Phillies looking good to make playoffs, per simulation

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Phillies looking good to make playoffs, per simulation originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

A whole lot can happen with 70-some odd games yet to play in the regular season, but one well-known simulation predictor site has some good news for Phillies fans.

FiveThirtyEight, a site that largely centers on political predictions but also uses its computer evaluations for the sports world, has performed 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the MLB regular season, and the Phillies are a playoff team in 66 percent of those simulations.

It predicts that the Phillies will finish the season with an 88-74 record, even with the Padres and seven games behind the Atlanta Braves, which would make them the second Wild Card team. The Phillies own the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Diego.

The site has the Mets winning the NL East with 97 wins, the Brewers as the NL Central division champions with an 88-74 record, and the Dodgers as the NL West champs and the overall one-seed with a record of 106-56.

The site updates its playoff odds periodically throughout the season. Prior to opening day, the Phillies were given a 51% chance to earn a playoff spot. Back on June 1, two days before the Phillies fired Joe Girardi and replaced him with interim manager Rob Thomson, they were just 25% to make it.

Our partners at PointsBet have the Phillies as a 50/50 shot at making the postseason. You can bet $110 to win $100 for the team to make the postseason, and the same bet to miss it.