Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are home underdogs vs. Bills for first time ever

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to be underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time.

The Buffalo Bills are favored by 3 points at BetMGM ahead of the teams’ massive Week 6 matchup. The game is the biggest of the NFL season so far and a rematch of the wild divisional playoff game won by the Chiefs in January after they forced overtime on a drive with 13 seconds to go in regulation.

Mahomes is famously awesome against the spread as an underdog and the Chiefs have never been underdogs at home when he’s been the starting quarterback. The Chiefs are now 7-0-1 against the spread in games that Mahomes starts after they closed as 1-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. The Chiefs easily won that game, 41-31.

All eight of those games have been either on the road or at a neutral site. Mahomes’ first game as an underdog was his first NFL start in Week 17 of the 2017 season. The Chiefs were 3-point dogs and won the game by three.

KC was an underdog four times in 2018 and covered three times and pushed once. They then won outright as underdogs once in 2019 and once in 2020. The game at Tampa Bay less than two weeks ago was the first time KC was an underdog since Week 3 of the 2020 season.

Both Buffalo and Kansas City enter Week 6 at 4-1 after home wins in Week 5, though Buffalo’s was a bit easier than Kansas City’s. The Bills blew out the Steelers as Josh Allen and Gabriel Davis torched the Pittsburgh secondary. The Chiefs had to come back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Raiders, 30-29, as Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow ran into each other during the Raiders’ final offensive play of the game.

A win for the Bills would be the team’s second consecutive regular season victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead. While the Chiefs got the bigger win in the playoffs in 2021, the Bills beat the Chiefs, 38-20, in Week 5 of last year’s regular season.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Oct. 10, 2022 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have never lost against the spread as underdogs and have never been underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)