Packers vs. Bengals preview: Who has the advantage in Week 5?
The Green Bay Packers (3-1) have a chance to win a fourth-straight game when Matt LaFleur’s team heads to Cincinnati to play the ascending Bengals (3-1) on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium. Both teams are currently leading their respective divisions, creating a fascinating NFC-AFC showdown in Week 5.
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
In our weekly preview series, Zach Kruse from Packers Wire and Chris Roling from Bengals Wire went deep into the matchup to determine who has the advantage at the five key factors for winning football games in the NFL.
QB play
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Packers Wire: Aaron Rodgers has thrown eight touchdown passes (with a ninth touchdown rushing) over the last three games, all Packers wins. He’s getting the ball out quick and decisively, helping the offense stay in rhythm and making him look more and more like the NFL MVP from a year ago. Rodgers is the best in the business when playing on time from clean pockets. Joe Burrow is playing really well, especially from clean pockets, but the second-year passer can’t compete with Rodgers’ arm or mind. However, the gap here isn’t massive. In fact, I doubt quarterback play will be the deciding factor in this game. Both quarterbacks should play well.
Bengals Wire: Joe Burrow has completed 72.9 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns against four interceptions despite 11 sacks behind a so-so offensive line. He’s managed to make a mini second-year leap on his reconstructed knee after playing in only 10 games as a rookie. Offseason hype about more power via a re-tooled throwing motion has shown up on the field too, primarily when throwing to the outside hash or on the majority of his four touchdown connections with Ja’Marr Chase. To top it off, his mind for the game is as-advertised — he’s already checked into two game-winning plays that set up game-winning kicks. He’s not Rodgers — nobody is — but he’s certainly on an interesting upward trajectory.
Advantage: Packers
Line of scrimmage
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Packers Wire: The Packers offensive line should get back Elgton Jenkins, who has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but the group is now losing rookie center Josh Myers to a finger injury. The reshuffling continues. Matt LaFleur and offensive line coach Adam Stenavich have worked miracles in getting this group ready to play each week despite injuries. But there’s no rest for the weary; the Packers offensive line faces another big test in the Bengals defensive front, which features game-disrupting players. On defense, the Packers won’t have Za’Darius Smith (IR), but Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary and Preston Smith can still wreck games. The defensive front played better last week, but it’s been a disappointing group overall to start 2021.
Bengals Wire: Cincinnati’s offensive line has bounced back nicely from a miserable first couple of games. Some of that is just finding consistency. Second-round pick Jackson Carman hasn’t been perfect, but his superb athleticism at right guard has been an upgrade over the last two games. Defensively, this is the nastiest front seven the Bengals have had since maybe 2015. D.J. Reader is a force now that he’s back healthy and big-money free agent Trey Hendrickson has quickly shown that last year in New Orleans wasn’t a fluke. Low-key additions Larry Ogunjobi and B.J. Hill have even been very productive for a front that rotates many names across a variety of formations.
Advantage: Draw
Turnovers
(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Packers Wire: The Packers had a late fumble last week, but the offense has just the one turnover since Week 1, while the defense has six takeaways during the current three-game winning streak. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers will always be amongst the best offenses at protecting the football. Then again, in the last meeting between these two teams in 2017, Rodgers threw a pick-six. The Packers defense is seventh in the NFL in takeaway percentage, but they won’t have All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. Overall, Matt LaFleur’s team is plus-two in the turnover department overall in 2021 but plus-five over the last three games. The Packers have long used advantages in the turnover category to fuel wins.
Bengals Wire: Burrow has thrown four picks after just five in 10 games last year, but some of that is his getting risky while attempting comebacks — three of those came in one game. So far, the Bengals only have a minus-one turnover differential after picking off three passes and recovering a fumble. The defense, mostly thanks to star safety Jessie Bates, is good at creating turnovers, while the offense, headed up by a high-percentage attack and Burrow’s acumen, doesn’t cough it up much.
Advantage: Packers
Situational
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Packers Wire: The Packers are trending in the right direction on offense, especially on third down. They have converted 44.4 percent of third down chances in 2021, good for seventh in the NFL. And few offenses have been better over the last three seasons in the red zone, even if the numbers don’t reflect the Packers as a dominant team inside the 20-yard line to start this season. Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett draw up good stuff in the scoring area for Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams every week. The defense has situational problems, at least statistically speaking. The Packers are 30th on third down and tied for last in the red zone. Green Bay is one of just two teams to give up touchdowns on every red zone trip this season. The Packers defense is built on forcing teams to go on long drives to score, but the group must be better at getting off the field. This has been a bend-and-break defense too often in 2021.
Bengals Wire: The Bengals are just 17-of-35 on third-down attempts (37.8 percent). They’ve kept penalties to a minimum at least, getting called for just 23 infractions, costing them 199 yards. As a play-caller though, Zac Taylor has been all over the place, like a now-infamous 2nd-and-14 run with Samaje Perine. Some of the scheme restrictions are presumably in place to protect Burrow’s knee, as things get much, much better when they are lifted. Defensively, coordinator Lou Anarumo has mostly been superb, putting his multiple front to work in a variety of fun ways (five down linemen, sometimes three safeties).
Advantage: Draw
Injury situation
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Packers Wire: The Packers are in a tough spot. David Bakhtiari is on the PUP list. Za’Darius Smith is on IR. Jaire Alexander is out for Sunday and likely headed for IR. Elgton Jenkins is questionable. That’s four of the team’s best eight players. The Packers will get back Kevin King and Krys Barnes this week, but they hardly make up for the losses. The Bengals have a big advantage here in terms of health. The Packers will be without several game-changing players on Sunday.
Bengals Wire: We won’t know Joe Mixon’s status until Saturday, but it’s safe to presume he’ll be on a pitch count at best. Luckily for the Bengals, losing a running back isn’t that big of a deal. Corners Trae Waynes and Chidobe Awuzie are good to go after popping up on the injury report. Wideout Tee Higgins and safety Jessie Bates will return and starting center Trey Hopkins has a green light, too. Besides the season-ending injury to breakout rookie pass-rusher Joseph Ossai, the Bengals have had a superb streak of good injury luck to start the year.
Advantage: Bengals
Verdict: Advantage Packers, slightly
This game looks much closer than expected. The Packers have an advantage at quarterback, but it isn’t a massive one, and the Bengals are right there with Matt LaFleur’s team at the line of scrimmage, in the turnover department and with situational football. Expect a good contest on Sunday in Cincinnati. The team that can gain an advantage at the line or get a game-changing turnover or an important late stop could escape with a win here. Can the Packers overcome all the injured talent and win a big game on the road against an ascending team?
1
1
