Let's cut to the chase. I’m fading Scottie Scheffler this week.
The PGA tour heads to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson event before the PGA Championship next week in New York. TPC Craig Ranch is a really easy course. KH Lee won in back-to-back years scoring 25- and 26-under. You need to be able to make birdies. You make birdies with stellar iron play, knocking it close to the pin and making putts. That’s the part of Scheffler’s game I’m fading, the putting.
Here’s the one full tournament head-to-head matchup to bet this week. These are 9-3-1 after splitting last week in the Wells Fargo Championship.
Tyrrell Hatton +190 vs. Scottie Scheffler
The Englishman may have found his game again. After three top-six finishes between February and March, including a runner-up in the Players Championship, Hatton hit a bit of a wall with three straight sub-par performances outside the Top 30, including a missed cut in the Valero Texas Open. I wagered on him that week. I was there. He was brutal to watch. However, Hatton has bounced back with a T19 in RBC Heritage and T3 in Wells Fargo Championship last week. He gained nearly six strokes with his irons in the latter tournament and gained strokes with his putter in both tournaments.
TPC Craig Ranch is a Bentgrass greens course. Hatton’s best putting surface is on Bentgrass. Not only does he have momentum coming into the week but now he'll be on a surface where he excels. On the other hand, Scheffler has been consistently struggling with putting, losing strokes in four of his last five tournaments. He’s still the best iron player and ball striker in the field. It’s that ability that's helped Scheffler to no worse than a T12 in nine events this year, including two tour wins.
I’m banking on this being more of a warmup event for Scheffler. He hasn't played in nearly a month, so he can work on any trouble areas before the PGA Championship next week. Meanwhile, Hatton has only one career win on his belt and could really look to roll any bit of momentum into win number two. Having played TPC Craig Ranch twice and losing strokes putting both times, I’m betting the putting struggles continue for Scheffler.