After a 2-0 start, Penn State appears to be trending upward. At least, that’s what the math says in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index.
Penn State is up to No. 13 in ESPN’s FPI, but the Nittany Lions are still a longshot to come out on top of the Big Ten east and the Big Ten championship picture for now. Penn State’s projected record according to the FPI math comes out to 8.6-3.4, which we can round up to 9-3 or down to 8-4, depending on how you want to interpret that figure. Either way, this could be a big weekend for Penn State to sway the numbers more in their favor.
Penn State is on the road for the second time in its first three games, and it will be another wild atmosphere as Penn State visits Auburn. Auburn is lagging in the FPI at No. 40 overall, and a win over Penn State would likely surge their ranking as a result.
Penn State’s FPI comes out to 14.2 after two weeks of play. The offense has certainly been putting up the points, but the defensive numbers from Week 1 at Purdue are still a little too much to counterbalance too much with such a small sample size.
Ohio State is still the heavy favorite to win the Big Ten according to the updated FPI. The Buckeyes have a 62.7% chance to win the Big Ten according to the FPI calculations. That is the highest percentage among any team in the country for their respective conferences. Michigan has the second-best odds to win the Big Ten with a 12.4% chance. Although Michigan State has a slightly higher FPI ranking (No. 11), the Spartans have a smaller percent chance to win the Big Ten (3.8%) than Penn State (5.1%).
Based on the updated FPI, the four teams with the best chance to reach the College Football Playoff entering Week 3 are hardly a surprise; Alabama (83.9%), Ohio State (79.9%), Georgia (69.9%), and Clemson (46.0%).
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