley (5.37 ERA in '16) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.44). They'll hit a ton of homers, but it's hard to win 85 games with a staff like that.

What happened: Their 232 homers were the league’s fifth-most – but not nearly enough to counterbalance a starting staff that was indeed the game’s worst, with a 5.74 ERA. As anticipated, no starter other than Bundy or Gausman had an ERA under 5.00.

Boston Red Sox

Prediction: OVER 91.5

2017 Wins: 93

We said then: David Ortiz is gone, but let's not overreact. This is a club that had an AL-best +184 run differential and added possibly the best starter in the league, Chris Sale. The Sox also get a full season from the game's No. 1 prospect, Andrew Benintendi. Doesn't sound as if they'll win less.

What happened: They missed Big Papi, and still do, as their run differential declined to +117 and they slugged an AL-low 168 bombs. Sale, though, was at least the league’s second-best starter, leading a staff that was bettered in the AL by only the Indians’.

Chicago Cubs

Prediction: UNDER 96.5

2017 Wins: 92

We said then: Winning 97 games is hard. Over the past decade, just 1.7 clubs per year have done it. The champs are a lock to run away with the NL Central, but they'll rely on three starters in their 30s (Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester), any or all of whom could begin to regress.

What happened: Well, four teams won 97 this year, but the Cubs weren’t one of them. Arrieta, Lackey and Lester, perhaps feeling their age and last October’s extra workload, saw their combined ERA jump from 2.95 to 4.16.

Chicago White Sox

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 67

We said then: Adam Eaton and Chris Sale have already been traded from the rebuilding South Siders. Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana and David Robertson could soon join them. The future's bright, but for now things will get worse as the Sox wait for their newly acquired prospects to mature.

What happened: Of the players mentioned, only Abreu remained with the Sox until the season’s end, leading to an Under-clinching 30-45 second half. But, damn, those prospects.

Cincinnati Reds

Prediction: UNDER 73.5

2017 Wins: 68

We said then: There is little reason to expect much improvement here. Joey Votto can't get better—his league-dominating second-half OPS last season was 1.158—but he can't win by himself, and a bullpen that gave up a record-smashing 103 homers added only Drew Storen.

What happened: Votto (1.032 OPS) was ridiculous, and he actually got some help from Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez, all of whom slugged 24+ home runs. But the pitching (NL-worst 5.19 ERA) was execrable in all facets.

Cleveland Indians

Prediction: OVER 93.5

2017 Wins: 102

We said then: They won the second-most games in the AL last season despite losing their best hitter (Michael Brantley) for nearly all of it and two of their best pitchers (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) by its end. Can they win as many with those three healthy and a new slugger in Edwin Encarnacion? Seems likely.

What happened: In fact, they should have won even more games than they did – 107, based on their MLB-best +254 run differential. This was always free money.

Colorado Rockies

Prediction: OVER 80.5

2017 Wins: 87

We said then: The Rockies haven't surpassed 80 wins since 2010. The offense is as potent as ever, but it's a newly promising rotation fronted by Jon Gray—and supported by a deep bullpen that added Greg Holland and Mike Dunn—that could have them flirting with .500.

What happened: They actually scored slightly less this year – 824 runs, versus 845 last year. But Gray (3.67 ERA) did lead a staff that improved enough (4.91 ERA to 4.50) to account for a 12-win bump.

Detroit Tigers

Prediction: UNDER 84.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Tigers look like contenders, with a power-packed lineup and a rotation led by a rejuvenated Justin Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. But they have just one top-100 prospect. It's tough to predict that nothing will go wrong for an aging club, making the under the safe pick.

What happened: A ton went wrong—including terrible declines by Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jordan Zimmermann—and Verlander won’t be around for the rebuild that is now in full swing.

Houston Astros

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 101

We said then: The offense should be in the top five, but the front office's ability to add a top-end starter is what could push the club into the mid-90s. If it's not a trade for someone like Chris Archer, Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana, it'll be the promotion of fireballing prospect Francis Martes.

What happened: It was actually a trade for Justin Verlander – but by then the Astros were already 80-53, with the Over a lock. An offense that turned out to be not top five, but top one (an MLB-best 892 runs scored) will do that for you.

Kansas City Royals

Prediction: UNDER 81.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The unthinkable death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident deprived a thin rotation of its ace. A slow start could snowball and force GM Dayton Moore to trade away key players before their free agency, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

What happened: They started slow—10-20—but Moore, not wanting to prematurely end the winning era he’d built, didn’t trade anyone. Maybe he should have, as a mediocre finish followed and the club now faces an uncertain future.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Prediction: OVER 92.5

2017 Wins: 104

We said then: There's a reason Baseball Prospectus' and Fan Graphs' projection models have L.A. at, respectively, 98 and 94 wins. Despite having no starter top 176 innings in 2016 and losing Clayton Kershaw for more than two months, they still comfortably took the NL West crown. The Dodgers are loaded.

What happened: They again had no starter top 176 innings. Kershaw again hit the DL, albeit only for just over a month this time. They still won the most games since the `04 Cardinals. Plus, Cody Bellinger. Loaded indeed.

Minnesota Twins

Prediction: OVER 70.5

2017 Wins: 85

We said then: They dropped 24 wins from 2015 to '16, so they only have to pick up half of those to hit the over. There's simply too much young talent in Minnesota—including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano—for them to continue to be this bad.

What happened: The young players mentioned were all great: Berrios went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA; Sano hit 28 homers; Buxton was the club’s second-ranked WAR leader (3.5). It added up to one of the odder three-season swings in baseball history, from 83 wins to 59 to 84.

Oakland A’s

Prediction: OVER 66.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: The A's are stuck in a purgatory between contending and rebuilding. But will they have their worst season in two decades? Unless Billy Beane goes into full teardown mode, a healthy Sonny Gray and a decent bullpen (buoyed by Santiago Casilla) makes that improbable.

What happened: Gray was good – 11-6 with a 3.43 ERA before Beane traded him to the Yankees. What really allowed them to avoid putridity was their surprising power: they quietly hit 233 homers this year, the fourth most in baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: UNDER 72.5

2017 Wins: 66

We said then: The Phillies lucked into their 71 wins last year: Their majors-worst –186 run differential suggests they should have won only 62 games. After a modest off-season (additions included Clay Buchholz, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders), improvement for the future-focused club is unlikely.

What happened: None of those additions did much—aside from Kendrick, who was traded to Washington—and their luck turned. They won four fewer games than they should have, based on their -92 run differential, though even average fortune wouldn’t have resulted in an Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 75

We said then: A 20-game drop from 2015 hinged on two factors: Ace Gerrit Cole got hurt, and their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen, declined dramatically. Cole's elbow might hold up, but McCutchen is no lock to return to his MVP days. An eight-win bounce appears too high.

What happened: While McCutchen was good again – his OPS spiked from .766 to .848 – the club was otherwise punchless, second to last with 151 homers. And while Cole topped 200 innings, he did so while pitching to a career-worst 4.26 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals

Prediction: UNDER 88.5

2017 Wins: 83

We said then: A rotation that had a middling 4.33 ERA last year was supposed to be bolstered by the flamethrowing Alex Reyes, Baseball America's No. 4 overall prospect. But the 22-year-old tore his UCL in February, banishing any thought that St. Louis might challenge the Cubs.

What happened: The rotation turned out to be better, with a ninth-ranked 4.11 ERA, thanks largely to Lance Lynn (3.43 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (3.64). But another middling season from the offense resulted in a second straight mediocre finish.

Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction: OVER 75.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: The Rays are perennially underfunded. In 2016 they were unlucky, too. Normal fortune, plus one of the AL's best rotations and a couple of advanced pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) make them the most attractive "over" pick on this list.

What happened: Their luck was appropriate, as one of four teams (along with the Braves, Red Sox and Rockies) whose Pythagorean record perfectly matched their real one. While the rotation got just 2.2 innings out of DeLeon and Honeywell, it was still the AL’s fifth best (4.12 ERA).

Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: UNDER 85.5

2017 Wins: 76

We said then: Will Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce adequately replace Edwin Encarnacion, the departed AL RBI king? Probably not. Otherwise, this is now an aging club, with 15 members of its likely 25-man roster older than 31. It's not a formula for getting better.

What happened: Morales and Pearce barely combined to outproduce Encarnacion (41 homers and 122 RBIs, versus 38 and 107), but there are, you know, two of them. That creaky roster spent 1,747 days on the DL, third most in the majors.

Washington Nationals

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 97

We said then: For half a decade the Nationals have alternated 95+ win seasons with seasons of 86 wins or fewer. This is supposed to be the latter, but new import Adam Eaton, electric young shortstop Trea Turner and the return after a down year of a 10-WAR Bryce Harper will stop the oscillating.

What happened: It stopped, even though Eaton tore his ACL in April, Turner was out two months with a broken wrist and Harper, who himself missed more than 50 games, ended up with a 4.7 WAR. A sixth-ranked offense and third-ranked rotation helped them overcome all that.

THE BAD:

Los Angeles Angels

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 80

We said then: Mike Trout, with his annual 10 WAR, will never let the Angels be terrible. But two starters (Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano) lost to torn UCLs and a No. 1—Garrett Richards—trying to come back from one will mean an eighth straight season without a playoff win.

What happened: Trout was incredible, with a 6.8 WAR—the majors’ sixth best—in just 113 games, the others lost to a torn thumb. Heaney and Richards made only 11 starts. I don’t know. Andrelton Simmons was great? I guess, just, Trout.

Miami Marlins

Prediction: UNDER 76.5

2017 Wins: 77

We said then: The September boating death of Jose Fernandez was devastating in so many ways, the least of which is to the Marlins' on-field fortunes. They still have one of the NL's best outfields, but a rotation topped by Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez won't be enough.

What happened: The rotation was indeed awful, with a 5.12 ERA. The outfield was even better than expected, as Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich slugged 114 homers and drove in 337 runs – just enough to cost me a 22nd win.

Milwaukee Brewers

Prediction: UNDER 71.5

2017 Wins: 86

We said then: As owner Mark Attanasio told MLB.com in January, "It is essential that we do this rebuild correctly, and I think if we get too hung up on wins and losses, we're maybe not doing it [right]." In other words, while Milwaukee's farm system is excellent, its major league roster is lacking.

What happened: I definitely didn’t anticipate 30+ homers from Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames, nor sub-3.90 ERAs from Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. David Stearns is a good G.M.

New York Mets

Prediction: OVER 90.5

2017 Wins: 70

We said then: Bartolo Colon is gone—!—but the Mets made the playoffs in 2016 despite a ridiculous run of injuries: Only one regular, Curtis Granderson, played more than 142 games, and they eventually lost 80% of their projected rotation. Even average health should translate into at least 95 wins.

What happened: It can always get worse, when you’re the Mets.

New York Yankees

Prediction: UNDER 83.5

2017 Wins: 91

We said then: GM Brian Cashman's 2016 trade-deadline maneuverings mean the Yankees of 2019 will be a force. But what about in the interim? Avoiding the club's first losing season since 1992 seems a reasonable goal. A suspect rotation behind Masahiro Tanaka suggests if they achieve it, it won't be by much.

What happened: I didn’t imagine that Luis Severino would vault into becoming a Cy Young contender, nor that CC Sabathia would return to being a borderline one. And, AARON JUDGE.

San Diego Padres

Prediction: UNDER 64.5

2017 Wins: 71

We said then: They've got one star-level hitter left, Wil Myers, and their new veteran rotation leader, Jered Weaver, can no longer throw even 88 miles per hour. The farm system is fertile, but it won't mature in time to keep the Padres from becoming the majors' only 100-game losers.

What happened: Weaver was horrible (he retired in August with a 7.44 ERA), and the Padres were horrible – much more horrible than their record. Their -212 run differential should, mathematically, have resulted in 13 extra losses. I guess losing 100 games is hard.

San Francisco Giants

Prediction: OVER 87.5

2017 Wins: 64

We said then: The Giants have won 88, 84 and 87 games over the last three years. They have virtually all of last year's key pieces and seem a lock to finish in that range again. A full season of Matt Moore and a solid new closer in Mark Melancon should be worth an extra win over last year.

What happened: A motor bike accident for Madison Bumgarner. Simultaneous regressions from Melancon and Moore, as well as Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Not a single hitter among the league’s top 126 in homers. Et cetera.

Seattle Mariners

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: GM Jerry Dipoto's hyperactive winter brought 26 new faces to Seattle's spring camp. The nucleus, though, remains the same—and it's a good one, as the club ranked sixth in runs scored and eighth in ERA in 2016. Dipoto's fiddling should, at worst, ensure a repeat performance.

What happened: James Paxton: 24 starts. Felix Hernandez: 16 starts. Hisashi Iwakuma: six starts. Ariel Miranda: 29 starts. That’s what happened.

Texas Rangers

Prediction: OVER 85.5

2017 Wins: 78

We said then: Yes, the Rangers played over their heads last year; they only had a +8 run differential. But a 10-win decline seems too precipitous for an offense loaded with talent young (Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor) and old (Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli) and a rotation topped by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.

What happened: Their run differential was just 25 runs worse, but they won 17 fewer games. Ignore the luck gods at your peril.

Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Hernandez sharp, Mariners hit 4 homers in 7-1 win over A's
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez works against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at the Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics
OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at the Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at the Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics
OAKLAND, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at the Oakland Coliseum on September 25, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
Seattle Mariners&#39; Felix Hernandez looks out from the dugout during a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners' Felix Hernandez looks out from the dugout during a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners' Felix Hernandez looks out from the dugout during a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to a Texas Rangers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Odor's grand slam sends Rangers past Mariners 8-6
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to a Texas Rangers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez, left, smiles at Texas Rangers&#39; Adrian Beltre as Beltre heads off the field after grounding out during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. Hernandez had commented to Beltre about how quickly he ran to first. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Odor's grand slam sends Rangers past Mariners 8-6
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez, left, smiles at Texas Rangers' Adrian Beltre as Beltre heads off the field after grounding out during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. Hernandez had commented to Beltre about how quickly he ran to first. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez yells as he leaves the mound after being removed during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Odor's grand slam sends Rangers past Mariners 8-6
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez yells as he leaves the mound after being removed during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to first base on a pick-off attempt against the Texas Rangers in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to first base on a pick-off attempt against the Texas Rangers in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to first base on a pick-off attempt against the Texas Rangers in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez yells as he leaves the mound after being removed during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez yells as he leaves the mound after being removed during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez yells as he leaves the mound after being removed during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners reacts as he walks off the field after being pulled fourth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners reacts as he walks off the field after being pulled fourth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: From left, catcher Mike Zunino #3 of the Seattle Mariners, third baseman Kyle Seager #15, starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34, first baseman Yonder Alonso #10 and second baseman Robinson Cano #22 wait for manager Scott Servais at the pitcher&#39;s mound fourth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: From left, catcher Mike Zunino #3 of the Seattle Mariners, third baseman Kyle Seager #15, starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34, first baseman Yonder Alonso #10 and second baseman Robinson Cano #22 wait for manager Scott Servais at the pitcher's mound fourth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Shin-Soo Choo #17 of the Texas Rangers greets Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers after both scored on single by Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning of a game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Shin-Soo Choo #17 of the Texas Rangers greets Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers after both scored on single by Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning of a game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers hits a two-run single off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners to score Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers and Shin-Soo Choo #17 of the Texas Rangers game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers hits a two-run single off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners to score Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers and Shin-Soo Choo #17 of the Texas Rangers game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Adrian Beltre #29 of the Texas Rangers congratulates Delino DeShields #3 of the Texas Rangers after DeShields scored on a fielder&#39;s choice by Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners and error by third baseman Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Adrian Beltre #29 of the Texas Rangers congratulates Delino DeShields #3 of the Texas Rangers after DeShields scored on a fielder's choice by Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers off of starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners and error by third baseman Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning game at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez, left, smiles at Texas Rangers&#39; Adrian Beltre as Beltre heads off the field after grounding out during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. Hernandez had commented to Beltre about how quickly he ran to first. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez, left, smiles at Texas Rangers' Adrian Beltre as Beltre heads off the field after grounding out during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. Hernandez had commented to Beltre about how quickly he ran to first. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez, left, smiles at Texas Rangers' Adrian Beltre as Beltre heads off the field after grounding out during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. Hernandez had commented to Beltre about how quickly he ran to first. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to a Texas Rangers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to a Texas Rangers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez throws to a Texas Rangers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Starter Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during the first inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 20: Starter Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during the first inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 20, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers&#39; Shin-Soo Choo of South Korea connects on a pitch from Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers' Shin-Soo Choo of South Korea connects on a pitch from Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers' Shin-Soo Choo of South Korea connects on a pitch from Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez in a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley (27) shakes hands with Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez as Hernandez leaves in the fourth inning a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley (27) shakes hands with Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez as Hernandez leaves in the fourth inning a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley (27) shakes hands with Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez as Hernandez leaves in the fourth inning a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Texas Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez had some fun during last night’s Mariners-Rangers game.
Adrian Beltre and Felix Hernandez have a playful rivalry that the world doesn't deserve
Texas Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez had some fun during last night’s Mariners-Rangers game.
Texas Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez had some fun during last night’s Mariners-Rangers game.
Adrian Beltre and Felix Hernandez have a playful rivalry that the world doesn't deserve
Texas Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez had some fun during last night’s Mariners-Rangers game.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez walks to the dugout after being pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez walks to the dugout after being pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez walks to the dugout after being pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez and Mike Zunino, right, walk to the mound as Hernandez waits to be pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez and Mike Zunino, right, walk to the mound as Hernandez waits to be pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez and Mike Zunino, right, walk to the mound as Hernandez waits to be pulled in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers in the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws to the Texas Rangers during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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