The Patriots Line: Are 2-0 Raiders an upset special vs. Pats? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Remember Bill Parcells' famous saying, "You are what your record says you are"?
The Tuna's words may not apply to Sunday's game between New England and Las Vegas.
The 2-0 Raiders have a leg up on the 1-1 Patriots in the NFL standings and are fresh off an upset win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.
But are they a better team than Bill Belichick, Cam Newton and Co.? Oddsmakers and experts don't seem to think so.
Here are the latest Patriots-Raiders lines for the teams' Week 3 matchup at Gillette Stadium. (Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet.)
Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots -245, Raiders +195
Total: Over 47.5 points (-105), Under 47.5 points (-115)
A peek at NFL pundits' predictions suggests New England is a justified favorite over Jon Gruden's club.
FiveThirtyEight's Win Probability: Patriots 68%, Raiders 32%
ESPN's FPI: Patriots 63.4% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Pro Football Talk: Patriots 28, Raiders 24 (Michael David Smith)
Patriots 30, Raiders 20 (Mike Florio)
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Patriots 28, Raiders 24
Bleacher Report: Patriots 28, Raiders 17
Sporting News: Patriots 30, Raiders 24
Why are experts so bullish on the Patriots? For starters, Newton looked brilliant in Week 2, passing for 397 yards (the third-highest total of his career) while rushing for two scores.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, is 2-0 but allowed 30 points to the lowly Carolina Panthers in Week 2 and is dealing with some key injuries, as running back Josh Jacobs, tight end Darren Waller and offensive tackle Trent Brown all didn't practice Thursday.
So, how should you play this matchup? Here are some betting trends to consider for Sunday's game, courtesy of Rotoworld's EDGE Finder:
Trend No. 1: The Patriots are 51-26 against the spread following a loss in the Bill Belichick era and have covered in nine of their last 13 such games.
Trend No. 2: The Raiders have lost five consecutive games coming off a Monday night contest in the previous week and are 1-4 against the spread in those games.
Trend No. 3: New England is 6-4 against the spread over its last 10 games as a home favorite in the month of September.
Finally, here's our game pick for Patriots-Raiders:
Our pick: Patriots -5.5
Let's face it: Belichick's Patriots aren't losing two games in a row and aren't losing at home. Newton should be able to air it out against a Raiders secondary that's allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL. Derek Carr will test New England's defense, but Belichick will make sure Darren Waller doesn't beat him. Patriots 30, Raiders 23.