Betting: Genesis Scottish Open Golf Preview

Pamela Maldonado gives her top picks for the Genesis Scottish Open from North Berwick, Scotland.

Video Transcript

PAMELA MALDONADO: It's a new week in the PGA, just not on home soil. We move over to the Scottish Open, played at the Renaissance Club, a par 71 just under 7,300 yards on paper. There are four par 5's, three of which are over 575 yards; five par 3's, three of which are over 200 yards; plus four par 4's, all over 475 yards.

So the course is playing a lot longer than you'll see on the scorecard. These greens are also really slow. Players are used to fast. This is not that because the greens are so undulated.

Some of the stats that I'm looking at are we don't have strokes gained data from previous tournaments. So, instead, I'm generalizing and sticking to strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained tee to green, capable putters, and those that do well on long courses, because we could have windy conditions, of which it's only going to extend the course that much longer.

There are two players that I'm looking at to contend, one of which is Matthew Fitzpatrick, minus-110 for a top 20, 18 to 1 for a win. Since April, Fitzpatrick is second in the field in strokes gained tee to green, fourth in strokes gained total, has gained off the tee and ball striking in seven straight tournaments, has gained putting in four of his last five, all of which has led to a Fitzpatrick win for his first PGA title at the US Open.

Here at this tournament, at this course, Fitzpatrick took a T2 last year and a T14 back in 2019. Now, I'm not interested in necessarily backing Fitzpatrick to win at 18 to 1, though it is a fair number. But a top 20 at minus-110 are definitely fair odds. You can even consider a top 10 at plus-200.

The second player that has me interested is Justin Thomas. His odds for a top 20 are minus-140 and 14 to 1 for a win. However, the odds that has me interested is plus-165 for top 10. In 2022, this year, Thomas is first in strokes gained tee to green. He is first in strokes gained total, third in strokes gained in ball striking. And here at this tournament, at this course, Thomas took a T8 just last year and a T9 back in 2019.

Now, if I'm talking about how this course is longer in actuality than it is on paper, Thomas is first from 150 yards out. And he is top 10 from 200-plus out. Plus, Thomas is third in strokes gained total on courses of 7,300 yards or more. So these are the two players that I do like to contend, Justin Thomas and Matthew Fitzpatrick. You can find odds for both players at the Yahoo Sportsbook and more.

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