The Patriots Line: Should Ravens be on upset alert? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Remember the days when the question wasn't whether the New England Patriots would win at home, but by how much? It's safe to say those days are gone.
The Patriots enter their Week 10 matchup with the Ravens as heavy underdogs, and no one is surprised: New England hasn't beaten a team outside the winless New York Jets since late September, while Baltimore's only loss in that same span was to the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple the teams' respective records (3-5, 6-2) with the Patriots' laundry list of injuries, and you'll understand why Bill Belichick's club is facing its biggest home point spread since Nov. 18, 2001.
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The Patriots are chasing a touchdown for just the third time since their 9-7 season in 2002. That means sportsbooks weren't exactly impressed by New England's last-second win over the New York Jets last Monday.
But do Cam Newton and Co. have a shot at keeping this contest somewhat close at Gillette Stadium? Here's a roundup of experts' predictions.
FiveThirtyEight's Win Probability: Ravens 67%, Patriots 33%
ESPN's FPI: Ravens 66.3% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Pro Football Talk: Ravens 28, Broncos 17 (Michael David Smith)
Ravens 24, Patriots 20 (Mike Florio)
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Ravens 35, Patriots 17
Bleacher Report: Ravens 27, Patriots 17
Sporting News: Ravens 28, Patriots 18
You won't find any pundits predicting an outright upset, while most see Baltimore covering the 7-point spread with ease.
What does history tell us? Check out these three betting trends, courtesy of Rotoworld's EDGE Finder:
Trend No. 1: The Patriots have been a home underdog two times in the last 15 years. They won both games (both during the 2014 season) by more than 20 points.
Trend No. 2: New England is 4-10-1 against the spread dating to Week 12 of the 2019 season (including playoffs) and has failed to cover in four of its last five games.
Trend No. 3: The Ravens have won nine consecutive games outright when favored on the road and are 4-1-2 against the spread in their last seven games as road favorites.
Will Lamar Jackson and the Ravens take care of business to extend that road favorite winning streak to 10 games?
Here's our game pick for Patriots-Ravens:
Our pick: Ravens -7
You may have seen this stat already, but it bears repeating: The Ravens boast the NFL's best rushing offense (170.1 yards per game), while the Patriots own the NFL's eighth-worst rushing defense (131.0 yards allowed per game). Bill Belichick could gear up to take away Baltimore's strength -- except his pass defense allows an NFL-high 8.4 yards per attempt. No answers for Baltimore's offense means no shot at an upset. Ravens 30, Patriots 17.