Part 9 of the 10 most interesting players to watch this offseason: Todd Gurley
Rife with juicy narratives, the NFL remains one of the nation’s most original and long-standing reality shows. From August through February, the drama is televised in hour long episodes. Throughout the spring and summer, the intrigue spills beyond the sticks, enticing viewers with tales of cunning, redemption, and betrayal. At the center of these unfolding plot lines, often exists a player. Whether they’re returning from injury, moving teams, or grasping at relevance, these men captivate our attention.
Over the next few weeks, I’ll be examining the 10 most interesting players of the offseason. As their situations develop, updates will be made to each story. The hope is that this becomes a hub of conversation for the league’s most compelling names… and devoted aficionados.
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Clearing at least 1,200 scrimmage yards every year since entering the league in 2015, Gurley has been a top-eighteen fantasy producer. Since being paired with Sean McVay, he’s been a league-winner, managing the most scores (21 total TDs in 2018 and 19 total TDs in 2017) at the position in back-to-back efforts.
Much of his success, of course, is in large part due to his massive opportunity share (86.2%, RB2 in 2018 and 73.2%, RB4 in 2017). Top-five in rushing attempts for three consecutive seasons, the Georgia product has averaged nearly 18 carries and three catches per contest. He’s averaged just under 23 total touches per game with McVay. Over his four-year career, Gurley has either carried the rock or hauled in a pass a total of 1,229 times.
Heading into last fall, the Rams signed Gurley to a four-year extension worth $57.5 million, clearly planning to ride their workhorse well beyond the immediate future. The plan was working … until late December when Gurley sat out Weeks 16 and 17 with a mysterious, non-structural knee issue. The drama surrounding Gurley’s knee continued through the postseason, creating space for C.J. Anderson and fueling the #RBdoesntmatter conversation.
While Les Snead and McVay attempted to get out in front of the issue at the Combine, their answers remained vague. Neither would admit Gurley even had an injury, let alone describe its severity. McVay simply stated that Gurley was currently “feeling good” and blamed himself for not getting the stud more involved during the playoffs. Snead was a bit more forthright, but still refused to address the issue head on, simply suggesting that the team may adjust the back’s workload in order to keep him “fresh.”
Thanks to the journalistic efforts of Jeff Howe, we now have some clarity on Gurley’s health. Two weeks ago The Athletic contributor reported that Gurley has arthritis in the same knee that required surgery after an ACL tear in 2014. The expected treatment is stem cell therapy, which only a handful of players have received. Arthritis is not reversible, though there’s some evidence that the aforementioned modality could be successful in alleviating Gurley’s pain and in keeping him on the field.
🎶 💃Which song best describes your feelings about Todd Gurley's upcoming 2019 season from a #fantasyfootball perspective?🎶🕺
— Liz Loza (@LizLoza_FF) March 11, 2019
Question marks surrounding both Gurley’s usage and his long-term career continue to linger. The Rams figure to secure insurance behind No. 30, and are additionally likely to monitor his touches. It is worthwhile to note that Gurley can produce in a tandem — as he did during the Divisional Round versus the Cowboys — when the team is playing with a lead. When game flow doesn’t lean in his favor, however, the result can be halting, as they were in the NFC Championship matchup.
So can fantasy managers trust Gurley to produce in 2019? I think the short answer is “yes.” Will he command a top-five draft pick? No. Without a guaranteed 20 touches per game and increasing durability concerns, Gurley’s elite status is no longer a foregone conclusion. But even without that floor, he remains an incredible talent getting paid a lot of (guaranteed) money on a team chasing a Super Bowl.
With six months to prepare, Gurley should be ready to feast by September. There’s a chance, of course, that he fades down the stretch, but that’s true of any RB. Allowing the current narrative to depress his stock should provide gutsy bargain-driven managers plenty of opportunities to pounce.
Get social and continue the conversation with Liz on Twitter and Instagram @LizLoza_FF.
