PGA Championship Odds and Betting Preview
It’s time for the second major of the 2023 PGA Tour season! Oak Hill Country Club is the site for this event, located in Rochester, New York. The last time we saw the PGA Championship played at Oak Hill CC came back in 2013 when Jason Dufner recorded a monstrous -7-under-par second round to climb up the leaderboard early and hold onto the lead for the final two rounds. Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jason Day, and Dustin Johnson were some notable names who managed a T10 finish here a decade ago, so it will be interesting to see how well each of these golfers performs throughout the week.
As it goes with nearly all PGA Tour majors, birdies will be much harder to come by compared to recently played events like the AT&T Byron Nelson, Wells Fargo Championship, and Mexico Open at Vidanta. A big reason for minimal red scorecards can be attributed to the numerous par 4 holes that tup well over 400 yards, opening with back-to-back par 4s on the front nine while closing out the back nine with three more par 4s that all exceed 460 yards. Distance and accuracy will be premium skills to possess off the tee and approach the green. Bentgrass greens mean putting surfaces will run fast, while the square footage of these greens is on the smaller side, flanked by relocated white sand bunkers and undulations surrounding the greens.
The field is loaded with talent, just like every major, led by Jon Rahm at 7/1 and Scottie Scheffler close behind at +750. Let’s look at the outright betting odds, course layout, and players who possess the skill and form to raise the Wanamaker Trophy at the 2023 PGA Championship during the second of four majors scheduled on the PGA Tour.
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PGA Championship Betting Odds
2023 PGA Championship Betting Preview
2022 - Justin Thomas (-5)
2021 - Phil Mickelson (-6)
2020 - Collin Morikawa (-13)
2019 - Brooks Koepka (-8)
2018 - Brooks Koepka (-16)
Relevant Betting Stats
Greens in Regulation percentage
Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
Sand Save percentage
Strokes Gained Putting
Oak Hill Country Club East Course is a par 70 that tips just south of 7,400 yards. Designed by Donald Ross, the course underwent updates in 2020, adding exclusively Bentgrass greens and bunker relocations, while also incorporating a new drainage system and reducing the number of trees on the property. Oak Hill CC last hosted the PGA Championship in 2013, meaning golfers who have prior experience here like Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott could be facing several new elements that will force them to adapt during the first couple of rounds.
Only one par 5 exists on the front nine and back nine, with four par 3s evenly distributed, creating challenging conditions to maintain a red scorecard. Players will face five consecutive par 4s from Hole 6 - Hole 10 while closing out with three consecutive par 4s on the back nine. The fairways are more open than we've seen in recent events, but the greens are on the smaller side, so players who can find greens in regulation or scramble consistently will climb the leaderboard. While there are a limited number of water hazards to navigate, doglegged fairways and small Bentgrass greens will demand precision all weekend.
Top Players To Bet For Outright PGA Championship Winner
Jon Rahm (+750) (Bet $100 to collect $850) FanDuel has the best Jon Rahm odds
This isn’t a surprising pick, in fact, it is considered a chalky investment to back Jon Rahm. Even with all of the labels you can put on betting the outright favorite, Rahm has hardly any flaws in his game this season. Whether it’s his driver, irons, or putter, the 28-year-old Spaniard seems to have no trouble producing red on his scorecard. He’s battled through adversity, too, getting off to sluggish starts or a poor round in the middle of an event, only to wind up storming back with four outright wins and eight T10 finishes in 12 events this year. Rahm went out quietly at Southern Hills during the 2022 PGA Championship, but I expect a vastly improved result in 2023. Hop on 7/1 odds now before they shorten in the coming days.
Brooks Koepka (+2100) (Bet $100 to collect $2,200) Go to FanDuel for the best Brooks Koepka odds
We could wind up seeing Brooks Koepka battling Jon Rahm for the outright win, just like we saw during the first major at The Masters a month ago. The LIV golfer has won two of the previous five PGA Championship events, winning consecutively in 2018 and 2019. Back and knee injuries have hampered Koepka, but he’s still one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. If he can sink a few more putts on the Bentgrass surface, which wound up being a huge obstacle down the stretch at Augusta National, then Koepka will return huge value at 20/1 odds, which is essentially 3x value we’re landing betting on Rahm.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3300) Bet $100 to collect $3,400 Head to BetMGM for the best Matthew Fitzpatrick odds
I don’t often back Matthew Fitzpatrick, but his game is built for a course like Oak Hill. The 28-year-old Englishman just beat Jordan Spieth during a multi-hole playoff at RBC Heritage, and he earned his first career win during the U.S. Open last year, so Fitzpatrick is rounding into form nicely ahead of the 2023 PGA Championship. He logged a T5 finish at Southern Hills last year and could be in store for another strong finish this time, ranking 21st in total strokes gained, including 23rd putting and 24th in total driving, which combines accuracy and distance. Fitzpatrick is also a top-20 scrambler, which will be a massive asset to lean on during the rigors of Oak Hill. I love the value we’re getting at 28/1 for Fitzpatrick’s outright odds this week, so don’t hesitate to lay a unit accordingly.
Sam Burns (+4600) (Bet $100 to collect $4,700) For the best Sam Burns odds go to FanDuel
Sam Burns is a highly volatile player who can be frustrating to bet on because he looks untouchable when he’s dialed in. Last year, the 26-year-old Louisiana native logged a T20 finish at Southern Hills and had finishes of sixth, T29, and T15 until missing the cut at Wells Fargo Championship a couple of weeks ago. Burns is ranked fifth in strokes gained putting, which will come in handy on the Bentgrass surfaces, while he ranks 21st in total driving. Around the green and par 3 holes tend to be obstacles for Burns, but he is ranked 57th in scrambling, which is good enough to overcome errant approach shots. It’s 50/1 for a reason, but I like the strengths Burns possesses and acknowledge that if he can gain momentum early, he’ll be a riser up the leaderboard once the cut line is enforced and the field is whittled in half on Saturday. It helps that he converts 36.7 percent of his birdie attempts, which is eighth-best on the PGA Tour, while also ranking fifth in one-putt percentage. A slow start typically eliminates Burns from contention, but at a course where birdies will be fleeting, Burns has a chance to gain the edge with his powerful driver and accurate putting.